Author: Jon Moran
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1317132017
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 192
Book Description
Moran concentrates on three aims: to provide an overview of British military intelligence operations in the last 30 years which concentrates on operational not strategic intelligence; to examine the debates over ethics and effectiveness that have followed these operations; and to examine the increasing attempts to place military intelligence under the same type of regulation that police and security intelligence operations have been subject to. As such, he provides a timely overview of intelligence effectiveness and ethics in this area of heightened interest and relevance in terms of the recent UK deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan, and in the light of the UK Strategic Defence Review. This book is not a philosophical discussion of military ethics; nor is it a study of operations alone. In the light of experiences from Northern Ireland to Afghanistan, it examines the debates over effectiveness which have surrounded British military intelligence activities whilst tying these debates closely to the ethical issues they raise. Each stage of operations is evaluated in context. Interest will cut across disciplines and as such this book will appeal to intelligence, counter-terrorism, military studies, politics, human rights and philosophy practitioners, scholars and students.
From Northern Ireland to Afghanistan
Author: Jon Moran
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1317132017
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 192
Book Description
Moran concentrates on three aims: to provide an overview of British military intelligence operations in the last 30 years which concentrates on operational not strategic intelligence; to examine the debates over ethics and effectiveness that have followed these operations; and to examine the increasing attempts to place military intelligence under the same type of regulation that police and security intelligence operations have been subject to. As such, he provides a timely overview of intelligence effectiveness and ethics in this area of heightened interest and relevance in terms of the recent UK deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan, and in the light of the UK Strategic Defence Review. This book is not a philosophical discussion of military ethics; nor is it a study of operations alone. In the light of experiences from Northern Ireland to Afghanistan, it examines the debates over effectiveness which have surrounded British military intelligence activities whilst tying these debates closely to the ethical issues they raise. Each stage of operations is evaluated in context. Interest will cut across disciplines and as such this book will appeal to intelligence, counter-terrorism, military studies, politics, human rights and philosophy practitioners, scholars and students.
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1317132017
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 192
Book Description
Moran concentrates on three aims: to provide an overview of British military intelligence operations in the last 30 years which concentrates on operational not strategic intelligence; to examine the debates over ethics and effectiveness that have followed these operations; and to examine the increasing attempts to place military intelligence under the same type of regulation that police and security intelligence operations have been subject to. As such, he provides a timely overview of intelligence effectiveness and ethics in this area of heightened interest and relevance in terms of the recent UK deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan, and in the light of the UK Strategic Defence Review. This book is not a philosophical discussion of military ethics; nor is it a study of operations alone. In the light of experiences from Northern Ireland to Afghanistan, it examines the debates over effectiveness which have surrounded British military intelligence activities whilst tying these debates closely to the ethical issues they raise. Each stage of operations is evaluated in context. Interest will cut across disciplines and as such this book will appeal to intelligence, counter-terrorism, military studies, politics, human rights and philosophy practitioners, scholars and students.
