Managing the Transition Toward Self-sustaining Alternative Fuel Vehicle Markets PDF Download
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Author: Derek Richard Supple
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 97
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Book Description
Designing public policy or industry strategy to bolster the transition to alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) is a formidable challenge as demonstrated by historical failed attempts. The transition to new fuels occurs within a dynamically complex system with many distributed actors, long time delays, several important feedback relationships, and multiple tipping points. A broad-boundary, behavioral, dynamic model with explicit spatial structure was previously developed to represent the most important AFV transition barriers. Using California as an illustrative testing region, the model simulates the spatial diffusion of entrant vehicle/fuel technology pairs individually or in competition with other entrants. In this work, the integrated model is carefully parameterized for various specific alternative vehicle technologies. Structural and parametric sensitivity analyses are used to build understanding of system behavior and to identify policy leverage points or the need for further model calibration.
Author: Derek Richard Supple
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 97
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Book Description
Designing public policy or industry strategy to bolster the transition to alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) is a formidable challenge as demonstrated by historical failed attempts. The transition to new fuels occurs within a dynamically complex system with many distributed actors, long time delays, several important feedback relationships, and multiple tipping points. A broad-boundary, behavioral, dynamic model with explicit spatial structure was previously developed to represent the most important AFV transition barriers. Using California as an illustrative testing region, the model simulates the spatial diffusion of entrant vehicle/fuel technology pairs individually or in competition with other entrants. In this work, the integrated model is carefully parameterized for various specific alternative vehicle technologies. Structural and parametric sensitivity analyses are used to build understanding of system behavior and to identify policy leverage points or the need for further model calibration.
Author: Jeroen J. R. Struben
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 302
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Book Description
Technology transitions require the formation of a self-sustaining market through alignment of consumers' interests, producers' capabilities, infrastructure development, and regulations. In this research I develop a broad behavioral dynamic model of the prospective transition to alternative fuel vehicles. In Essay one I focus on the premise that automobile purchase decisions are strongly shaped by cultural norms, personal experience, and social interactions. To capture these factors, I examine important social processes conditioning alternative vehicle diffusion, including the generation of consumer awareness through feedback from driving experience, word of mouth and marketing. Through analysis of a simulation model I demonstrate the existence of a critical threshold for the sustained adoption of alternative technologies, and show how the threshold depends on behavioral, economic and physical system parameters. Word-of-mouth from those not driving an alternative vehicle is important in stimulating diffusion. Further, I show that marketing and subsidies for alternatives must remain in place for long periods for diffusion to become self-sustaining.
Author: Jeroen Struben
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 48
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Book Description
Automakers are now developing alternatives to internal combustion engines (ICE), including hydrogen fuel cells and ICE-electric hybrids. Adoption dynamics for alternative vehicles are complex due to the size and importance of the auto industry and vehicle installed base. Diffusion of alternative vehicles is both enabled and constrained by powerful positive feedbacks arising from scale and scope economies, Ramp;D, learning by doing, driver experience, word of mouth, and complementary resources such as fueling infrastructure. We describe a dynamic model of the diffusion of and competition among alternative fuel vehicles, including coevolution of the fleet, technology, consumer behavior, and complementary resources. Here we focus on the generation of consumer awareness of alternatives through feedback from consumers' experience, word of mouth and marketing, with a reduced form treatment of network effects and other positive feedbacks (which we treat in other papers). We demonstrate the existence of a critical threshold for sustained adoption of alternative technologies, and show how the threshold depends on economic and behavioral parameters. We show that word of mouth from those not driving an alternative vehicle is important in stimulating diffusion. Expanding the model boundary to include learning, technological spillovers and spatial coevolution of fueling infrastructure adds additional feedbacks that condition the diffusion of alternative vehicles. Results show scenarios for successful diffusion of alternative vehicles, but also suggest that marketing programs and subsidies for alternatives must remain in place for long periods for diffusion to become self-sustaining.
