Author: Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher: Crown
ISBN: 080413670X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 331
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Book Description
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498337325
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 43
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Book Description
The broader governance reform debate—which goes beyond quotas to issues such as engagement by high-level policymakers, Fund management selection, Board structure, rules and accountability—has not got very far in garnering a consensus at the Executive Board. This is the case even though, in political circles, including the IMFC, and in civil society, expectations are high that the institution will tackle reforms key to its long-term effectiveness and legitimacy. The impasse reflects many factors. Partly it is a matter of not being convinced that governance is nearly as important as quota shares, partly of disagreement over the specifics of various proposals, and partly of concern that the conflation of quotas with governance—the “package approach”—risks delaying the pivotal quota rebalancing exercise, scheduled to be completed before January 2011. This paper lays out the main governance issues, while putting forward variants of reform proposals that might command broader support. It takes as given that, even if quota reform has its own logic and deadline, this does not preclude parallel consideration of—and possibly decisions on—governance reforms, which can help make the case to domestic and international audiences that a broader reform of the Fund is underway.
Author: Office for Budget Responsibility
Publisher: The Stationery Office
ISBN: 9780101821827
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 200
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Book Description
This economic and fiscal outlook sets out the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast for the period to 2016-17. The economy has grown less strongly than forecast in March primarily because higher-than-expected inflation has squeezed household incomes and consumer spending. The eurozone crisis has impacted on business and consumer confidence. Consequently the OBR has revised it growth forecasts downwards. It expects the underlying momentum of the economy to pick up through 2012 but with the headline measure of GDP broadly flat until the second half. The central forecast is now for 0.7 per cent growth in GDP in 20102, 2.1 per cent in 2013, 2.7 per cent in 2014, and 3 per cent in 2015 and 2016. Public sector net borrowing (PSNB) is expected to total £127 this year (8.4 per cent of GDP), but the downward revision of growth forecasts means the deficit will shrink less quickly over the next five years, with a forecast £53 billion PSNB (2.9 per cent of GDP) in 2015-16. Unemployment is expected to rise further to 8.7 per cent in 2012 before falling back to 6.2 per cent by 2016. The OBR estimates that the Government has a roughly 60 per cent of meeting its mandate to balance the structural or cyclically-adjusted current budget by 2016-17. The central economic and fiscal forecasts assume that the euro area finds a way through its current crisis, but a more disorderly outcome is clearly a significant risk.
Author: Office for Budget Responsibility
Publisher: The Stationery Office
ISBN: 9780101797924
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 164
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Book Description
The Office for Budget Responsibility was established to provide independent and authoritative analysis of the UK's public finances. Part of this role includes producing the official economic and fiscal forecasts. This report sets out forecasts for the period to 2015-16. The report also assesses whether the Government is on course to meet the medium-term fiscal objectives and presents preliminary observations on the long-run sustainability of the public finances. Since the June forecast, the UK economy has recovered more strongly than initially expected. The GDP growth was greater than expected in both the 2nd and 3rd quarters, but that unemployment levels have risen to levels that the June forecast did not anticipate until the middle of 2012. In general the world economy has also grown more strongly. CPI inflation has remained slightly higher than expected in June, whilst public finances have performed as forecast. The interest rates on UK debt are lower than in June. The OBR forecasts that the economy will continue to recover from the recession, but at a slower pace than the recoveries of the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. The publication is divided into 5 chapters with two annexes.
Author: Social Science Research Council (Great Britain)
Publisher: London : published for the Social Science Research Council by Heinemann, London
ISBN:
Category : Economic forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 184
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Book Description
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Climatic changes
Languages : en
Pages : 60
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Book Description
Author: Great Britain: Parliament: House of Commons: European Scrutiny Committee
Publisher: The Stationery Office
ISBN: 9780215053176
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 120
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Book Description
Author: Office for Budget Responsibility
Publisher: The Stationery Office
ISBN: 9780101803625
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 180
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Book Description
The Office for Budget Responsibility was established to provide independent and authoritative analysis of the UK's public finances. Part of this role includes producing the official economic and fiscal forecasts. This report sets out forecasts for the period to 2015-16. The report also assesses whether the Government is on course to meet the medium-term fiscal objectives and presents preliminary observations on the long-run sustainability of the public finances. Since the November 2010 outlook, the key economic developments have been an unexpected fall in UK GDP in the final quarter of 2010, a rise in world oil prices, and higher-than-expected UK inflation. The labour market has performed as expected, with unemployment rising. The OBR endorse all but one of the costings for the tax and spending measures set out in Budget 2011 (HC 836, ISBN 9780102971033) as reasonable central estimates, though there are significant uncertainties around a number of them. The central forecast for economic growth in 2011 is revised down from 2.1 to 1.7 per cent. On the fiscal outlook, OBR forecast that public sector net borrowing will decline steadily as share of national income, but more slowly than forecast in November. The Government set itself two medium-term fiscal targets: to balance the cyclically-adjusted current budget by the end of a rolling five-year period; and to see public sector debt falling in 2015-16. Examining performance against these targets, the OBR believe there is a greater than 50 per cent probability of meeting both targets under current policy.
Author: Andrew Denham
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 113536429X
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 331
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Book Description
Investigating think tanks on both sides of the political divide, the author defines these groups in the context of British politics, explores their impact on the climate of opinion, and calculates how effective they have been in influencing government in general and key policy areas in particular. Think tanks have rarely come under the spotlight and the author offers a probing but balanced overview of a political phenomenon.; This book should prove to be valuable reading for students of political science, public administration and contemporary British history.
Author: Office for Budget Responsibility
Publisher: The Stationery Office
ISBN: 9780101830324
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 192
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Book Description
The Office for Budget Responsibility was established to provide independent and authoritative analysis of the UK's public finances. Part of this role includes producing the official economic and fiscal forecasts. This report sets out forecasts for the period to 2016-17. The report also assesses whether the Government is on course to meet the medium-term fiscal objectives. The OBR assessment of the outlook and risks for the UK economy is broadly unchanged since the November 2011 report. A technical recession will be avoided with positive growth in the first quarter of 2012. GDP will grow by 0.8% in 2012, 2% in 2013, 2.7% in 2014 and 3% for 2015-16 period. Public sector net borrowing is forecast to total £126 billion, 8.3% of GDP this year which is £1.1 billion less than the November forecast. For 2016-17, the PSNB is then forecast to decline to £21 billion. The fall in PSNB in 2012-13 is much larger than the OBR's November forecast due to the Government's decision to transfer the Royal Mail's historic pension deficit. The Chancellor's decision to cut 50% additional rate income tax to 45% has an estimated direct cost to the Exchequer of £0.1 billion in 2013-14. Other forecasts by the OBR, include: the ILO unemployment rate to rise from 8.4% to 8.7% over the coming year; household disposable income growth to be weak in 2012-13, but consumption to begin to offer some support to the recovery in the second half of the year; that the situation in the euro area remains a major risk to accurate forecasting. The publication is divided into five chapters: Chapter 1: Executive summary; Chapter 2: Developments since the November 2011 forecast; Chapter 3: economic outlook; Chapter 4: Fiscal outlook; Chapter 5: Performance against the Government's fiscal targest; Annex A - Budget 2012 policy measures.
