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Author: Yakov Ben-Haim
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 0080465706
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 384
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Book Description
Everyone makes decisions, but not everyone is a decision analyst. A decision analyst uses quantitative models and computational methods to formulate decision algorithms, assess decision performance, identify and evaluate options, determine trade-offs and risks, evaluate strategies for investigation, and so on. Info-Gap Decision Theory is written for decision analysts. The term "decision analyst" covers an extremely broad range of practitioners. Virtually all engineers involved in design (of buildings, machines, processes, etc.) or analysis (of safety, reliability, feasibility, etc.) are decision analysts, usually without calling themselves by this name. In addition to engineers, decision analysts work in planning offices for public agencies, in project management consultancies, they are engaged in manufacturing process planning and control, in financial planning and economic analysis, in decision support for medical or technological diagnosis, and so on and on. Decision analysts provide quantitative support for the decision-making process in all areas where systematic decisions are made. This second edition entails changes of several sorts. First, info-gap theory has found application in several new areas - especially biological conservation, economic policy formulation, preparedness against terrorism, and medical decision-making. Pertinent new examples have been included. Second, the combination of info-gap analysis with probabilistic decision algorithms has found wide application. Consequently "hybrid" models of uncertainty, which were treated exclusively in a separate chapter in the previous edition, now appear throughout the book as well as in a separate chapter. Finally, info-gap explanations of robust-satisficing behavior, and especially the Ellsberg and Allais "paradoxes", are discussed in a new chapter together with a theorem indicating when robust-satisficing will have greater probability of success than direct optimizing with uncertain models. New theory developed systematically Many examples from diverse disciplines Realistic representation of severe uncertainty Multi-faceted approach to risk Quantitative model-based decision theory
Author: Yakov Ben-Haim
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 0080465706
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 384
Get Book
Book Description
Everyone makes decisions, but not everyone is a decision analyst. A decision analyst uses quantitative models and computational methods to formulate decision algorithms, assess decision performance, identify and evaluate options, determine trade-offs and risks, evaluate strategies for investigation, and so on. Info-Gap Decision Theory is written for decision analysts. The term "decision analyst" covers an extremely broad range of practitioners. Virtually all engineers involved in design (of buildings, machines, processes, etc.) or analysis (of safety, reliability, feasibility, etc.) are decision analysts, usually without calling themselves by this name. In addition to engineers, decision analysts work in planning offices for public agencies, in project management consultancies, they are engaged in manufacturing process planning and control, in financial planning and economic analysis, in decision support for medical or technological diagnosis, and so on and on. Decision analysts provide quantitative support for the decision-making process in all areas where systematic decisions are made. This second edition entails changes of several sorts. First, info-gap theory has found application in several new areas - especially biological conservation, economic policy formulation, preparedness against terrorism, and medical decision-making. Pertinent new examples have been included. Second, the combination of info-gap analysis with probabilistic decision algorithms has found wide application. Consequently "hybrid" models of uncertainty, which were treated exclusively in a separate chapter in the previous edition, now appear throughout the book as well as in a separate chapter. Finally, info-gap explanations of robust-satisficing behavior, and especially the Ellsberg and Allais "paradoxes", are discussed in a new chapter together with a theorem indicating when robust-satisficing will have greater probability of success than direct optimizing with uncertain models. New theory developed systematically Many examples from diverse disciplines Realistic representation of severe uncertainty Multi-faceted approach to risk Quantitative model-based decision theory
Author: Behnam Mohammadi-ivatloo
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3030042960
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 315
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Book Description
This book discusses the recent developments in robust optimization (RO) and information gap design theory (IGDT) methods and their application for the optimal planning and operation of electric energy systems. Chapters cover both theoretical background and applications to address common uncertainty factors such as load variation, power market price, and power generation of renewable energy sources. Case studies with real-world applications are included to help undergraduate and graduate students, researchers and engineers solve robust power and energy optimization problems and provide effective and promising solutions for the robust planning and operation of electric energy systems.
Author: Y. Ben-Haim
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 0230277322
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 245
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Book Description
This book is a product of applying info-gap decision theory to policy formulation and evaluation in monetary economics and related domains. Info-gap theory has been applied to planning and decision problems in many areas, including engineering, biological conservation, project management, economics, medicine, homeland security, and more.
