Judgmental Forecasting PDF Download
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Author: George Wright
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 312
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Book Description
Concerned with both the academic and practical aspects of judgmental forecasting, this book presents an overview of judgmental forecasting for a multidisciplinary audience. The book includes sections on the psychology of individual judgment and judgment from groups of individuals.
Author: George Wright
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 312
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Book Description
Concerned with both the academic and practical aspects of judgmental forecasting, this book presents an overview of judgmental forecasting for a multidisciplinary audience. The book includes sections on the psychology of individual judgment and judgment from groups of individuals.
Author: Rob J Hyndman
Publisher: OTexts
ISBN: 0987507117
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 380
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Book Description
Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
Author: J.S. Armstrong
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9780792374015
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 880
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Book Description
This handbook summarises knowledge from experts and empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. Includes a comprehensive forecasting dictionary.
Author: Nada Sanders
Publisher: Business Expert Press
ISBN: 1606498711
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 110
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Book Description
This book is for everyone who wants to make better forecasts. It is not about mathematics and statistics. It is about following a well-established forecasting process to create and implement good forecasts. This is true whether you are forecasting global markets, sales of SKUs, competitive strategy, or market disruptions. Today, most forecasts are generated using software. However, no amount of technology and statistics can compensate for a poor forecasting process. Forecasting is not just about generating a number. Forecasters need to understand the problems they are trying to solve. They also need to follow a process that is justifiable to other parties and be implemented in practice. This is what the book is about. Accurate forecasts are essential for predicting demand, identifying new market opportunities, forecasting risks, disruptions, innovation, competition, market growth and trends. Companies can navigate this daunting landscape and improve their forecasts by following some well-established principles. This book is written to provide the fundamentals business leaders need in order to make good forecasts. These fundamentals hold true regardless of what is being forecast and what technology is being used. It provides the basic foundational principles all companies need to achieve competitive forecast accuracy.
Author: Daniel Kahneman
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521284141
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 574
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Book Description
Thirty-five chapters describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments, but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas rather than describing single experimental studies.
Author: Karen Donohue
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119138302
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 688
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Book Description
A comprehensive review of behavioral operations management that puts the focus on new and trending research in the field The Handbook of Behavioral Operations offers a comprehensive resource that fills the gap in the behavioral operations management literature. This vital text highlights best practices in behavioral operations research and identifies the most current research directions and their applications. A volume in the Wiley Series in Operations Research and Management Science, this book contains contributions from an international panel of scholars from a wide variety of backgrounds who are conducting behavioral research. The handbook provides succinct tutorials on common methods used to conduct behavioral research, serves as a resource for current topics in behavioral operations research, and as a guide to the use of new research methods. The authors review the fundamental theories and offer frameworks from a psychological, systems dynamics, and behavioral economic standpoint. They provide a crucial grounding for behavioral operations as well as an entry point for new areas of behavioral research. The handbook also presents a variety of behavioral operations applications that focus on specific areas of study and includes a survey of current and future research needs. This important resource: Contains a summary of the methodological foundations and in-depth treatment of research best practices in behavioral research. Provides a comprehensive review of the research conducted over the past two decades in behavioral operations, including such classic topics as inventory management, supply chain contracting, forecasting, and competitive sourcing. Covers a wide-range of current topics and applications including supply chain risk, responsible and sustainable supply chain, health care operations, culture and trust. Connects existing bodies of behavioral operations literature with related fields, including psychology and economics. Provides a vision for future behavioral research in operations. Written for academicians within the operations management community as well as for behavioral researchers, The Handbook of Behavioral Operations offers a comprehensive resource for the study of how individuals make decisions in an operational context with contributions from experts in the field.
Author: Kenneth B. Kahn
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1317463889
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 177
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Book Description
Concise and jargon free, this is a one-step primer on the tools and techniques of forecasting new product development. Equally useful for students and professionals, the book is generously illustrated, and features numerous current real-world industry cases and examples. Part I covers the basic foundations and processes of new product forecasting, and links forecasting to the broader processes of new product development and sales and operations planning. Part II includes detailed, step-by-step techniques of new product forecasting, from judgmental techniques to regression analysis. Each chapter in this section begins with the most basic techniques, then progresses to more advanced levels. Part III addresses managerial considerations of new product forecasting, including postlaunch issues such as cannibalization and supercession. The final chapter presents an important set of industry best practices and benchmarks.