A Long Long War
Author: Ken Wharton
Publisher: Grub Street Publishers
ISBN: 1907677607
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 524
Book Description
The author of Bloody Belfast delivers “a vivid and unforgettable record” of the Northern Irish conflict that captures the “true horrors of war” (Best of British). There are stories from some of the most seminal moments during the troubles in Northern Ireland—the Crossmaglen firefights, the 1988 corporals killings, the Ballygawley bus bombing, and more—told from the perspective of the British soldiers who served there between 1969 and 1998. This was a war against terrorists who knew no mercy or compassion; a war involving sectarian hatred and violent death. Over 1,000 British lives were lost in a place just thirty minutes flying time away from the mainland. The British Army was sent into Northern Ireland on August 14, 1969, by the Wilson government as law and order had broken down and the population (mainly Catholics) and property were at grave risk. Between then and 1998, some 300,000 British troops served in Northern Ireland. This is their story—in their own words—from first to last. Receiving a remarkable amount of cooperation from Northern Ireland veterans eager to tell their story, the author has compiled a vivid and unforgettable record. Their experiences—sad and poignant, fearful and violent, courageous in the face of adversity, even downright hilarious—make for compelling reading. Their voices need to be heard. “One of the first and only books to offer the perspective of regular British soldiers serving in the Northern Irish conflict . . . a valuable addition to the extensive literature about the Irish Troubles.” —Choice
Publisher: Grub Street Publishers
ISBN: 1907677607
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 524
Book Description
The author of Bloody Belfast delivers “a vivid and unforgettable record” of the Northern Irish conflict that captures the “true horrors of war” (Best of British). There are stories from some of the most seminal moments during the troubles in Northern Ireland—the Crossmaglen firefights, the 1988 corporals killings, the Ballygawley bus bombing, and more—told from the perspective of the British soldiers who served there between 1969 and 1998. This was a war against terrorists who knew no mercy or compassion; a war involving sectarian hatred and violent death. Over 1,000 British lives were lost in a place just thirty minutes flying time away from the mainland. The British Army was sent into Northern Ireland on August 14, 1969, by the Wilson government as law and order had broken down and the population (mainly Catholics) and property were at grave risk. Between then and 1998, some 300,000 British troops served in Northern Ireland. This is their story—in their own words—from first to last. Receiving a remarkable amount of cooperation from Northern Ireland veterans eager to tell their story, the author has compiled a vivid and unforgettable record. Their experiences—sad and poignant, fearful and violent, courageous in the face of adversity, even downright hilarious—make for compelling reading. Their voices need to be heard. “One of the first and only books to offer the perspective of regular British soldiers serving in the Northern Irish conflict . . . a valuable addition to the extensive literature about the Irish Troubles.” —Choice
The UK Deployment to Afghanistan
Author: Great Britain: Parliament: House of Commons: Defence Committee
Publisher: The Stationery Office
ISBN: 9780215028280
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 98
Book Description
The UK is currently involved in two military operations in Afghanistan: the US-led coalition Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) with a counter-terrorism mission; and the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) with a security and stabilisation mission. The UK-led Allied Rapid Reaction Corps (ARRC) will command the ISAF from May 2006 to February 2007, a period which will see the extension of the ISAF's mission into the Western and Southern provinces of Afghanistan. The Committee's report focuses on pre-deployment issues for the UK forces to be deployed in Helmand province. The report considers the likely problems they will face in attempting to balance the goals of bringing greater security to the province as well as reducing the opium trade. The report raises concerns that the UK airlift and close air support capability may not be sufficient to support the Helmand deployment, and also about the effect the Helmand deployment might have on the overstretch of UK armed forces, particularly on pinchpoint trade personnel. It also calls on the MoD to provide greater clarity about the responsibilities of UK forces to detainees under their care, and in terms of the rights of detainees established in the Memorandum of Understanding with the Government of Afghanistan.
Publisher: The Stationery Office
ISBN: 9780215028280
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 98
Book Description
The UK is currently involved in two military operations in Afghanistan: the US-led coalition Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) with a counter-terrorism mission; and the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) with a security and stabilisation mission. The UK-led Allied Rapid Reaction Corps (ARRC) will command the ISAF from May 2006 to February 2007, a period which will see the extension of the ISAF's mission into the Western and Southern provinces of Afghanistan. The Committee's report focuses on pre-deployment issues for the UK forces to be deployed in Helmand province. The report considers the likely problems they will face in attempting to balance the goals of bringing greater security to the province as well as reducing the opium trade. The report raises concerns that the UK airlift and close air support capability may not be sufficient to support the Helmand deployment, and also about the effect the Helmand deployment might have on the overstretch of UK armed forces, particularly on pinchpoint trade personnel. It also calls on the MoD to provide greater clarity about the responsibilities of UK forces to detainees under their care, and in terms of the rights of detainees established in the Memorandum of Understanding with the Government of Afghanistan.
