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Author: Barry B. Hughes
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 0128134224
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 344
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Book Description
International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system. Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years. - Helps readers understand the IFs system, not at a detailed equation and technical level, but in terms of the important decisions made that dominate the structure and long-term behavior - Presents information on the universe of long-term global forecasting systems, key decisions made, and the range of similarities and differences in the systems - Covers the relationship between long-term forecasts in a variety of global issues and the forecasting systems and assumptions that underly them (essential information for forecast consumers)
Author: Barry B. Hughes
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 0128134224
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 344
Get Book Here
Book Description
International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system. Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years. - Helps readers understand the IFs system, not at a detailed equation and technical level, but in terms of the important decisions made that dominate the structure and long-term behavior - Presents information on the universe of long-term global forecasting systems, key decisions made, and the range of similarities and differences in the systems - Covers the relationship between long-term forecasts in a variety of global issues and the forecasting systems and assumptions that underly them (essential information for forecast consumers)
Author: Barry B. Hughes
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1317259866
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 257
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Book Description
"People who run cities like to play Simcity to find out how impossible their jobs are. Hughes gives everyone a chance to play a kind of Simplanet, with outcomes far more complex and uncertain. In the process, the book and the computer program provide a coherent path to understanding an anarchic world." --Ronald A. Francisco, University of Kansas "What will be the future of human demographic, economic, environmental, and political-social systems throughout the 21st century? Where do current changes appear to be taking us? What kind of future would we prefer? How much leverage do we have to bring about the future we prefer? Do YOU share these interests of the book? If yes, you should study the book and learn how to cope with the future with the International Futures approach (IFs) developed by the authors. This large-scale integrated global simulation modeling system is a user-friendly, professional tool for long-term policy analysis and an educational tool in universities. I had a pleasure to learn it personally by cooperating with Barry Hughes." --Pentti Malaska, Professor of MS, DrTech, futurist Honorary member of the Club of Rome What will be the long-term impact of AIDS in Africa or concentration of global oil production in the Middle East? Exploring and Shaping International Futures helps readers understand such global trends in demographic, economic, energy, food, environmental, and socio-political systems. It allows businesspeople, government officials, and others to think concretely about global futures in each of these areas. It is the only book on the market that allows readers to use a computer simulation to track global trends and to develop alternative scenarios around those trends. It is one of relatively few books that really brings computer technology into the classroom, boardroom, or policy planning commission. The International Futures (IFs) computer simulation, around which the book is built, is now widely used in policy analysis as well as education. It has been instrumental in projects undertaken by such groups as the European Commission, the U.S. National Intelligence Council, and the United Nations. After three decades of development and refinement, the computer model is now easy to access and use. Readers can access the website with the IFs computer model at www.ifs.du.edu
Author: Barry B. Hughes
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1317259858
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 281
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Book Description
"People who run cities like to play Simcity to find out how impossible their jobs are. Hughes gives everyone a chance to play a kind of Simplanet, with outcomes far more complex and uncertain. In the process, the book and the computer program provide a coherent path to understanding an anarchic world." --Ronald A. Francisco, University of Kansas "What will be the future of human demographic, economic, environmental, and political-social systems throughout the 21st century? Where do current changes appear to be taking us? What kind of future would we prefer? How much leverage do we have to bring about the future we prefer? Do YOU share these interests of the book? If yes, you should study the book and learn how to cope with the future with the International Futures approach (IFs) developed by the authors. This large-scale integrated global simulation modeling system is a user-friendly, professional tool for long-term policy analysis and an educational tool in universities. I had a pleasure to learn it personally by cooperating with Barry Hughes." --Pentti Malaska, Professor of MS, DrTech, futurist Honorary member of the Club of Rome What will be the long-term impact of AIDS in Africa or concentration of global oil production in the Middle East? Exploring and Shaping International Futures helps readers understand such global trends in demographic, economic, energy, food, environmental, and socio-political systems. It allows businesspeople, government officials, and others to think concretely about global futures in each of these areas. It is the only book on the market that allows readers to use a computer simulation to track global trends and to develop alternative scenarios around those trends. It is one of relatively few books that really brings computer technology into the classroom, boardroom, or policy planning commission. The International Futures (IFs) computer simulation, around which the book is built, is now widely used in policy analysis as well as education. It has been instrumental in projects undertaken by such groups as the European Commission, the U.S. National Intelligence Council, and the United Nations. After three decades of development and refinement, the computer model is now easy to access and use. Readers can access the website with the IFs computer model at www.ifs.du.edu
Author: Barry B Hughes
Publisher: Westview Press
ISBN:
Category : Language Arts & Disciplines
Languages : en
Pages : 234
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Book Description
Fully updated and including a new and expanded Windows computer simulation, this unique text/disk combination provides a survey of alternative futures in international relations. By manipulating a wide range of variables in major countries and geographical regions students can generate a limitless number of future scenarios in the areas of demographics, food, energy, the environment, economics, and international politics. This new edition of International Futures coherently defines and develops key concepts in global issues and allows interactive development of alternative views of our global future. Complete with tables, flowcharts, feedback loops, computer notes, and research suggestions, the text and simulation allow students to transcend the usual level of speculation about the future by moving to an empirically grounded, values-based consideration of issues, strategies, and outcomes. The broader environmental context of international politics is a special focus of the new edition, just as it has emerged as one of the most important areas in international relations. IFs, a computer simulation to accompany International Futures, is now available in Windows format. It requires the following to operate: an 80386 processor or higher; an EGA, VGA, 8514, Hercules, or compatible display; at least four megabytes of RAM; a hard disk with at least four megabytes of free space; a 3 1/2-inch floppy drive, high density; a mouse; MS-DOS 3.1 or higher; Windows 3.1 or higher in standard or enhanced (not real) mode.
