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Author: Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400888816
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 368
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Book Description
Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
Author: Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400888816
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 368
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Book Description
Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
Author: Max H. Bazerman
Publisher: Wiley
ISBN: 9780471398875
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Author is a leading theorist in negotiation and decision-making.
Author: Gabrielle Bernstein
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
ISBN: 1501168991
Category : Self-Help
Languages : en
Pages : 240
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Book Description
“Gabrielle is the real thing. I respect her work immensely.” —Dr. Wayne Dyer “A new role model.” —The New York Times “I came to one of Bernstein’s monthly lectures and got my first look at the woman I’d one day unabashedly refer to as ‘my guru.’” —Elle From #1 New York Times bestselling author Gabrielle Bernstein comes a clear, proactive, step-by-step process to release the beliefs that hold you back from living a better life. This six-step practice offers many promises. Petty resentments will disappear, compassion will replace attack, the energy of resistance will transform into freedom and you’ll feel more peace and happiness than you’ve ever known. I can testify to these results because I’ve lived them. I’ve never felt more freedom and joy than I have when writing and practicing these steps. My commitment to healing my own relationship to judgment has changed my life in profound ways. My awareness of my judgment has helped me become a more mindful and conscious person. My willingness to heal these perceptions has set me free. I have been able to let go of resentments and jealousies, I can face pain with curiosity and love, and I forgive others and myself much more easily. Best of all, I have a healthy relationship to judgment so that I can witness when it shows up and I can use these steps to quickly return to love. The Judgment Detox is an interactive six-step process that calls on spiritual principles from the text A Course in Miracles, Kundalini yoga, the Emotional Freedom Technique (aka Tapping), meditation, prayer and metaphysical teachings. I’ve demystified these principles to make them easy to commit to and apply in your daily life. Each lesson builds upon the next to support true healing. When you commit to following the process and become willing to let go, judgment, pain and suffering will begin to dissolve. And the miracles will keep coming. Once you begin to feel better you start to release your resistance to love. The more you practice these steps, the more love enters into your consciousness and into your energetic vibration. When you’re in harmony with love, you receive more of what you want. Your energy attracts its likeness. So when you shift your energy from defensive judgment to free-flowing love your life gets awesome. You’ll attract exactly what you need, your relationships will heal, your health will improve and you’ll feel safer and more secure. One loving thought at a time creates a miracle. Follow these steps to clear all blocks, spread more love and live a miraculous life.
Author: William G. Lycan
Publisher: CUP Archive
ISBN: 9780521335805
Category : Philosophy
Languages : en
Pages : 260
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Book Description
Author: Herbert J. Stern
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
ISBN: 1510758305
Category : True Crime
Languages : en
Pages : 561
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Book Description
"Suspenseful...moving...equal to any fictional thriller." —San Francisco Chronicle In August 1978, the Iron Curtain still hung heavily across Europe. To escape from oppressive East Berlin, an East German couple, Hans Detlef Alexander Tiede and Ingrid Ruske, hijacked a Polish airliner and diverted it to the American sector of West Berlin. Along with the couple, several passengers spontaneously defected to the West, and were welcomed by US officials. But within hours, Communist officials reminded the West of the anti-hijacking agreements in the Warsaw Pact, and thus the fugitives were arrested by the US State Department. Thirty-four years after World War II, the United States built a court in the middle of West Berlin, the former capital of the Third Reich, in the building that once housed the Luftwaffe, to try the hijacking couple. Former NJ district attorney, now a judge, Herbert J. Stern was appointed the "United States Judge for Berlin." What followed was a trial full of maneuvers and strategies that would put Perry Mason to shame, and answered the question: what is allowed to people seeking freedom? Judgment in Berlin, also a major motion picture starring Martin Sheen and Sean Penn, is unsurpassed as a true-life suspense story, with its vivid accounts of daring escapes, close calls, diplomatic intrigue, and dramatic courtroom confrontations. The original edition won the Freedom Foundation Award, and this updated edition includes a new introduction from author and trial judge Herbert J. Stern.