Terrorist Informers in Northern Ireland
Author: Samantha Newbery
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0192885847
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 328
Book Description
By using informers to provide intelligence on terrorism, the security and intelligence agencies who handle them gain knowledge of their offences. Charges may then be brought against them, provided evidence supports this course of action. But if imprisoned, an informer no longer has access to the time-sensitive, potentially life-saving intelligence they once had. There is therefore a tension between continuing to use an informer to provide intelligence on terrorism and upholding the law. This tension is at the heart of this book. Terrorist Informers in Northern Ireland analyses prominent terrorist informers such as Agent Stakeknife, and lesser-known examples, who collectively were active throughout Northern Ireland from the 1970s to the present. It looks at both those involved with republican groups and with loyalist groups, and also those working for the police, the armed forces, and MI5. Valuable pieces of the puzzle are unearthed in sources such as court judgments, official reports, and in interviews conducted by the author. The book also analyses the way successive governments, the police, the armed forces, and MI5 have addressed the regulation of terrorist informers' involvement in criminality, as well as allegations of 'collusion' between informers on one hand and the security and intelligence agencies on the other. Accordingly, the book also assesses the varied retrospective investigations into the use of terrorist informers, and therefore the competing needs for secrecy and transparency. As Samantha Newbery's research here shows, although there is a tension between intelligence and the law, this can be successfully navigated.
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0192885847
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 328
Book Description
By using informers to provide intelligence on terrorism, the security and intelligence agencies who handle them gain knowledge of their offences. Charges may then be brought against them, provided evidence supports this course of action. But if imprisoned, an informer no longer has access to the time-sensitive, potentially life-saving intelligence they once had. There is therefore a tension between continuing to use an informer to provide intelligence on terrorism and upholding the law. This tension is at the heart of this book. Terrorist Informers in Northern Ireland analyses prominent terrorist informers such as Agent Stakeknife, and lesser-known examples, who collectively were active throughout Northern Ireland from the 1970s to the present. It looks at both those involved with republican groups and with loyalist groups, and also those working for the police, the armed forces, and MI5. Valuable pieces of the puzzle are unearthed in sources such as court judgments, official reports, and in interviews conducted by the author. The book also analyses the way successive governments, the police, the armed forces, and MI5 have addressed the regulation of terrorist informers' involvement in criminality, as well as allegations of 'collusion' between informers on one hand and the security and intelligence agencies on the other. Accordingly, the book also assesses the varied retrospective investigations into the use of terrorist informers, and therefore the competing needs for secrecy and transparency. As Samantha Newbery's research here shows, although there is a tension between intelligence and the law, this can be successfully navigated.
Crossing Zero
Author: Elizabeth Gould
Publisher: City Lights Books
ISBN: 087286569X
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 266
Book Description
The war in Afghanistan has become the most complex foreign policy problem the United States has ever faced, spreading into Pakistan and involving the conflicting interests of Russia, India, China and Iran. Written as a companion to Elizabeth Gould and Paul Fitzgerald's widely acclaimed book Invisible History: Afghanistan's Untold Story, Crossing Zero focuses on the nuances of the Obama administration's evolving military and political strategy, the people implementing it, and the long-term consequences for the United States and the region. "Fitzgerald and Gould have consistently raised the difficult questions and inconvenient truths about western engagement in Afghanistan. While many analysts and observers have attempted to wish a reality on a grim and tragic situation in Afghanistan, Fitzgerald and Gould have systematically dug through the archives and historical record with integrity and foresight to reveal a series of misguided strategies and approaches that have contributed to what has become a tragic quagmire in Afghanistan. I suspect that many of their assessments while presently viewed as controversial and contentious, will eventually be considered conventional wisdom."—Thomas Johnson "Americans are now beginning to grasp the scope of the mess their leaders made while pursuing misguided military adventures into regions of Central Asia we once called 'remote.' How this happened—and what the US can do to extricate itself from its entanglements in Pakistan and Afghanistan—is the story of Crossing Zero. Based on decades of study and research, this book draws lines and connects dots in ways few others do. It is clear, sober and methodical—an ideal handbook for anyone seeking to understand how the US became the latest imperial power to blunder into this turbulent and fascinating region."