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309268524
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 395
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Book Description
For a century, almost all light-duty vehicles (LDVs) have been powered by internal combustion engines operating on petroleum fuels. Energy security concerns about petroleum imports and the effect of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on global climate are driving interest in alternatives. Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels assesses the potential for reducing petroleum consumption and GHG emissions by 80 percent across the U.S. LDV fleet by 2050, relative to 2005. This report examines the current capability and estimated future performance and costs for each vehicle type and non-petroleum-based fuel technology as options that could significantly contribute to these goals. By analyzing scenarios that combine various fuel and vehicle pathways, the report also identifies barriers to implementation of these technologies and suggests policies to achieve the desired reductions. Several scenarios are promising, but strong, and effective policies such as research and development, subsidies, energy taxes, or regulations will be necessary to overcome barriers, such as cost and consumer choice.
Author: Jeroen Struben
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
This paper develops a dynamic, behavioral model with an explicit spatial structure to explore the co-evolutionary dynamics between infrastructure supply and vehicle demand. Vehicles and fueling infrastructure are complementarities and their chicken-egg dynamics are fundamental to the emergence of a self-sustaining alternative fuel vehicle market, but they are not well understood. The paper explores in-depth the dynamics resulting from local demand-supply interactions with strategically locating fuel-station entrants. The dynamics of vehicle and fuel infrastructure are examined under heterogeneous socio-economic/demographic conditions. The research reveals the formation of urban adoption clusters as an important mechanism for early market formation. However, while locally speeding diffusion, these same micro-mechanisms can obstruct the emergence of a large, self-sustaining market. Other feedbacks that significantly influence dynamics, such as endogenous topping-off behavior, are discussed. This model can be applied to develop targeted entrance strategies for alternative fuels in transportation. The roles of other powerful positive feedbacks arising from scale and scope economies, R&D, learning by doing, driver experience, and word of mouth are discussed.
Author: Bob Aldrich
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
ISBN: 0788145932
Category : Alternative fuel vehicles
Languages : en
Pages : 119
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Book Description
An overview of alternative fuel vehicles. Includes chapters on: regulations and requirements in the U.S. and California; electric vehicles; ethanol-powered/flexible fuel vehicles; methanol-powered/flexible fuel vehicles; natural gas -powered vehicles; propane/LPG-powered vehicles; heavy-duty vehicles and engines; other alternative and clean fuels; locations of alternative fuel facilities; and the future of alternative fuel research. Glossary and bibliography. Tables, contact lists and maps.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Architecture
Languages : en
Pages : 590
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Book Description
Author: National Research Council (U.S.). Transportation Research Board
Publisher: Transportation Research Board
ISBN: 0309085713
Category : Alternative fuel vehicles
Languages : en
Pages : 294
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Book Description
Author: Diego A. Vazquez-Brust
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 940074417X
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 365
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Book Description
This volume is a practical guide that helps the reader build a quick, evidence-based understanding of green-growth strategies and challenges. Its cogent analysis of real-life case studies enables policy makers and company executives identify successful strategies they can adopt, and pitfalls they can avoid, in drafting and implementing green growth policies. The contributors’ empirical assessment of these studies identifies the structural conditions required for economic growth to be compatible with environmental sustainability and how the transition to a new economic paradigm should be managed. A crucial addition to the debate now beginning in earnest around the world, this volume attempts to understand how we can nurture a new-born model of sustainable growth and help it evolve to maturity.
Author: C.E (Sandy) Thomas
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319168320
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 187
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Book Description
This book includes an in-depth analysis of the environmental and energy security impacts of replacing the internal combustion engine vehicle with various forms of electric vehicles and replacing gasoline and diesel fuel with alternative fuels including electricity, hydrogen and biofuels. In addition to a detailed “well-to-wheels” analysis of local air pollution, greenhouse gas emissions and oil consumption for each alternative vehicle, the book estimates the market penetration potential of each fuel/vehicle combination to determine the most likely societal impact of each alternative vehicle pathway. To support the market penetration estimates, the book analyses the likely cost of each alternative vehicle in mass production and the cost of installing the necessary fuel infrastructure to support each option. The book provides sufficient detail to allow decision makers in governments and industry to choose among the alternative vehicle/fuel combinations that will lead to a truly sustainable transportation system.
