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Author: Mr.Alessandro Cantelmo
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513515381
Category : Nature
Languages : en
Pages : 52
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Book Description
Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, we study the channels through which natural disaster shocks affect macroeconomic outcomes and welfare in disaster-prone countries. We solve the model using Taylor projection, a solution method that is shown to deal effectively with high-impact weather shocks calibrated in accordance to empirical evidence. We find large and persistent effects of weather shocks that significantly impact the income convergence path of disaster-prone countries. Relative to non-disaster-prone countries, on average, these shocks cause a welfare loss equivalent to a permanent fall in consumption of 1.6 percent. Welfare gains to countries that self-finance investments in resilient public infrastructure are found to be negligible, and international aid has to be sizable to achieve significant welfare gains. In addition, it is more cost-effective for donors to contribute to the financing of resilience before the realization of disasters, rather than disbursing aid after their realization.
Author: Mr.Alessandro Cantelmo
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513515381
Category : Nature
Languages : en
Pages : 52
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Book Description
Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, we study the channels through which natural disaster shocks affect macroeconomic outcomes and welfare in disaster-prone countries. We solve the model using Taylor projection, a solution method that is shown to deal effectively with high-impact weather shocks calibrated in accordance to empirical evidence. We find large and persistent effects of weather shocks that significantly impact the income convergence path of disaster-prone countries. Relative to non-disaster-prone countries, on average, these shocks cause a welfare loss equivalent to a permanent fall in consumption of 1.6 percent. Welfare gains to countries that self-finance investments in resilient public infrastructure are found to be negligible, and international aid has to be sizable to achieve significant welfare gains. In addition, it is more cost-effective for donors to contribute to the financing of resilience before the realization of disasters, rather than disbursing aid after their realization.
Author: Mr. Alessandro Cantelmo
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 65
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Book Description
This paper analyzes monetary policy regimes in emerging and developing economies where climate-related natural disasters are major macroeconomic shocks. A narrative analysis of IMF reports published around the occurrence of natural disasters documents their impact on important macroeconomic variables and monetary policy responses. While countries with at least some degree of monetary policy independence typically react by tightening the monetary policy stance, in a sizable number of cases monetary policy was accommodated. Given the lack of consensus on best practices in these circumstances, a small open-economy New-Keynesian model with disaster shocks is leveraged to evaluate welfare under alternative monetary policy rules. Results suggest that responding to inflation to an extent sufficient to keep inflation expectations anchored, while allowing temporary deviations from its target is the welfare maximizing policy. Alternative regimes such as strict inflation targeting, exchange rate pegs, or Taylor rules explicitly responding to economic activity or the exchange rate would be welfare-detrimental.
Author: Stefan Hochrainer
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3835094416
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 213
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Book Description
Stefan Hochrainer develops a catastrophe risk management model. It illustrates which trade-offs and choices a country must make in managing economic risks due to natural disasters. Budgetary resources are allocated to pre-disaster risk management strategies to reduce the probability of financing gaps. The framework and model approach allows cross country comparisons as well as the assessment of financial vulnerability, macroeconomic risk, and risk management strategies. Three case studies demonstrate its flexibility and coherent approach.
Author: Debarati Guha-Sapir
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0199841934
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 341
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Book Description
This work combines research and empirical evidence on the economic costs of disasters with theoretical approaches. It provides new insights on how to assess and manage the costs and impacts of disaster prevention, mitigation, recovery and adaption, and much more.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498345093
Category : Nature
Languages : en
Pages : 99
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Book Description
Small developing states are disproportionately vulnerable to natural disasters. On average, the annual cost of disasters for small states is nearly 2 percent of GDP—more than four times that for larger countries. This reflects a higher frequency of disasters, adjusted for land area, as well as greater vulnerability to severe disasters. About 9 percent of disasters in small states involve damage of more than 30 percent of GDP, compared to less than 1 percent for larger states. Greater exposure to disasters has important macroeconomic effects on small states, resulting in lower investment, lower GDP per capita, higher poverty, and a more volatile revenue base.