—Stephen Kinzer, author of All the Shah's Men and Reset: Iran, Turkey and America's Future "I loved it. An extraordinary contribution to understanding war and geo-politics in Afghanistan that will shock most Americans by its revelations of official American government complicity in using, shielding, sponsoring and supporting terrorism. A devastating indictment on the behind-the-scenes shenanigans by some of America's most respected statesmen."—Daniel Estulin "Gould and Fitzgerald have identified the triumphalist strain that has marked American foreign policy over the past 100 years and documented President Obama's failure to introduce change to American national security policy. The war in Afghanistan is consistent with previous failures in U.S. policymaking over the past 50 years as well as with the misuse of military force. This book should be required reading at the National Security Council and the Pentagon."—Melvin A. Goodman; CIA Senior Soviet Analyst, 1966-1990; Professor of International Security at the National War College,1986-2004; Senior Fellow, Center for International Policy, Washington, DC. Paul Fitzgerald and Elizabeth Gould, a husband and wife team, began working together in 1979 co-producing a documentary for Paul's television show, Watchworks. Called, The Arms Race and the Economy, A Delicate Balance, they found themselves in the midst of a swirling controversy that was to boil over a few months later with the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Their acquisition of the first visas to enter Afghanistan granted to an American TV crew in the spring of 1981, brought them into the middle of the most heated Cold War controversy since Vietnam. But the pictures and the people inside Soviet occupied Afghanistan told a very different story from the one being broadcast on the evening news.
Publisher: City Lights Books
ISBN: 087286569X
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 266
Book Description
The war in Afghanistan has become the most complex foreign policy problem the United States has ever faced, spreading into Pakistan and involving the conflicting interests of Russia, India, China and Iran. Written as a companion to Elizabeth Gould and Paul Fitzgerald's widely acclaimed book Invisible History: Afghanistan's Untold Story, Crossing Zero focuses on the nuances of the Obama administration's evolving military and political strategy, the people implementing it, and the long-term consequences for the United States and the region. "Fitzgerald and Gould have consistently raised the difficult questions and inconvenient truths about western engagement in Afghanistan. While many analysts and observers have attempted to wish a reality on a grim and tragic situation in Afghanistan, Fitzgerald and Gould have systematically dug through the archives and historical record with integrity and foresight to reveal a series of misguided strategies and approaches that have contributed to what has become a tragic quagmire in Afghanistan. I suspect that many of their assessments while presently viewed as controversial and contentious, will eventually be considered conventional wisdom."—Thomas Johnson "Americans are now beginning to grasp the scope of the mess their leaders made while pursuing misguided military adventures into regions of Central Asia we once called 'remote.' How this happened—and what the US can do to extricate itself from its entanglements in Pakistan and Afghanistan—is the story of Crossing Zero. Based on decades of study and research, this book draws lines and connects dots in ways few others do. It is clear, sober and methodical—an ideal handbook for anyone seeking to understand how the US became the latest imperial power to blunder into this turbulent and fascinating region."—Stephen Kinzer, author of All the Shah's Men and Reset: Iran, Turkey and America's Future "I loved it. An extraordinary contribution to understanding war and geo-politics in Afghanistan that will shock most Americans by its revelations of official American government complicity in using, shielding, sponsoring and supporting terrorism. A devastating indictment on the behind-the-scenes shenanigans by some of America's most respected statesmen."—Daniel Estulin "Gould and Fitzgerald have identified the triumphalist strain that has marked American foreign policy over the past 100 years and documented President Obama's failure to introduce change to American national security policy. The war in Afghanistan is consistent with previous failures in U.S. policymaking over the past 50 years as well as with the misuse of military force. This book should be required reading at the National Security Council and the Pentagon."—Melvin A. Goodman; CIA Senior Soviet Analyst, 1966-1990; Professor of International Security at the National War College,1986-2004; Senior Fellow, Center for International Policy, Washington, DC. Paul Fitzgerald and Elizabeth Gould, a husband and wife team, began working together in 1979 co-producing a documentary for Paul's television show, Watchworks. Called, The Arms Race and the Economy, A Delicate Balance, they found themselves in the midst of a swirling controversy that was to boil over a few months later with the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Their acquisition of the first visas to enter Afghanistan granted to an American TV crew in the spring of 1981, brought them into the middle of the most heated Cold War controversy since Vietnam. But the pictures and the people inside Soviet occupied Afghanistan told a very different story from the one being broadcast on the evening news.
