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Author: Daniel Kahneman
Publisher: Little, Brown
ISBN: 031645138X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 429
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Book Description
From the Nobel Prize-winning author of Thinking, Fast and Slow and the coauthor of Nudge, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones—"a tour de force” (New York Times). Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients—or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants—or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical. In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions. Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment—and what we can do about it.
Author: Daniel Kahneman
Publisher: Little, Brown
ISBN: 031645138X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 429
Get Book Here
Book Description
From the Nobel Prize-winning author of Thinking, Fast and Slow and the coauthor of Nudge, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones—"a tour de force” (New York Times). Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients—or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants—or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical. In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions. Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment—and what we can do about it.
Author: A.J. Maule
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 147576846X
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 364
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Book Description
Some years ago we, the editors of this volume, found out about each other's deeply rooted interest in the concept of time, the usage of time, and the effects of shortage of time on human thought and behavior. Since then we have fostered the idea of bringing together different perspectives in this area. We are now, there fore, very content that our idea has materialized in the present volume. There is both anecdotal and empirical evidence to suggest that time con straints may affect behavior. Managers and other professional decision makers frequently identify time pressure as a major constraint on their behavior (Isen berg, 1984). Chamberlain and Zika (1990) provide empirical support for this view, showing that complaints of insufficient time are the most frequently report ed everyday minor stressors or hassles for all groups of people except the elderly. Similarly, studies in occupational settings have identified time pressure as one of the central components of workload (Derrich, 1988; O'Donnel & Eggemeier, 1986).
Author: Michael A. Bishop
Publisher: Oxford University Press on Demand
ISBN: 9780195162295
Category : Philosophy
Languages : en
Pages : 219
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Book Description
Bishop & Trout present a new approach to epistemoloy, aiming to liberate the subject from the 'scholastic' debates of analytic philosophy. Rather, they wish to treat epistemology as a branch of the philosophy of science.
Author: B. Brehmer
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 0080867081
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 529
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Book Description
There are four basic goals for research in SJT (Social Judgment Theory): - to analyze judgment tasks and judgmental processes; - to analyze the relations between judgmental systems (i.e. to analyze agreement and its structure), and between tasks and judgmental systems (i.e. to analyze achievement and its structure; - to understand how relations between judgmental systems and between judgmental systems and tasks come to be whatever they are (i.e. to understand processes of communication and learning and their effects upon achievement and agreement); - to find means of improving the relation between judgmental systems (improving agreement) and between judgmental systems and tasks (improving achievement).
Author: Peter M. Todd
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 019971794X
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 609
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Book Description
"More information is always better, and full information is best. More computation is always better, and optimization is best." More-is-better ideals such as these have long shaped our vision of rationality. Yet humans and other animals typically rely on simple heuristics to solve adaptive problems, focusing on one or a few important cues and ignoring the rest, and shortcutting computation rather than striving for as much as possible. In this book, we argue that in an uncertain world, more information and computation are not always better, and we ask when, and why, less can be more. The answers to these questions constitute the idea of ecological rationality: how we are able to achieve intelligence in the world by using simple heuristics matched to the environments we face, exploiting the structures inherent in our physical, biological, social, and cultural surroundings.
Author: Richard E. Nisbett
Publisher: Prentice Hall
ISBN:
Category : Philosophy
Languages : en
Pages : 362
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Book Description
Author: Michael Hallsworth
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 0262539403
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 250
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Book Description
The definitive introduction to the behavioral insights approach, which applies evidence about human behavior to practical problems. Our behavior is strongly influenced by factors that lie outside our conscious awareness, although we tend to underestimate the power of this “automatic” side of our behavior. As a result, governments make ineffective policies, businesses create bad products, and individuals make unrealistic plans. In contrast, the behavioral insights approach applies evidence about actual human behavior—rather than assumptions about it—to practical problems. This volume in the MIT Press Essential Knowledge series, written by two leading experts in the field, offers an accessible introduction to behavioral insights, describing core features, origins, and practical examples. These insights have opened up new ways of addressing some of the biggest challenges faced by societies, changing the way that governments, businesses, and nonprofits work in the process. This book shows how the approach is grounded in a concern with practical problems, the use of evidence about human behavior to address those problems, and experimentation to evaluate the impact of the solutions. It gives an overview of the approach's origins in psychology and behavioral economics, its early adoption by the UK's pioneering “nudge unit,” and its recent expansion into new areas. The book also provides examples from across different policy areas and guidance on how to run a behavioral insights project. Finally, the book outlines the limitations and ethical implications of the approach, and what the future holds for this fast-moving area.
Author: Thomas Gilovich
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521796798
Category : Education
Languages : en
Pages : 884
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Book Description
This book, first published in 2002, compiles psychologists' best attempts to answer important questions about intuitive judgment.
Author: Eric J. Johnson
Publisher: Penguin
ISBN: 0593084438
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 401
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Book Description
A leader in decision-making research reveals how choices are designed—and why it’s so important to understand their inner workings Every time we make a choice, our minds go through an elaborate process most of us never even notice. We’re influenced by subtle aspects of the way the choice is presented that often make the difference between a good decision and a bad one. How do we overcome the common faults in our decision-making and enable better choices in any situation? The answer lies in more conscious and intentional decision design. Going well beyond the familiar concepts of nudges and defaults, The Elements of Choice offers a comprehensive, systematic guide to creating effective choice architectures, the environments in which we make decisions. The designers of decisions need to consider all the elements involved in presenting a choice: how many options to offer, how to present those options, how to account for our natural cognitive shortcuts, and much more. These levers are unappreciated and we’re often unaware of just how much they influence our reasoning every day. Eric J. Johnson is the lead researcher behind some of the most well-known and cited research on decision-making. He draws on his original studies and extensive work in business and public policy and synthesizes the latest research in the field to reveal how the structure of choices affects outcomes. We are all choice architects, for ourselves and for others. Whether you’re helping students choose the right school, helping patients pick the best health insurance plan, or deciding how to invest for your own retirement, this book provides the tools you need to guide anyone to the decision that’s right for them.
Author: Daniel Kahneman
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521284141
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 574
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Book Description
Thirty-five chapters describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments, but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas rather than describing single experimental studies.
