Macroeconomic Effects of Japan’s Demographics: Can Structural Reforms Reverse Them? PDF Download
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Author: Mariana Colacelli
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484387112
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Book Description
Yes, partly. This paper studies the potential role of structural reforms in improving Japan’s outlook using the IMF’s Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF) with newly-added demographic features. Implementation of a not-fully-believed path of structural reforms can significantly offset the adverse effect of Japan’s demographic headwinds — a declining and ageing population — on real GDP (by about 15 percent in the next 40 years), but would not boost inflation or contribute substantially to stabilizing public debt. Alternatively, implementation of a fully-credible structural reform program can contribute significantly to stabilizing public debt because of the resulting increase in inflation towards the Bank of Japan’s target, while achieving the same positive long-run effects on real GDP. If no reforms are implemented, severe demographic headwinds are expected to reduce Japan’s real GDP by over 25 percent in the next 40 years.
Author: Mariana Colacelli
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484387112
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Book Description
Yes, partly. This paper studies the potential role of structural reforms in improving Japan’s outlook using the IMF’s Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF) with newly-added demographic features. Implementation of a not-fully-believed path of structural reforms can significantly offset the adverse effect of Japan’s demographic headwinds — a declining and ageing population — on real GDP (by about 15 percent in the next 40 years), but would not boost inflation or contribute substantially to stabilizing public debt. Alternatively, implementation of a fully-credible structural reform program can contribute significantly to stabilizing public debt because of the resulting increase in inflation towards the Bank of Japan’s target, while achieving the same positive long-run effects on real GDP. If no reforms are implemented, severe demographic headwinds are expected to reduce Japan’s real GDP by over 25 percent in the next 40 years.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513529390
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 119
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Book Description
This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Japan highlights that the rapid aging and shrinking of Japan’s population has become central to macroeconomic policies and outcomes. The consultation centered on the macroeconomic effects of Japan’s demographics. Mutually reinforcing policies are needed to lift current and expected inflation, stabilize public debt, and raise potential growth. Underlying growth is expected to remain resilient but will be increasingly challenged by slowing external demand and intensifying demographic headwinds. Growth in domestic demand is being eroded by the weaker external environment. Frontloading of private consumption ahead of the October 2019 consumption tax rate increase appears to have been smaller than in 2014.
Author: Charles Dunst
Publisher: Hodder & Stoughton
ISBN: 1399704451
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 541
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Book Description
' Charles Dunst's deeply researched, timely and powerful book offers a blueprint for how democracies should fight back.' - Sir Kim Darroch 'Remarkable. A thoughtful and perceptive book.' - Rt. Hon. Jeremy Hunt, MP The world is currently experiencing the lowest levels of democracy we have seen in over thirty years. Autocracy is on the rise, and while the cost of autocracy seems evident, it nevertheless remains an attractive option to many. While leaders like Viktor Orbán disrupt democratic foundations from within, autocrats like Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin do so from abroad, eroding democratic institutions and values and imperilling democracies that appear increasingly fragile. There are even those who, disillusioned with the current institutions in place, increasingly think authoritarianism can deliver them a better life than democracy has or could. They're wrong. Autocracy is not the solution - better democracy is. But we have to make the case for it. We have to combat institutional rot by learning from one another, and, at times, from our rivals. And we have to get our own houses in order. Only then can we effectively stand up for democratic values around the world and defeat the dictators.
Author: Ellen R. McGrattan
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484387147
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Book Description
Japan faces the problem of how to finance retirement, health, and long-term care expenditures as the population ages. This paper analyzes the impact of policy options intended to address this problem by employing a dynamic general equilibrium overlapping generations model, specifically parameterized to match both the macroeconomic and microeconomic level data of Japan. We find that financing the costs of aging through gradual increases in the consumption tax rate delivers a better macroeconomic performance and higher welfare for most individuals than other financing options, including those of raising social security contributions, debt financing, and a uniform increase in health and long-term care copayments.