Secret Victory
Author: William Matchett
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781527202054
Category : Irish Republican Army
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
Secret Victory is captivating and disturbing in equal measure. It reveal's how the IRA was infiltrated, degraded and strategically defeated - at times with violent and deadly consequences. To read this book is to understand how intelligence drives irregular conflicts.
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781527202054
Category : Irish Republican Army
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
Secret Victory is captivating and disturbing in equal measure. It reveal's how the IRA was infiltrated, degraded and strategically defeated - at times with violent and deadly consequences. To read this book is to understand how intelligence drives irregular conflicts.
Losing Small Wars
Author: Frank Ledwidge
Publisher: Yale University Press
ISBN: 0300229097
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 339
Book Description
This new edition of Frank Ledwidge’s eye-opening analysis of British involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan unpicks the causes and enormous costs of military failure. Updated throughout, and with fresh chapters assessing and enumerating the overall military performance since 2011—including Libya, ISIS, and the Chilcot findings—Ledwidge shows how lessons continue to go unlearned. “A brave and important book; essential reading for anyone wanting insights into the dysfunction within the British military today, and the consequences this has on the lives of innocent civilians caught up in war.”—Times Literary Supplement
Publisher: Yale University Press
ISBN: 0300229097
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 339
Book Description
This new edition of Frank Ledwidge’s eye-opening analysis of British involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan unpicks the causes and enormous costs of military failure. Updated throughout, and with fresh chapters assessing and enumerating the overall military performance since 2011—including Libya, ISIS, and the Chilcot findings—Ledwidge shows how lessons continue to go unlearned. “A brave and important book; essential reading for anyone wanting insights into the dysfunction within the British military today, and the consequences this has on the lives of innocent civilians caught up in war.”—Times Literary Supplement
The Northern Ireland Conflict
Author: John McGarry
Publisher: OUP Oxford
ISBN: 0191532878
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 448
Book Description
This book collects some of the major essays, past and new, of two of the leading authorities on the Northern Ireland conflict. It is unified by the theory of consociation, one of the most influential theories in the regulation of conflicts. The authors are critical exponents of the approach, and several chapters explain its attractions over alternative forms of conflict regulation. The book explains why Northern Ireland's national divisions have made the achievement of a consociational agreement particularly difficult. The issues raised in the book are crucial to a proper understanding of Northern Ireland's past and future, which, the authors argue, is likely to involve some type of consociational democracy, whether or not the one agreed to on Good Friday ..... The issues addressed are not particular to Northern Ireland. They are relevant to a host of other divided territories, including Cyprus, Kosovo, Macedonia, Sri Lanka, Nigeria, and Afghanistan. The book is therefore vital reading not just for Northern Ireland specialists, but also for anyone interested in consociation and in the just and durable regulation of national and ethnic conflict.
Publisher: OUP Oxford
ISBN: 0191532878
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 448
Book Description
This book collects some of the major essays, past and new, of two of the leading authorities on the Northern Ireland conflict. It is unified by the theory of consociation, one of the most influential theories in the regulation of conflicts. The authors are critical exponents of the approach, and several chapters explain its attractions over alternative forms of conflict regulation. The book explains why Northern Ireland's national divisions have made the achievement of a consociational agreement particularly difficult. The issues raised in the book are crucial to a proper understanding of Northern Ireland's past and future, which, the authors argue, is likely to involve some type of consociational democracy, whether or not the one agreed to on Good Friday ..... The issues addressed are not particular to Northern Ireland. They are relevant to a host of other divided territories, including Cyprus, Kosovo, Macedonia, Sri Lanka, Nigeria, and Afghanistan. The book is therefore vital reading not just for Northern Ireland specialists, but also for anyone interested in consociation and in the just and durable regulation of national and ethnic conflict.
