Guatemala: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Informational Annex PDF Download
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Author: International Monetary
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 75
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Book Description
The remarkable resilience of the economy during the pandemic, driven by policy support, favorable credit conditions and a favorable external environment, has almost returned the level of GDP to its pre-pandemic projected trend. Reflecting the prevalence of domestic factors, headline inflation eased to 3 percent (the lower limit of the inflation target band) at end-2021. For 2022, growth is expected to moderate while inflation is expected to rise in line with global inflationary pressures. Despite the resilience, social indicators such as poverty and malnutrition remain high. The outlook is very uncertain with significant downside risks, mostly external, including from the pandemic, geopolitical tensions, and the tightening of global financial conditions in response to global inflationary pressures.
Author: International Monetary
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 75
Get Book Here
Book Description
The remarkable resilience of the economy during the pandemic, driven by policy support, favorable credit conditions and a favorable external environment, has almost returned the level of GDP to its pre-pandemic projected trend. Reflecting the prevalence of domestic factors, headline inflation eased to 3 percent (the lower limit of the inflation target band) at end-2021. For 2022, growth is expected to moderate while inflation is expected to rise in line with global inflationary pressures. Despite the resilience, social indicators such as poverty and malnutrition remain high. The outlook is very uncertain with significant downside risks, mostly external, including from the pandemic, geopolitical tensions, and the tightening of global financial conditions in response to global inflationary pressures.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Guatemala
Languages : en
Pages : 70
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Book Description
Author: International Monetary
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513573209
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 69
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Book Description
Guatemala has managed to keep infections and deaths moderate during the pandemic. The economic impact of COVID-19 has been mild given an early reopening of the economy, unprecedented policy support, and resilient remittances and exports. However, despite large-scale government interventions to support households, poverty and malnutrition have deteriorated following COVID-19 and the two major hurricanes battering Guatemala last November.
Author: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484324072
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 42
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Book Description
This paper analyzes the effect of an IMF Staff-Monitored Program for Chad to enhance economic development. Weak institutional capacity and governance concerns have limited economic development and donor support in Chad. It is highlighted that the reduction in the nonoil primary deficit envisaged in the 2013 budget appears appropriate, but expenditures linked to the regional security situation and lower than anticipated oil revenues imply large financing needs. There are significant economic and political risks to program implementation,; the regional security situation remains volatile, and the economy is highly dependent on volatile oil revenue.
Author: M. Ayhan Kose
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464815453
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 403
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Book Description
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475504330
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 51
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Book Description
This Article IV Consultation reports that macroeconomic developments in Guatemala have been broadly positive since 2010. Although the external current account deficit widened in 2011, the surplus in the capital account was larger, partly owing to banks’ increased access to foreign credit lines. Executive Directors have welcomed Guatemala’s economic recovery and the favorable outlook, considering that the policy stance for 2012 is broadly appropriate. Directors have also encouraged the authorities to improve public expenditure management.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498338127
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 63
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Book Description
KEY ISSUES Context. Guatemala’s economy has performed solidly since the 2008–09 crisis. Output has converged to potential, inflation is under control, and macroeconomic policies remain prudent. However, risks to the outlook are tilted downwards, while buffers are modest and space for counter-cyclical policies is thin. Long-term inclusive growth is constrained by low investment in physical and human capital, institutional weaknesses, and lack of security. Near-term policies are broadly appropriate. With the output gap closed, the broadly neutral fiscal stance is adequate. The monetary stance is slightly expansionary, but inflation is at the bottom of the target range. The authorities should stand ready to tighten monetary policy if inflationary pressures re-emerge. Fiscal sustainability should be enhanced over the medium term. Though the debt-to- GDP ratio remains moderate, the ability to implement counter-cyclical fiscal policies is limited, not least by Guatemala’s high government debt-to-revenue ratio. Debt stabilization requires moderate tightening of the budgetary stance over the medium term. The emphasis should be on revenue mobilization, given the overall low level of spending. Consolidating gains from the 2012 tax reform, which has so far proved disappointing, will be critical. Efforts to upgrade the monetary and exchange policy framework should continue. Anchoring low and stable inflation will require measures to bolster monetary policy transmission, including by expanding exchange rate flexibility. This should provide an additional shock absorber and reduce incentives for dollarization. It would also establish the inflation target as the undisputed primary objective of the central bank. Further strengthening of the financial system is necessary. The 2014 FSAP update found that Guatemala has made significant progress in financial regulation and that the banking system appears to be generally sound. However, efforts are still needed to improve consolidated supervision and the regulation of off-shore banks. The time is also ripe for a phased move to Basel III standards. Structural reforms are vital to achieving long-term inclusive growth. Paving the way towards high, inclusive growth will depend upon raising the low tax-to-GDP ratio to support priority public spending, thereby addressing critical social and developmental needs.
Author: International Monetary
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 102
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Book Description
Guatemala has weathered many crises well. Its 's economy has proved resilient, building on a solid track-record of prudent policies--low fiscal deficits and debt-to-GDP ratio, and high international reserves--and strong remittance inflows. After a strong rebound in 2021, Guatemala's economy has been slowing down--with GDP growth halving to a solid 4.1 percent in 2022. Inflation increased in 2022 but peaked in February 2023 (9.9 percent, year-on-year) to drop to 8.71 percent in March 2023. At the same time, public investment tends to be under-executed, poverty remains high, and tax revenue is weak, while substantial institutional, investment, and social gaps and governance weaknesses hinder progress. Addressing these requires higher broad-based and inclusive growth and further progress in the reform agenda. The authorities' goal to attain investment grade and attract foreign investment could unlock opportunities. General elections are due June 25, 2023 (the second round on August 20, if needed).
Author: International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513568817
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 74
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Book Description
A recovery is underway, but the economic fallout from the global pandemic could be with us for years to come. With the crisis exacerbating prepandemic vulnerabilities, country prospects are diverging. Nearly half of emerging market and developing economies and some middle-income countries are now at risk of falling further behind, undoing much of the progress made toward achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1589064488
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 224
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Book Description
This paper examines contractionary currency crashes in developing countries. It explores the causes of India’s productivity surge around 1980, more than a decade before serious economic reforms were initiated. The paper finds evidence that the trigger may have been an attitudinal shift by the government in the early 1980s that, unlike the reforms of the 1990s, was pro-business rather than pro-market in character, favoring the interests of existing businesses rather than new entrants or consumers. A relatively small shift elicited a large productivity response, because India was far away from its income possibility frontier.