Author: Howard Caygill
Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell
ISBN: 9780631165965
Category : Philosophy
Languages : en
Pages : 428
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Book Description
Author: The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints
Publisher: The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints
ISBN: 1465101276
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 298
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Book Description
A Study Guide and a Teacher’s Manual Gospel Principles was written both as a personal study guide and as a teacher’s manual. As you study it, seeking the Spirit of the Lord, you can grow in your understanding and testimony of God the Father, Jesus Christand His Atonement, and the Restoration of the gospel. You can find answers to life’s questions, gain an assurance of your purpose and self-worth, and face personal and family challenges with faith.
Author: John Bevere
Publisher: Messenger International
ISBN: 1937558053
Category : Religion
Languages : en
Pages : 353
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Book Description
One day you will stand before God and give an account of your life. The most important question you can ask yourself now is, will you be ready? Most Christians know their response to the cross determines where they will spend eternity. But did you know that how you’ll spend eternity is determined by what you do in this life? God wants you to discover your calling—He’s not trying to keep you in the dark. In fact, He longs for you to find the meaning and purpose that comes with knowing why you’ve been placed on this earth. In Driven by Eternity, best-selling author John Bevere uses an eye-opening allegory and extensive Scripture to unveil how our daily choices shape our eternal existence. Life beyond the final breath is much more than a destination. Don’t wait until it’s too late. Discover your God-given destiny and make your life count both today and forever.
Author: Anthony O'Hagan
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470033304
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 338
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Book Description
Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is important in situations, such as modelling the safety of nuclear installations or assessing the risk of terrorist attacks, where expert knowledge is essentially the only source of good information. It also plays a major role in other contexts by augmenting scarce observational data, through the use of Bayesian statistical methods. However, elicitation is not a simple task, and practitioners need to be aware of a wide range of research findings in order to elicit expert judgements accurately and reliably. Uncertain Judgements introduces the area, before guiding the reader through the study of appropriate elicitation methods, illustrated by a variety of multi-disciplinary examples. This is achieved by: Presenting a methodological framework for the elicitation of expert knowledge incorporating findings from both statistical and psychological research. Detailing techniques for the elicitation of a wide range of standard distributions, appropriate to the most common types of quantities. Providing a comprehensive review of the available literature and pointing to the best practice methods and future research needs. Using examples from many disciplines, including statistics, psychology, engineering and health sciences. Including an extensive glossary of statistical and psychological terms. An ideal source and guide for statisticians and psychologists with interests in expert judgement or practical applications of Bayesian analysis, Uncertain Judgements will also benefit decision-makers, risk analysts, engineers and researchers in the medical and social sciences.
Author: Maria Yaseen
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 318
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Book Description
In this book on the signs of Judgment Day, all of the major and minor signs are discussed one after another, in a chronological way. This Book is a detailed review of all important signs of Judgment Day. Book will be narrating Quran and Sunnah. Book will also be narrating other sources. Then book will derive from those sources. Because we need to really think deeply about these things. There are major issues discussed. Like Ya'juj and Ma'juj. What do we say about them? Where are these billions of people? Where are they living? Dajjal is he alive or dead? What supernatural power does he have? Does this mean that Dajjal is some mystical force? Or is he an actual entity? These are various theories around them. And all of them are discussed in this book. In the genre of signs of judgment, you have these phrases that might be difficult to unpack. One of the wisdoms might be that, you only recognize it after it happens. And Allah knows best. The book mentions the minor signs and the major signs of Judgment Day. The minor cover categories of specific incidents and number general trends that will be events towards the end of times. Book mentions societal changes that will occur, including change in culture, the way people live and the way people interact with one another. Now, there are many Hadiths that are predicting signs of the Day of Judgement. There's entire section of hadiths that are not authentic. But book will be mentioning every hadith that is authentic. And to cover all bases, Book will inform on what unauthentic Hadiths say on that specific subject.
