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Author: William Easterly
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
After excluding countries with high-inflation crises - periods when annual inflation is above 40 percent - the data reveal no evidence of a consistent relationship between growth and inflation, at any frequency. But growth does tend to fall sharply during discrete crises of high inflation and to recover surprisingly strongly after inflation falls. Perhaps inflation crises are purely cyclical, or perhaps in the long run they have a favorable purgative effect. Recent literature suggests that long-run averages of growth and inflation are only weakly correlated and that such correlation is not robust to the exclusion of observations of extreme inflation. Including time series panel data has improved matters, but an aggregate parametric approach remains inconclusive. Bruno and Easterly propose a nonparametric definition of high-inflation crises as periods when annual inflation is above 40 percent. Excluding countries with high-inflation crises, they find no evidence of a consistent relationship between growth and inflation, at any frequency. They do find that growth falls sharply during discrete crises of high inflation, then recovers surprisingly strongly after inflation falls. The fall in growth during a crisis and the recovery of growth after the crisis tend to average out to nearly zero (even slightly above zero); hence no robust cross-section correlation. Their findings could be consistent either with trend stationarity of output (in which inflation crises are purely cyclical phenomena) or with models in which crises have a favorable long-run purgative effect. Their findings do not support the view that reducing high inflation carries heavy output costs in the short to medium run. This paper - a joint product of the Office of the Vice President, Development Economics, and the Macroeconomics and Growth Division, Policy Research Department - is part of a larger effort in the Bank to examine the determinants of economic growth.
Author: William Easterly
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
After excluding countries with high-inflation crises - periods when annual inflation is above 40 percent - the data reveal no evidence of a consistent relationship between growth and inflation, at any frequency. But growth does tend to fall sharply during discrete crises of high inflation and to recover surprisingly strongly after inflation falls. Perhaps inflation crises are purely cyclical, or perhaps in the long run they have a favorable purgative effect. Recent literature suggests that long-run averages of growth and inflation are only weakly correlated and that such correlation is not robust to the exclusion of observations of extreme inflation. Including time series panel data has improved matters, but an aggregate parametric approach remains inconclusive. Bruno and Easterly propose a nonparametric definition of high-inflation crises as periods when annual inflation is above 40 percent. Excluding countries with high-inflation crises, they find no evidence of a consistent relationship between growth and inflation, at any frequency. They do find that growth falls sharply during discrete crises of high inflation, then recovers surprisingly strongly after inflation falls. The fall in growth during a crisis and the recovery of growth after the crisis tend to average out to nearly zero (even slightly above zero); hence no robust cross-section correlation. Their findings could be consistent either with trend stationarity of output (in which inflation crises are purely cyclical phenomena) or with models in which crises have a favorable long-run purgative effect. Their findings do not support the view that reducing high inflation carries heavy output costs in the short to medium run. This paper - a joint product of the Office of the Vice President, Development Economics, and the Macroeconomics and Growth Division, Policy Research Department - is part of a larger effort in the Bank to examine the determinants of economic growth.
Author: Hans-Jürgen Engelbrecht
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Author: Michael Bruno
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic development
Languages : en
Pages : 64
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Book Description
Recent literature suggests that long-run averages of growth and inflation are only weakly correlated and such correlation is not robust to exclusion of extreme inflation observations; inclusion of time series panel data has improved matters, but an aggregate parametric approach remains inconclusive. We propose a nonparametric definition of high inflation crises as periods when inflation is above 40 percent annually. Excluding countries with high inflation crises, we find no evidence of any consistent relationship between growth and inflation at any frequency. However, we find that growth falls sharply during discrete high inflation crises, then recovers surprisingly strongly after inflation falls. The fall in growth during crisis and recovery of growth after crisis tend to average out to close to zero (even slightly above zero), hence the lack of a robust cross-section correlation. Our findings could be consistent either with trend stationarity of output, in which inflation crises are purely cyclical phenomena, or with models in which crises have a favorable long-run purgative effect. Our findings do not support the view that reduction of high inflation carries heavy short-to-medium run output costs.
Author: Michael Bruno
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Anti-inflationary policies
Languages : en
Pages : 272
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Author: Hans-Jürgen Engelbrecht
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic development
Languages : en
Pages : 18
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Book Description
Author: Michael D. Bordo
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226066959
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 545
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Book Description
Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.
Author: Ms.Valerie Cerra
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484325753
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 31
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Book Description
All types of recessions, on average, not just those associated with financial and political crises (as in Cerra and Saxena, AER 2008), lead to permanent output losses. These findings have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. A new paradigm of the business cycle needs to account for shifts in trend output and the puzzling inconsistency of output dynamics with other cyclical components of production. The ‘output gap’ can be ill-conceived, poorly measured, and inconsistent over time. Persistent losses require more buffers and crisis-avoidance policies, affecting tradeoffs in prudential, macroeconomic, and reserve management policies. The frequency and depth of crises are key determinants of long-term growth and drive a new stylized model of economic development.
Author: Mr.Irineu E. de Carvalho Filho
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451963041
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 24
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Book Description
This paper appraises how countries with inflation targeting fared during the current crisis, with the goal of establishing the stylized facts that will guide and motivate future research. We find that since August 2008, IT countries lowered nominal policy rates by more and this loosening translated into an even larger differential in real interest rates relative to other countries; were less likely to face deflation scares; and saw sharp real depreciations not associated with a greater perception of risk by markets. We also find some weak evidence that IT countries did better on unemployment rates and advanced IT countries have had relatively stronger industrial production performance. Finally, we find that advanced IT countries had higher GDP growth rates than their non-IT peers, but find no such difference for emerging countries or the full sample.
Author: Vijendra Kasturi Ranga Varadaraja Rao
Publisher: Delhi : Vikas Publishing House
ISBN:
Category : ECONOMIC CRISIS
Languages : en
Pages : 96
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Book Description
India. Monograph on the short term inflation crisis, its causes and economic policy recommendations - includes supply and demand factors influencing inflation, such as fiscal policy, monetary policy, price controls, the black market, a shrinking tax base, insufficient agricultural production and industrial production, etc. Statistical tables.
Author: Lorie Tarshis
Publisher: James Lorimer & Company
ISBN: 9780888626257
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 212
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Book Description
Lorie Tarshis held that much of the economic suffering in the 1970s was not necessary, that the crisis could have been easily eased had it not been for governments' faulty diagnoses and poorly-designed prescriptions. Faced with increasingly serious energy shortages, economic slowdowns, rising unemployment and skyrocketing Third World debt, Western governments responded with inflation-fighting policies left over from the Second World War that served only to exaccerbate the situation. In this book Tarshis recommended an overall strategy to confront these problems without resorting to the stopgaps then in vogue with government decision makers. World Economy in Crisis offers an acute diagnosis of the pervasive malaise facing the world economy in the 1970s, and a critical perspective on contemporary official responses to it.