Author: Nicolas Vandeput
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
ISBN: 163835197X
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 292
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Book Description
Lead your demand planning process to excellence and deliver real value to your supply chain. In Demand Forecasting Best Practices you’ll learn how to: Lead your team to improve quality while reducing workload Properly define the objectives and granularity of your demand planning Use intelligent KPIs to track accuracy and bias Identify areas for process improvement Help planners and stakeholders add value Determine relevant data to collect and how best to collect it Utilize different statistical and machine learning models An expert demand forecaster can help an organization avoid overproduction, reduce waste, and optimize inventory levels for a real competitive advantage. Demand Forecasting Best Practices teaches you how to become that virtuoso demand forecaster. This one-of-a-kind guide reveals forecasting tools, metrics, models, and stakeholder management techniques for delivering more effective supply chains. Everything you learn has been proven and tested in a live business environment. Discover author Nicolas Vandeput’s original five step framework for demand planning excellence and learn how to tailor it to your own company’s needs. Illustrations and real-world examples make each concept easy to understand and easy to follow. You’ll soon be delivering accurate predictions that are driving major business value. About the Technology An expert demand forecaster can help an organization avoid overproduction, reduce waste, and optimize inventory levels for a real competitive advantage. This book teaches you how to become that virtuoso demand forecaster. About the Book Demand Forecasting Best Practices reveals forecasting tools, metrics, models, and stakeholder management techniques for managing your demand planning process efficiently and effectively. Everything you learn has been proven and tested in a live business environment. Discover author Nicolas Vandeput’s original five step framework for demand planning excellence and learn how to tailor it to your own company’s needs. Illustrations and real-world examples make each concept easy to understand and easy to follow. You’ll soon be delivering accurate predictions that are driving major business value. What's Inside Enhance forecasting quality while reducing team workload Utilize intelligent KPIs to track accuracy and bias Identify process areas for improvement Assist stakeholders in sales, marketing, and finance Optimize statistical and machine learning models About the Reader For demand planners, sales and operations managers, supply chain leaders, and data scientists. About the Author Nicolas Vandeput is a supply chain data scientist, the founder of consultancy company SupChains in 2016, and a teacher at CentraleSupélec, France. Table of Contents: Part 1 - Forecasting demand 1 Demand forecasting excellence 2 Introduction to demand forecasting 3 Capturing unconstrained demand (and not sales) 4 Collaboration: data sharing and planning alignment 5 Forecasting hierarchies 6 How long should the forecasting horizon be? 7 Should we reconcile forecasts to align supply chains? Part 2 - Measuring forecasting quality 8 Forecasting metrics 9 Choosing the best forecasting KPI 10 What is a good forecast error? 11 Measuring forecasting accuracy on a product portfolio Part 3 - Data-driven forecasting process 12 Forecast value added 13 What do you review? ABC XYZ segmentations and other methods Part 4 - Forecasting methods 14 Statistical forecasting 15 Machine learning 16 Judgmental forecasting 17 Now it’s your turn!
Author: William N. Dunn
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1351721682
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 708
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Book Description
Public Policy Analysis, the most widely cited book on the subject, provides students with a comprehensive methodology of policy analysis. It starts from the premise that policy analysis is an applied social science discipline designed for solving practical problems facing public and nonprofit organizations. This thoroughly revised sixth edition contains a number of important updates: Each chapter includes an all-new "big ideas" case study in policy analysis to stimulate student interest in timely and important problems. The dedicated chapter on evidence-based policy and the role of field experiments has been thoroughly rewritten and expanded. New sections on important developments in the field have been added, including using scientific evidence in public policymaking, systematic reviews, meta-analyses, and "big data." Data sets to apply analytical techniques are included online as IBM SPSS 23.0 files and are convertible to Excel, Stata, and R statistical software programs to suit a variety of course needs and teaching styles. All-new PowerPoint slides are included to make instructor preparation easier than ever before. Designed to prepare students from a variety of academic backgrounds to conduct policy analysis on their own, without requiring a background in microeconomics, Public Policy Analysis, Sixth Edition helps students develop the practical skills needed to communicate findings through memos, position papers, and other forms of structured analytical writing. The text engages students by challenging them to critically analyze the arguments of policy practitioners as well as political scientists, economists, and political philosophers.
Author: Martin K. Starr
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
ISBN: 1317419243
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 769
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Book Description
This remarkable volume highlights the importance of Production and Operations Management (POM) as a field of study and research contributing to substantial business and social growth. The editors emphasize how POM works with a range of systems—agriculture, disaster management, e-commerce, healthcare, hospitality, military systems, not-for-profit, retail, sports, sustainability, telecommunications, and transport—and how it contributes to the growth of each. Martin K. Starr and Sushil K. Gupta gather an international team of experts to provide researchers and students with a panoramic vision of the field. Divided into eight parts, the book presents the history of POM, and establishes the foundation upon which POM has been built while also revisiting and revitalizing topics that have long been essential. It examines the significance of processes and projects to the fundamental growth of the POM field. Critical emerging themes and new research are examined with open minds and this is followed by opportunities to interface with other business functions. Finally, the next era is discussed in ways that combine practical skill with philosophy in its analysis of POM, including traditional and nontraditional applications, before concluding with the editors’ thoughts on the future of the discipline. Students of POM will find this a comprehensive, definitive resource on the state of the discipline and its future directions.