Operations in Afghanistan
Author: Great Britain: Parliament: House of Commons: Defence Committee
Publisher: The Stationery Office
ISBN: 9780215560599
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 288
Book Description
This report looks at operations in Afghanistan since 2006 and makes further recommendations for the anticipated draw-down of forces. UK Forces were deployed in Helmand Province in Afghanistan for three years from 2006 without the necessary personnel, equipment or intelligence to succeed in their mission. Mistakes were made as a result of a failure in military and political coordination. The decision to move UK Armed Forces into the South of Afghanistan in early 2006 was not fully thought through. The Committee is concerned that the MoD did not anticipate that the presence of the Armed Forces in Helmand might stir up a hornets' nest, especially as much of the intelligence was contradictory. Senior military advisers should have drawn attention to the need for force levels to be sufficiently robust to cope with an unpredictable conflict. The Committee is disturbed that the Secretary of State was told that commanders on the ground were content with the support they were being given in Helmand when clearly they were not. After only a matter of months in Helmand, the nature of the UK Mission changed, with serious strategic implications. The MoD did not respond quickly enough to changes in Taliban tactics. The MoD should prioritise the protection of personnel. The Government's room for manoeuvre regarding the number of troops that could be withdrawn from Afghanistan as part of an immediate transition is necessarily limited. More emphasis needs to be placed on capacity building within the political system if long-term success is to be achieved.
Publisher: The Stationery Office
ISBN: 9780215560599
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 288
Book Description
This report looks at operations in Afghanistan since 2006 and makes further recommendations for the anticipated draw-down of forces. UK Forces were deployed in Helmand Province in Afghanistan for three years from 2006 without the necessary personnel, equipment or intelligence to succeed in their mission. Mistakes were made as a result of a failure in military and political coordination. The decision to move UK Armed Forces into the South of Afghanistan in early 2006 was not fully thought through. The Committee is concerned that the MoD did not anticipate that the presence of the Armed Forces in Helmand might stir up a hornets' nest, especially as much of the intelligence was contradictory. Senior military advisers should have drawn attention to the need for force levels to be sufficiently robust to cope with an unpredictable conflict. The Committee is disturbed that the Secretary of State was told that commanders on the ground were content with the support they were being given in Helmand when clearly they were not. After only a matter of months in Helmand, the nature of the UK Mission changed, with serious strategic implications. The MoD did not respond quickly enough to changes in Taliban tactics. The MoD should prioritise the protection of personnel. The Government's room for manoeuvre regarding the number of troops that could be withdrawn from Afghanistan as part of an immediate transition is necessarily limited. More emphasis needs to be placed on capacity building within the political system if long-term success is to be achieved.
The Fiscal Cost of Conflict: Evidence from Afghanistan 2005-2016
Author: Philip Barrett
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484376692
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 79
Book Description
I use a monthly panel of provincially-collected central government revenues and conflict fatalities to estimate government revenues lost due to conflict in Afghanistan since 2005. I identify causal effects by instrumenting for conflict using pre-sample ethno-linguistic share. Headline estimates are very large, implying total revenue losses since 2005 of $3bn, and future revenue gains from peace of about 6 percent of GDP per year. Reduced collection efficiency, rather than lower economic activity, appears to be the key channel. OLS estimates understate the causal effect by a factor of four. Comparing to estimates from Powell’s (2017) generalized synthetic control method suggests that this bias results from omitted variables and measurement error in equal share. The findings underscore the considerable economic loss due to conflict, and the importance of careful identification in measuring this loss.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484376692
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 79
Book Description
I use a monthly panel of provincially-collected central government revenues and conflict fatalities to estimate government revenues lost due to conflict in Afghanistan since 2005. I identify causal effects by instrumenting for conflict using pre-sample ethno-linguistic share. Headline estimates are very large, implying total revenue losses since 2005 of $3bn, and future revenue gains from peace of about 6 percent of GDP per year. Reduced collection efficiency, rather than lower economic activity, appears to be the key channel. OLS estimates understate the causal effect by a factor of four. Comparing to estimates from Powell’s (2017) generalized synthetic control method suggests that this bias results from omitted variables and measurement error in equal share. The findings underscore the considerable economic loss due to conflict, and the importance of careful identification in measuring this loss.