Global Imbalances and the Current Account Adjustment Process : An Empirical Analysis PDF Download
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Author: Marius Tippkötter
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Author: Marius Tippkötter
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Author: Maurice Obstfeld
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Balance of trade
Languages : en
Pages : 64
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Book Description
"Gross stocks of foreign assets have increased rapidly relative to national outputs since 1990, and the short-run capital gains and losses on those assets can amount to significant fractions of GDP. These fluctuations in asset values render the national income and product account measure of the current account balance increasingly inadequate as a summary of the change in a country's net foreign assets. Nonetheless, unusually large current account imbalances, especially deficits, should remain high on policymakers' list of concerns, even for the richer and less credit-constrained countries. Extreme imbalances signal the need for large and perhaps abrupt real exchange rate changes in the future, changes that might have undesired political and financial consequences given the incompleteness of domestic and international asset markets. Furthermore, of the two sources of the change in net foreign assets -- the current account and the capital gain on the net foreign asset position -- the former is better understood and more amenable to policy influence. Systematic government attempts to manipulate international asset values in order to change the net foreign asset position could have a destabilizing effect on market expectations"--NBER website
Author: Mr.Gian Milesi-Ferretti
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451858221
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 17
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The paper studies determinants and consequences of sharp reductions in current account imbalances (reversals) in low- and middle-income countries. It poses two questions: what triggers reversals, and what factors explain how costly reversals are? It finds that both domestic variables, such as the current account balance, openness to trade, and the level of reserves, and external variables, such as terms of trade shocks, U.S. real interest rates, and growth in industrial countries, seem to play important roles in explaining reversals in current account imbalances. It also finds some evidence that countries with a less appreciated real exchange rate, higher investment, and more openness before the reversal tend to grow faster after a reversal occurs.
Author: Sebastian Edwards
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Accounts current
Languages : en
Pages : 86
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"In this paper I analyze the anatomy of current account adjustments in the world economy during the last three decades. The main findings may be summarized as follows: (a) Major reversals in current account deficits have tended to be associated to sudden stops' of capital inflows. (b) The probability of a country experiencing a reversal is captured by a small number of variables that include the (lagged) current account to GDP ratio, the external debt to GDP ratio, the level of international reserves, domestic credit creation, and debt services. (c) Current account reversals have had a negative effect on real growth that goes beyond their direct effect on investments. (d) There is persuasive evidence indicating that the negative effect of current account reversals on growth will depend on the country's degree of openness. More open countries will suffer less in terms of lower growth than countries with a lower degree of openness. (e) I was unable to find evidence supporting the hypothesis that countries with a higher degree of dollarization are more severely affected by current account reversals than countries with a lower degree of dollarization. And, (f) the empirical analysis suggests that countries with more flexible exchange rate regimes are able to accommodate the shocks stemming from a reversal better than countries with more rigid exchange rate regime"--NBER website
Author: Mr.Philip R. Lane
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 149836361X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 45
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This paper has two objectives. First, it reviews the recent dynamics of global imbalances (both “flow” and “stock” imbalances), with a special focus on the shifting position of Latin America in the global distribution. Second, it examines the cross-country variation in external adjustment over 2008-2012. In particular, it shows how pre-crisis external imbalances have strong predictive power for post-crisis macroeconomic outcomes, allowing for variation across different exchange rate regimes. We emphasize that the bulk of external adjustment has taken the form of “expenditure reduction”, with “expenditure switching” only playing a limited role.
Author: D.E. Fair
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9400908717
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 389
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Book Description
The papers collected in this volume are those presented at the fourteenth Colloquium arranged by the Societe Universitaire Europeenne de Recher ches Financieres (SUERF), which took place in Helsinki in May 1988. The Society is supported by a large number of central banks and commercial banks, by other financial and business institutions and by personal subscriptions from academics and others interested in monetary and financial problems. Since its establishment in 1963 it has developed as a forum for the exchange of information, research results and ideas among academics and practitioners in these fields, including central bank officials and civil servants responsible for formulating and applying monetary and financial policies, national and international. A major activity of SUERF is to organise and conduct Colloquia on subjects of topical interest to its members. The titles, places and dates of previous Colloquia for which volumes of the collected papers were published are noted, on the last page of this volume. Volumes were not produced for Colloquia held at Tarragona, Spain in October 1970 under the title "Monetary Policy and New Developments in Banking" and at Strasbourg, France in January 1972 under the title "Aspects of European Monetary Union".
Author: Mr.Steven Phillips
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484346785
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 68
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The External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology has been developed by the IMF’s Research Department as a successor to the CGER methodology for assessing current accounts and exchange rates in a multilaterally consistent manner. Compared to other approaches, EBA emphasizes distinguishing between the positive empirical analysis and the normative assessment of current accounts and exchange rates, and highlights the roles of policies and policy distortions. This paper provides a comprehensive description and discussion of the 2013 version (“2.0”) of the EBA methodology, including areas for its further development.
Author: Edwin M. Truman
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Balance of payments
Languages : en
Pages : 45
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Author: Guy Debelle
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Balance of payments
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Author: Philip R. Lane
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 66
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Book Description
Although Europe in the aggregate is a not a major contributor to global current account imbalances, its trade and financial linkages with the rest of the world mean that it will still be affected by a shift in the current configuration of external deficits and surpluses. We assess the macroeconomic impact on Europe of global current account adjustment under alternative scenarios, emphasizing both trade and financial channels. Finally, we consider heterogeneous exposure across individual European economies to external adjustment shocks.