Author: Taha Chaiechi
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 0128174668
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 665
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Book Description
Economic Effects of Natural Disasters explores how natural disasters affect sources of economic growth and development. Using theoretical econometrics and real-world data, and drawing on advances in climate change economics, the book shows scholars and researchers how to use various research methods and techniques to investigate and respond to natural disasters. No other book presents empirical frameworks for the evaluation of the quality of macroeconomic research practice with a focus on climate change and natural disasters. Because many of these subjects are so large, different regions of the world use different approaches, hence this resource presents tailored economic applications and evidence. - Connects economic theories and empirical work in climate change to natural disaster research - Shows how advances in climate change and natural disaster research can be implemented in micro- and macroeconomic simulation models - Addresses structural changes in countries afflicted by climate change and natural disasters
Author: Weicheng Lian
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 30
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Book Description
This paper uses a novel empirical approach, following the literature on hysteresis, to explore medium-term scarring of natural disasters for countries vulnerable to climate change. By quantifying the dynamic effects of natural disasters on real GDP per capita for a large number of episodes using a synthetic control approach (SCA) and focusing on severe shocks, we demonstrate that a persistently large deviation of real GDP per capita from the counterfacutal trend exists five years after a severe shock in many countries. The findings highlight the importance and urgency of building ex-ante resilience to avoid scarring effects for countries prone to natural disasters, such as those in the Caribbean region.
Author: Debarati Guha-Sapir
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0199339805
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 417
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Book Description
Since the turn of the millennium, more than one million people have been killed and 2.3 billion others have been directly affected by natural disasters around the world. In cases like the 2010 Haiti earthquake or the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, these disasters have time and time again wrecked large populations and national infrastructures. While recognizing that improved rescue, evacuation, and disease control are crucial to reducing the effects of natural disasters, in the final analysis, poverty remains the main risk factor determining the long-term impact of natural hazards. Furthermore, natural disasters have themselves a tremendous impact on the poorest of the poor, who are often ill-prepared to deal with natural hazards and for whom a hurricane, an earthquake, or a drought can mean a permanent submersion in poverty. The Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters focuses on these concerns for poverty and vulnerability. Written by a collection of esteemed scholars in disaster management and sustainable development, the report provides an overview of the general trends in natural disasters and their effects by focusing on a critical analysis of different methodologies used to assess the economic impact of natural disasters. Economic Impacts presents six national case studies (Bangladesh, Vietnam, India, Nicaragua, Japan and the Netherlands) and shows how household surveys and country-level macroeconomic data can analyze and quantify the economic impact of disasters. The researchers within Economic Impacts have created path-breaking work and have opened new avenues for thinking and debate to push forward the frontiers of knowledge on economics of natural disasters.
Author: Charlotte Benson
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 9780821356852
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 136
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Book Description
Author: Stéphane Hallegatte
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319089331
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 214
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Book Description
This book explores economic concepts related to disaster losses, describes mechanisms that determine the economic consequences of a disaster, and reviews methodologies for making decisions regarding risk management and adaptation. The author addresses the need for better understanding of the consequences of disasters and reviews and analyzes three scientific debates on linkage between disaster risk management and adaptation to climate change. The first involves the existence and magnitude of long-term economic impact of natural disasters on development. The second is the disagreement over whether any development is the proper solution to high vulnerability to disaster risk. The third debate involves the difficulty of drawing connections between natural disasters and climate change and the challenge in managing them through an integrated strategy. The introduction describes economic views of disaster, including direct and indirect costs, output and welfare losses, and use of econometric tools to measure losses. The next section defines disaster risk, delineates between “good” and “bad” risk-taking, and discusses a pathway to balanced growth. A section entitled “Trends in Hazards and the Role of Climate Change” sets scenarios for climate change analysis, discusses statistical and physical models for downscaling global climate scenarios to extreme event scenarios, and considers how to consider extremes of hot and cold, storms, wind, drought and flood. Another section analyzes case studies on hurricanes and the US coastline; sea-level rises and storm surge in Copenhagen; and heavy precipitation in Mumbai. A section on Methodologies for disaster risk management includes a study on cost-benefit analysis of coastal protections in New Orleans, and one on early-warning systems in developing countries. The next section outlines decision-making in disaster risk management, including robust decision-making, No-regret and No-risk strategies; and strategies that reduce time horizons for decision-making. Among the conclusions is the assertion that risk management policies must recognize the benefits of risk-taking and avoid suppressing it entirely. The main message is that a combination of disaster-risk-reduction, resilience-building and adaptation policies can yield large potential gains and synergies.
