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Author: Mr.Francesco Caramazza
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451931336
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 28
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Book Description
This paper explores the determinants of expected rates of realignment of the French franc/Deutsche mark exchange rate during the period 1987-1991. It does so by first estimating expected parity changes and then relating these to economic variables that are believed to influence agents’ realignment expectations. Time-varying expected rates of realignment are estimated in two ways: one, by adjusting short-term euromarket interest rate differentials for the expected rate of change of the FF/DM exchange rate within the EMS fluctuation band and two, by the differential in the yield on long-term government bonds. The behavior of the exchange rate within the band is found to be consistent with mean reversion and the expected change is nontrivial. Thus, by filtering out the expected mean reversion within the band from short-term interest rate differentials more precise measures of expected changes in the central parity are obtained. Realignment expectations are found to be closely related to the evolution of fundamental economic variables and, for shorter horizons, the position of the franc in the fluctuation band.
Author: Mr.Francesco Caramazza
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451931336
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 28
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Book Description
This paper explores the determinants of expected rates of realignment of the French franc/Deutsche mark exchange rate during the period 1987-1991. It does so by first estimating expected parity changes and then relating these to economic variables that are believed to influence agents’ realignment expectations. Time-varying expected rates of realignment are estimated in two ways: one, by adjusting short-term euromarket interest rate differentials for the expected rate of change of the FF/DM exchange rate within the EMS fluctuation band and two, by the differential in the yield on long-term government bonds. The behavior of the exchange rate within the band is found to be consistent with mean reversion and the expected change is nontrivial. Thus, by filtering out the expected mean reversion within the band from short-term interest rate differentials more precise measures of expected changes in the central parity are obtained. Realignment expectations are found to be closely related to the evolution of fundamental economic variables and, for shorter horizons, the position of the franc in the fluctuation band.
Author: Francesco Caramazza
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Currency question
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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Book Description
Author: Francesco Caramazza
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 28
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Book Description
This paper explores the determinants of expected rates of realignment of the French franc/Deutsche mark exchange rate during the period 1987-1991. It does so by first estimating expected parity changes and then relating these to economic variables that are believed to influence agents` realignment expectations. Time-varying expected rates of realignment are estimated in two ways: one, by adjusting short-term euromarket interest rate differentials for the expected rate of change of the FF/DM exchange rate within the EMS fluctuation band and two, by the differential in the yield on long-term government bonds. The behavior of the exchange rate within the band is found to be consistent with mean reversion and the expected change is nontrivial. Thus, by filtering out the expected mean reversion within the band from short-term interest rate differentials more precise measures of expected changes in the central parity are obtained. Realignment expectations are found to be closely related to the evolution of fundamental economic variables and, for shorter horizons, the position of the franc in the fluctuation band.
Author: Jérôme Henry
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : EMS
Languages : en
Pages : 48
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Book Description
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 145197325X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 236
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Book Description
This paper assesses alternative auction techniques for pricing and allocating various financial instruments, such as government securities, central bank refinance credit, and foreign exchange. Before recommending appropriate formats for auctioning these items, the paper discusses basic auction formats, assessing the advantages and disadvantages of each, based on the existing, mostly theoretical, literature. It is noted that auction techniques can be usefully employed for a broad range of items and that their application is of particular relevance to the impetus in many parts of the world toward establishing market-oriented economies.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451973446
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 188
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Book Description
This paper examines the volatility and predictability of emerging stock markets. A range of measures suggests that, despite perceptions to the contrary, the volatility of emerging markets may have fallen rather than risen on average. Also, although the autocorrelations in emerging market returns appear to turn negative at horizons of a year or more, the magnitude of these return reversals is not that much larger than reversals in some mature markets. One interpretation of the results would be that emerging markets have not consistently been subject to fads or bubbles, or at least no more so than in some industrial countries.
Author: Fredj Jawadi
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN: 0857244906
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 224
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Book Description
Presents researches in linear and nonlinear modelling of economic and financial time-series. This book provides a comprehensive understanding of financial and economic dynamics in various aspects using modern financial econometric methods. It also presents and discusses research findings and their implications.
Author: Mr.Peter Isard
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451922043
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 32
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Book Description
The paper models an adjustable peg exchange rate arrangement as a policy rule with an escape clause under which the timing and magnitudes of realignments are the outcomes of policy optimization decisions. Under the assumptions that market participants are rational, risk averse, and fully informed about the incentives of policymakers, the analysis focuses on the implications for relating realignment expectations to the state variables that enter the policy objective function, for modeling the bias in using forward exchange rates to predict future spot rates, and for characterizing the effectiveness of sterilized intervention.
Author: Klaas Knot
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN: 9781781959657
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 232
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Book Description
This is an extensive study concerned with the potential effects of fiscal policy on financial markets in the EU. It takes into account the gradual liberalization of capital movements through Western Europe & the framework of the European Monetary System.
Author: Maria Soledad Martinez Peria
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : EMS
Languages : en
Pages : 60
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Book Description
