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Author: United States. Air Force Dept
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Aeronautics, Military
Languages : en
Pages : 224
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Book Description
Author: United States. Air Force Dept
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Aeronautics, Military
Languages : en
Pages : 224
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Aeronautics, Military
Languages : en
Pages : 168
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Book Description
Author: United States. Air Force Department
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Forecasting, Military
Languages : en
Pages : 218
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Book Description
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 332
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Book Description
Author: United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 70
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Book Description
Author: David F. Ross
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1468400150
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 792
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Book Description
It has been said that every generation of historians seeks to rewrite what a previous generation had established as the standard interpretations of the motives and circumstances shaping the fabric of historical events. It is not that the facts of history have changed. No one will dispute that the battle of Waterloo occurred on June 11, 1815 or that the allied invasion of Europe began on June 6, 1944. What each new age of historians are attempting to do is to reinterpret the motives of men and the force of circumstance impacting the direction of past events based on the factual, social, intellectual, and cultural milieu of their own generation. By examining the facts of history from a new perspective, today's historians hope to reveal some new truth that will not only illuminate the course of history but also validate contempo rary values and societal ideals. Although it is true that tackling the task of developing a new text on logistics and distribution channel management focuses less on schools of philosophical and social analysis and more on the calculus of managing sales campaigns, inventory replenishment, and income statements, the goal of the management scientist, like the historian, is to merge the facts and figures of the discipline with today's organizational, cultural, and economic realities. Hopefully, the result will be a new synthesis, where a whole new perspective will break forth, exposing new directions and opportunities.
Author: Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher: Crown
ISBN: 080413670X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 331
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Book Description
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Author: Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400888816
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 368
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Book Description
Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
Author: Jerome Namias
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Weather forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 96
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Book Description
Author: William Winston
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1317939069
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 483
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Book Description
Marketing Planning in a Total Quality Environment is a how-to book designed for the marketing practitioner. It provides detailed information on how to prepare and implement a marketing plan based in a total quality environment.For the last twenty years, the authors, as marketing practitioners and educators, have been deeply involved in the planning processes of many corporations. This book, Marketing Planning in a Total Quality Environment, is the product of what they've learned over the years from working with these diverse corporations and their executives. The authors provide readers with each step in the total quality planning process, complete with check sheets and plan formats. After readers finish the book, they can prepare a quality-driven marketing plan that will be used and followed throughout the year--instead of becoming a shelf item.This book is for you and the many other marketing professionals who are faced with one or more of these situations: You're doing a good job, but you'd like to do even better. You're spending valuable time putting out fires. You lack time to do the things that need to be done. You're always having a hard time coordinating major marketing programs. You're faced with a major discrepancy between where you are and where you'd like to be; you've got a planning gap. You realize that you've got to offer your customers more quality if you're going to be competitive in the new market environment. You'd like to have a professional annual marketing plan--one that will be well received by management and will also keep you and your staff focused throughout the year. Because each step on how to develop a marketing plan is covered, Marketing Planning in a Total Quality Environment is ideal for presidents of smaller firms, marketing directors and planners, product managers, and planning specialists. The authors include a sample fact book which can be used to store and analyze data, planning forms which help convert data into information, and marketing plan formats which ensure that the plan will get used.
