FOUR METHODS FOR ASSESSING MULTI-ATTRIBUTE UTILITIES: AN EXPERIMENTAL VALIDATION. PDF Download
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Author: GREGORY WARREN FISCHER
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 97
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Book Description
In choosing between alternatives characterized by multiple value relevant attributes, decision makers must typically trade off one attribute against another. The first section of the paper discusses the theoretical basis for multi-attribute value assessment and concludes that while additive evaluation models should be appropriate for most riskless decisions, non-additive models will frequently be required for decision making under uncertainty. The second section discusses the sensitivity of evaluation models to assessment errors. The third section describes four procedures for constructing a decomposed evaluation model. The fourth section treats the general problem of validating evaluation procedures. And the final two sections discuss two experiments which demonstrated that all four of the decomposition procedures described can provide an appropriate measure of subjective value. (Author).
Author: GREGORY WARREN FISCHER
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 97
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Book Description
In choosing between alternatives characterized by multiple value relevant attributes, decision makers must typically trade off one attribute against another. The first section of the paper discusses the theoretical basis for multi-attribute value assessment and concludes that while additive evaluation models should be appropriate for most riskless decisions, non-additive models will frequently be required for decision making under uncertainty. The second section discusses the sensitivity of evaluation models to assessment errors. The third section describes four procedures for constructing a decomposed evaluation model. The fourth section treats the general problem of validating evaluation procedures. And the final two sections discuss two experiments which demonstrated that all four of the decomposition procedures described can provide an appropriate measure of subjective value. (Author).
Author: D. Wendt
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9401018340
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 408
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Book Description
Human decision making involves problems which are being studied with increasing interest and sophistication. They range from controversial political decisions via individual consumer decisions to such simple tasks as signal discriminations. Although it would seem that decisions have to do with choices among available actions of any kind, there is general agreement that decision making research should pertain to choice prob lems which cannot be solved without a predecisional stage of finding choice alternatives, weighing evidence, and judging values. The ultimate objective of scientific research on decision making is two-fold: (a) to develop a theoretically sound technology for the optimal solution of decision problems, and (b) to formulate a descriptive theory of human decision making. The latter may, in tum, protect decision makers from being caught in the traps of their own limitations and biases. Recently, in decision making research the strong emphasis on well defined laboratory tasks is decreasing in favour of more realistic studies in various practical settings. This may well have been caused by a growing awareness of the fact that decision-behaviour is strongly determined by situational factors, which makes it necessary to look into processes of interaction between the decision maker and the relevant task environ ment. Almost inevitably there is a parallel shift of interest towards problems of utility measurement and the evaluation of consequences.
Author: Ralph L. Keeney
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521438834
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 596
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Book Description
This book describes how a confused decision maker, who wishes to make a reasonable and responsible choice among alternatives, can systematically probe their thoughts and feelings in order to make the critically important trade-offs between incommensurable objectives.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Military research
Languages : en
Pages : 486
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Book Description
Author: University of Michigan. Board of Regents
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 1646
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Book Description
Author: M. Zeleny
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642454860
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 368
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Book Description
This collection of articles aspires to be a permanent record of ideas which are likely to become important determinants in the future of management sciences. These papers were initially presented at the first session on Multiple Criteria Decision Making QMCDM) organized under the auspices of The Institute of Management Sciences (TIMS). All works were prepared by leading spokesmen for three generations of OR/MS change agents. Special mention must be made of the dynamic role which Professor Martin K. Starr played in organizing the program of the TIMS XXII International Meeting. In May, 1973, Professor Starr, who was President of TIMS and Program Chairman of the Kyoto conference, requested me to chair the MCDM session. Throughout the long period of formative inter change, Dr. Starr demonstrated his full and continuing support of both the event and the MCDM field. On July 25, 1975, surrounded by the rocky gardens of the Kyoto International Conference Hall (KICH), located on the shore of Takaraga Ike, we engaged in a day-long discussion of MCDM. Our "talk together in Kyoto" was a professional experience of the highest intensity for participants, speakers and audience alike.
Author: David A. Klein
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 113476846X
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 228
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Book Description
This book presents a framework for building intelligent systems based on the mathematical decision models of Decision Analysis. The author provides new techniques for automated explanation and knowledge acquisition in formally sound systems that reason about complex tradeoffs in decisions. Also included are specifications for implementing these techniques in computer programs, along with demonstration applications in marketing, process control, and medicine. Readers with an interest in artificial intelligence will gain a foundation for building formally justifiable, intelligible, modifiable systems for computing decisions involving multiple considerations, with applications across a variety of domains. Beyond decision models, the methodology of the work reported suggests a more general approach to employing formal mathematical models in transparent intelligent systems. Decision-analysis experts will find a collection of methods for explaining decision-analytic advice to clients in intuitive terms, for simplifying parameter assessment, and for managing changing preferences over time. The book provides sufficient background material to promote understanding by readers who may be unfamiliar with artificial intelligence, with decision analysis, or with both fields, and such material is labeled to increase the well-versed reader's efficiency in skipping particular sections.
Author: Martin Irle
Publisher: Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG
ISBN: 311086696X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 936
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Book Description
No detailed description available for "Studies in Decision Making".
Author: H. Jungermann
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9401012768
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 525
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Book Description
It is only just recently that people have the tools to judge how well they are doing when making decisions. These tools were conceptualized in the seventeenth century. Since then many people have worked to sharpen the concepts, and to explore how these can be applied further. The problems of decision-making and the theory developed correspondingly have drawn the interest of mathematicians, psychologists, statisticians, economists, philosophers, organizational experts, sociologists, not only for their general relevance, but also for a more intrinsic fascination. There are quite a few institutionalized activities to disseminate results and stimulate research in decision-making. For about a decade now a European organizational structure, centered mainly around the psy chological interest in decision-making. There have been conferences in Hamburg, Amsterdam, Uxbridge, Rome and Darmstadt. Conference papers have been partly published+. The organization has thus stabilized, and its re latively long history makes it interesting to see what kind of developments occurred, within the area of interest.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 208
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Book Description
