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Author: Ali Alichi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513523465
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 17
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Book Description
The gap between potential and actual output—the output gap—is a key variable for policymaking. This paper adapts the methodology developed in Blagrave and others (2015) to estimate the path of output gap in the U.S. economy. The results show that the output gap has considerably shrunk since the Great Recession, but still remains negative. While the results are more robust than other existing methodologies, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the estimates.
Author: Mr.Alvar Kangur
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513512544
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 42
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Book Description
We study the properties of the IMF-WEO estimates of real-time output gaps for countries in the euro area as well as the determinants of their revisions over 1994-2017. The analysis shows that staff typically saw economies as operating below their potential. In real time, output gaps tend to have large and negative averages that are largely revised away in later vintages. Most of the mis-measurement in real time can be explained by the difficulty in predicting recessions and by overestimation of the economy’s potential capacity. We also find, in line with earlier literature, that real-time output gaps are not useful for predicting inflation. In addition, countries where slack (and potential growth) is overestimated to a larger extent primary fiscal balances tend to be lower and public debt ratios are higher and increase faster than projected. Previous research suggests that national authorities’ real-time output gaps suffer from a similar bias. To the extent these estimates play a role in calibrating fiscal policy, over-optimism about long-term growth could contribute to excessive deficits and debt buildup.
Author: Ali Alichi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513523465
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 17
Get Book Here
Book Description
The gap between potential and actual output—the output gap—is a key variable for policymaking. This paper adapts the methodology developed in Blagrave and others (2015) to estimate the path of output gap in the U.S. economy. The results show that the output gap has considerably shrunk since the Great Recession, but still remains negative. While the results are more robust than other existing methodologies, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the estimates.
Author: Joshua Chan
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1108423388
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 491
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Book Description
Illustrates Bayesian theory and application through a series of exercises in question and answer format.
Author: Dirk P. Kroese
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461487757
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 412
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Book Description
This textbook on statistical modeling and statistical inference will assist advanced undergraduate and graduate students. Statistical Modeling and Computation provides a unique introduction to modern Statistics from both classical and Bayesian perspectives. It also offers an integrated treatment of Mathematical Statistics and modern statistical computation, emphasizing statistical modeling, computational techniques, and applications. Each of the three parts will cover topics essential to university courses. Part I covers the fundamentals of probability theory. In Part II, the authors introduce a wide variety of classical models that include, among others, linear regression and ANOVA models. In Part III, the authors address the statistical analysis and computation of various advanced models, such as generalized linear, state-space and Gaussian models. Particular attention is paid to fast Monte Carlo techniques for Bayesian inference on these models. Throughout the book the authors include a large number of illustrative examples and solved problems. The book also features a section with solutions, an appendix that serves as a MATLAB primer, and a mathematical supplement.
Author: Milan Bednář
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 303129761X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 158
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Book Description
This book examines public debt hoarding within the Euro Area, which is one of the most complicated challenges regarding modern fiscal policy-making. The author offers an up-to-date analysis of the fiscal situations of Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Greece. The book describes key mechanisms of debt transmission, discusses the potential establishment of fiscal and debt union in the EU, identifies numerous implications, and connects the fiscal positions of the examined countries with the structural flaws of the Euro Area and the monetary policy of the European Central Bank. Moreover, the work presents an estimation of structural budget balances, including a comparison with the estimates of major international institutions such as the IMF, OECD, and European Commission. A separate chapter is devoted to analysing the fiscal policy determinants, using time series since the late 19th century, and the issue of fiscal policy efficiency. Finally, the work provides an overview of debt resolution options. Overall, this book offers eight core chapters intended for the public, professional economists, and policymakers.
Author: Edward P. Herbst
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 0691161089
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 295
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Book Description
Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models have become one of the workhorses of modern macroeconomics and are extensively used for academic research as well as forecasting and policy analysis at central banks. This book introduces readers to state-of-the-art computational techniques used in the Bayesian analysis of DSGE models. The book covers Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques for linearized DSGE models, novel sequential Monte Carlo methods that can be used for parameter inference, and the estimation of nonlinear DSGE models based on particle filter approximations of the likelihood function. The theoretical foundations of the algorithms are discussed in depth, and detailed empirical applications and numerical illustrations are provided. The book also gives invaluable advice on how to tailor these algorithms to specific applications and assess the accuracy and reliability of the computations. Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models is essential reading for graduate students, academic researchers, and practitioners at policy institutions.
Author: Ms.Valerie Cerra
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513536990
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 50
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Book Description
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Author: Mr.Pau Rabanal
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451875657
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 68
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Book Description
Our answer: Not so well. We reached that conclusion after reviewing recent research on the role of technology as a source of economic fluctuations. The bulk of the evidence suggests a limited role for aggregate technology shocks, pointing instead to demand factors as the main force behind the strong positive comovement between output and labor input measures.
Author: Ben S. Bernanke
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226044734
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 469
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Book Description
Over the past fifteen years, a significant number of industrialized and middle-income countries have adopted inflation targeting as a framework for monetary policymaking. As the name suggests, in such inflation-targeting regimes, the central bank is responsible for achieving a publicly announced target for the inflation rate. While the objective of controlling inflation enjoys wide support among both academic experts and policymakers, and while the countries that have followed this model have generally experienced good macroeconomic outcomes, many important questions about inflation targeting remain. In Inflation Targeting, a distinguished group of contributors explores the many underexamined dimensions of inflation targeting—its potential, its successes, and its limitations—from both a theoretical and an empirical standpoint, and for both developed and emerging economies. The volume opens with a discussion of the optimal formulation of inflation-targeting policy and continues with a debate about the desirability of such a model for the United States. The concluding chapters discuss the special problems of inflation targeting in emerging markets, including the Czech Republic, Poland, and Hungary.
Author: Subal C. Kumbhakar
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1316194493
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 375
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Book Description
A Practitioner's Guide to Stochastic Frontier Analysis Using Stata provides practitioners in academia and industry with a step-by-step guide on how to conduct efficiency analysis using the stochastic frontier approach. The authors explain in detail how to estimate production, cost, and profit efficiency and introduce the basic theory of each model in an accessible way, using empirical examples that demonstrate the interpretation and application of models. This book also provides computer code, allowing users to apply the models in their own work, and incorporates the most recent stochastic frontier models developed in academic literature. Such recent developments include models of heteroscedasticity and exogenous determinants of inefficiency, scaling models, panel models with time-varying inefficiency, growth models, and panel models that separate firm effects and persistent and transient inefficiency. Immensely helpful to applied researchers, this book bridges the chasm between theory and practice, expanding the range of applications in which production frontier analysis may be implemented.