Author: Clare Lade
Publisher: Goodfellow Publishers Ltd
ISBN: 1915097967
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 234
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Book Description
Examines influential factors such as the demographic, political, economic and technological changes, which will affect the tourism, hospitality and events industries. Fully updated and revised, it explores how these changes impact upon future international tourism development, generating plausible ideas and identifying future trends.
Author: Jan Nederveen Pieterse
Publisher: Zed Books
ISBN: 9781856498029
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 276
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Book Description
This work looks beyond the problems of accelerating globalization to examine how humanity can shape it. The contributors suggest a variety of perspectives, changes, policies and institutional reforms to strive for in our increasingly inter-connected world.
Author: Ann Anagnost
Publisher: Stanford University Press
ISBN: 080478468X
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 328
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Book Description
The East Asian economic miracle of the twentieth century is now a fond memory. What does it mean to be living in post-miracle times? For the youth of China, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea, the opportunities and challenges of the neoliberal age, deeply shaped by global forces in labor markets, powerfully frame their life prospects in ways that are barely recognizable to their parents. Global Futures in East Asia gathers together ethnographic explorations of what its contributors call projects of "life-making." Here we see youth striving to understand themselves, their place in society, and their career opportunities in the nation, region, and world. While some express optimism, it is clear that many others dread their prospects in the competitive global system in which the failure to thrive is isolating, humiliating, and possibly even fatal. Deeply engaged with some of the most significant theoretical debates in the social sciences in recent years, and rich with rare cross-national comparisons, this collection will be of great interest to all scholars and students interested in the formation of subjects and subjectivities under globalization and neoliberalism.
Author: Bill Sharpe
Publisher: Triarchy Press
ISBN: 1911193872
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 142
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Book Description
A practical framework for thinking about the future... and an exploration of 'future consciousness' and how to develop it
Author: Thomas G Weiss
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1000440621
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 384
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Book Description
Global Governance Futures addresses the crucial importance of thinking through the future of global governance arrangements. It considers the prospects for the governance of world order approaching the middle of the twenty-first century by exploring today’s most pressing and enduring health, social, ecological, economic, and political challenges. Each of the expert contributors considers the drivers of continuity and change within systems of governance and how actors, agents, mechanisms, and resources are and could be mobilized. The aim is not merely to understand state, intergovernmental, and non-state actors. It is also to draw attention to those underappreciated aspects of global governance that push understanding beyond strictures of traditional conceptualizations and offer better insights into the future of world order. The book’s three parts enable readers to appreciate better the sum of forces likely to shape world order in the near and not-so-near future: “Planetary” encompasses changes wrought by continuing human domination of the earth; war; current and future geopolitical, civilizational, and regional contestations; and life in and between urban and non-urban environments. “Divides” includes threats to human rights gains; the plight of migrants; those who have and those who do not; persistent racial, gender, religious, and sexualorientation-based discrimination; and those who govern and those who are governed. “Challenges” involves food and health insecurities; ongoing environmental degradation and species loss; the current and future politics of international assistance and data; and the wrong turns taken in the control of illicit drugs and crime. Designed to engage advanced undergraduate and graduate students in international relations, organization, law, and political economy as well as a general audience, this book invites readers to adopt both a backward- and forward-looking view of global governance. It will spark discussion and debate as to how dystopic futures might be avoided and change agents mobilized.
Author: OECD
Publisher: OECD Publishing
ISBN: 9264247823
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 112
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Book Description
This report develops three contrasting scenarios to illustrate alternative futures, based on several global economic models and extensive stakeholder discussions, and outlines policy considerations to help ensure that future needs are met sustainably.