Author: Mr.Fei Han
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498301142
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 31
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Book Description
Japan’s aging and shrinking population could lower the natural rate of interest and, together with low inflation expectations, challenge the Bank of Japan’s efforts to reflate the economy. This paper uses a semi-structural model to estimate the impact of demographics on the natural rate in Japan. We find that demographic change has a significantly negative impact on the natural rate by lowering trend potential growth. We also find that the negative impact has been increasing over time amid stronger demographic headwinds. These findings highlight the importance of boosting potential growth to offset the negative demographic impact and lift the natural rate in Japan.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513528831
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 68
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Book Description
This issue of Finance & Development discusses link between demographics and economic well-being. In the coming decades, demographics is expected to be more favorable to economic well-being in the less developed regions than in the more developed regions. The age structure of a population reflects mainly its fertility and mortality history. In high-mortality populations, improved survival tends to occur disproportionately among children. The “demographic dividend” refers to the process through which a changing age structure can spur economic growth. It depends, of course, on several complex factors, including the nature and pace of demographic change, the operation of labor and capital markets, macroeconomic management and trade policies, governance, and human capital accumulation. Population aging is the dominant demographic trend of the twenty-first century—a reflection of increasing longevity, declining fertility, and the progression of large cohorts to older ages. Barring a change in current trends, the industrial world’s working-age population will decline over the next generation, and China’s working-age population will decline as well. At the same time, trends toward increased labor force participation of women have played out with, for example, more women than men now working in the United States.
Author: Mariana Colacelli
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498317472
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 21
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Book Description
Productivity growth in Japan, as in most advanced economies, has moderated. This paper finds supportive evidence for the important role of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in explaining Japan’s modest productivity growth. Results show a substantial dispersion in firm-level productivity growth across sectors and even across firms within the same sector. SMEs, on average, exhibit lower productivity growth than non-SMEs in Japan, with smaller and older SMEs showing particularly low productivity growth. Estimates suggest that boosting productivity growth in all of the worst-performing SMEs could improve overall productivity growth by up to 1.8 percentage points. The SME credit guarantee system, SME financing constraints, demographic factors, and lack of intangible capital investment are discussed as contributors to the slow productivity growth of Japan’s small and old SMEs.
Author: Helaine Selin
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3031153596
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 471
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Book Description
This second edition of Helaine Selin’s successful Parenting Across Cultures comes at a time where interest in parenting has increased across the world as a result of the COVID pandemic, as parents and children were put into different and often challenging conditions. This new edition, like the first, contains chapters from countries in Asia, Africa, and South America as well as from indigenous cultures of several Western countries. The chapters were revised to include new research in the post-pandemic world. They show that there is a strong connection between culture and parenting: there are differences in affection and distance, harshness and repression, and acceptance and criticism. Some parents insist on obedience; others are concerned with individual development. This clearly differs from parent to parent, but there is just as clearly a connection to culture, which these chapters explore. In addition to the chapters on individual countries, the second edition includes a section on the pandemic, as well as new research on parenting and technology, gender, religion, adoption, step parenting, divorce, single parents, racism, gay parents, disabilities, autism, eating habits, transgender, attachment, migration, bullying, and refugee resettlement.
Author: Terry Wu
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030876217
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 350
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Book Description
The Asia-Pacific region, sustaining more than four decades of rapid growth, has emerged as an economic force comparable in significance to Europe and North America. This book examines the economic, geopolitical, technological, demographic, and cultural forces that shape the international business strategies in the Asia-Pacific region. Specifically, it examines the seismic shifts in global business environment since the new century, and addresses emerging opportunities and threats in the Asia-Pacific region. This book offers new insights for international business in areas such as trade policy, supply chains, international investment, technological innovation, international marketing, digital economy, and human resources. The enclosed comprehensive and diverse analyses of the international business landscape in the New Asia are invaluable to scholars, managers, politicians, and policy makers alike. This book is engaging and informative. It presents a collection of diverse and cutting-edge topics that offer new insights into International Business activities in the Asia-Pacific region, raising questions for debate and opening pathways for future research. A must-read book for International Business scholars.— Hussain G. Rammal, University of Technology Sydney, Australia This book offers a comprehensive introduction to the general business environment in Asia. It highlights the complexities and dynamics of doing business in Asia and provides insightful understandings of emerging issues in the region. The chapter-by-chapter analyses of the region depict the rich thematic contexts in which key issues and challenges facing corporate executives as well scholars in international business. I believe that this book is valuable for students of international business, global business environment and regional studies. —Hongxin Zhao, Saint Louis University, USA
Author: Ms.Chie Aoyagi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513515349
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 38
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Book Description
The quantification of how aspects of a job are valued by employees sheds light on the potential for labor market reform in Japan. Using a nationwide sample of 1,046 working-age adults, we conduct a choice experiment that examines individuals’ willingness to trade wages against job characteristics such as the extent of overtime, job security, the possibility of work transfer and relocation. Our results suggest that: i) workers have high WTP (willingness to pay) to avoid extreme overtime and work transfer, ii) women have higher WTP than men, and iii) higher WTP for women are driven in part by feelings of guilt.