Author: Richard Bradley
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1107003210
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 351
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Book Description
Explores how decision-makers can manage uncertainty that varies in both kind and severity by extending and supplementing Bayesian decision theory.
Author: Robin M. Hogarth
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 9780226348551
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 376
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Book Description
How do people make decisions? How can we help people make better decisions? How can we best study the processes of decision making? The growing field of behavioral decision research, which seeks to link observed decision behavior to underlying psychological mechanisms, may provide the answers to these questions. The volume is based on a recent conference held to honor the work and memory of the late Hillel J. Einhorn, a pioneering scholar in behavioral decision research. Composed of contributions by leading researchers, Insights in Decision Making provides a state-of-the-art image of work in this field. The range of topics covered includes conceptual and technical issues the bridge the gap between theory and the practical concern of improving decision making, difficulties in statistical thinking, experimental studies of processes of judgment and choice, and the emergence of new paradigms for studying decision behavior. Providing many avenues for future research, Insights in Decision Making will be essential reading for students of the psychology of decision making and will prove valuable to readers in psychology, economics, statistics, and management.
Author: Jeffrey Pfeffer
Publisher: Harvard Business Press
ISBN: 9781578511242
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 348
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Book Description
The market for business knowledge is booming as companies looking to improve their performance pour millions of pounds into training programmes, consultants, and executive education. Why then, are there so many gaps between what firms know they should do and waht they actual do? This volume confronts the challenge of turning knowledge about how to improve performance into actions that produce measurable results. The authors identify the causes of this gap and explain how to close it.
Author: Roger Penrose
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN: 9780195106466
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 484
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Book Description
Presents the author's thesis that consciousness, in its manifestation in the human quality of understanding, is doing something that mere computation cannot; and attempts to understand how such non-computational action might arise within scientifically comprehensive physical laws.
Author: Sayyad Nojavan
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 0128174927
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 294
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Book Description
Risk-Based Energy Management: DC, AC and Hybrid AC-DC Microgrids defines the problems and challenges of DC, AC and hybrid AC-DC microgrids and considers the right tactics and risk-based scheduling to tackle them. The book looks at the intermittent nature of renewable generation, demand and market price with the risk to DC, AC and hybrid AC-DC microgrids, which makes it relevant for anyone in renewable energy demand and supply. As utilization of distributed energy resources and the intermittent nature of renewable generations, demand and market price can put the operation of DC, AC and hybrid AC-DC microgrids at risk, this book presents a timely resource. Discusses both the challenges and solutions surrounding DC, AC and hybrid AC-DC microgrids Proposes robust scheduling of DC, AC and hybrid AC-DC microgrids under uncertain environments Includes modeling upstream grid prices, renewable resources and intermittent load in the decision-making process of DC, AC and hybrid AC-DC microgrids
Author: D. J. Daley
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521640794
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 160
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Book Description
This is a general introduction to the mathematical modelling of diseases.
Author: William MacAskill
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0198722273
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 237
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Book Description
About the bookToby Ord try to fill this gap. They argue that there are distinctive norms that govern how one ought to make decisions and defend an information-sensitive account of how to make such decisions. They do so by developing an analogy between moral uncertainty and social choice, noting that different moral views provide different amounts of information regarding our reasons for action, and arguing that the correct account of decision-making under moral uncertainty must be sensitive to that. Moral Uncertainty also tackles the problem of how to make intertheoretic comparisons, and addresses the implications of their view for metaethics and practical ethics. Very often we are uncertain about what we ought, morally, to do. We do not know how to weigh the interests of animals against humans, how strong our duties are to improve the lives of distant strangers, or how to think about the ethics of bringing new people into existence. But we still need to act. So how should we make decisions in the face of such uncertainty? Though economists and philosophers have extensively studied the issue of decision-making in the face of uncertainty about matters of fact, the question of decision-making given fundamental moral uncertainty has been neglected. In Moral Uncertainty, philosophers William MacAskill, Krister Bykvist, and Toby Ord try to fill this gap. They argue that there are distinctive norms that govern how one ought to make decisions and defend an information-sensitive account of how to make such decisions. They do so by developing an analogy between moral uncertainty and social choice, noting that different moral views provide different amounts of information regarding our reasons for action, and arguing that the correct account of decision-making under moral uncertainty must be sensitive to that. Moral Uncertainty also tackles the problem of how to make intertheoretic comparisons, and addresses the implications of their view for metaethics and practical ethics.
