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Author: Marjolein van Asselt
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1136536973
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 194
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Book Description
Assessing the future is vital in informing public policy decisions. One of the most widespread approaches is the development of scenarios, which are alternative hypothetical futures. Research has indicated, however, that the reality of how professionals go about employing scenarios is often starkly at odds with the theory - a finding that has important ramifications for how the resulting images of the future should be interpreted. It also shows the need for rewriting and updating theory. This book, based on an intensive five year study of how experts actually go about assessing the future, provides a groundbreaking examination of foresighting in action. Obtained via ethnographic techniques, the results lay bare for the first time the real processes by which scenarios are made. It is also the first book to examine foresighting for public policy, which is so often overlooked in favour of business practice. From handling of discontinuity to historical determinism, the analysis reveals and explains why foresight is difficult and what the major pitfalls are. Each chapter ends with a toolkit of recommendations for practice. The book aims to help readers to reflect on their own practices of public-oriented foresight and thus to foster a deeper understanding of the key principles and challenges. Ultimately, this will lead to better informed decision making.
Author: Marjolein van Asselt
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1136536973
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 194
Get Book Here
Book Description
Assessing the future is vital in informing public policy decisions. One of the most widespread approaches is the development of scenarios, which are alternative hypothetical futures. Research has indicated, however, that the reality of how professionals go about employing scenarios is often starkly at odds with the theory - a finding that has important ramifications for how the resulting images of the future should be interpreted. It also shows the need for rewriting and updating theory. This book, based on an intensive five year study of how experts actually go about assessing the future, provides a groundbreaking examination of foresighting in action. Obtained via ethnographic techniques, the results lay bare for the first time the real processes by which scenarios are made. It is also the first book to examine foresighting for public policy, which is so often overlooked in favour of business practice. From handling of discontinuity to historical determinism, the analysis reveals and explains why foresight is difficult and what the major pitfalls are. Each chapter ends with a toolkit of recommendations for practice. The book aims to help readers to reflect on their own practices of public-oriented foresight and thus to foster a deeper understanding of the key principles and challenges. Ultimately, this will lead to better informed decision making.
Author: Liam Fahey
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 9780471303527
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 478
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Book Description
Unter Szenarioplanung versteht man eine spezielle Methode der Vorhersage zukünftiger politischer, ökonomischer und demographischer Entwicklungen, die das Funktionieren eines Unternehmens beeinflussen können. Diese Technik wird hier von renommierten Vorreitern auf diesem Gebiet ausführlich beleuchtet - so lernt der Manager, verschiedene Implikationen plausibler Ereignisse und Einflüsse systematisch zu durchdenken. (11/97)
Author: Hines Andy
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780996773409
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 448
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Book Description
Thinking about the Future distills the expertise of three dozen senior foresight professionals into a set of essential guidelines for carrying out successful strategic foresight. Presented in a highly scannable yet personable style, each guideline includes an explanation and rationale, key steps, a case example, and resources for further study.
Author: Daniel Burrus
Publisher: Harper Collins
ISBN: 0062036556
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 308
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Book Description
Flash Foresight offers seven radical principles you need to transform your business today. From internationally renowned technology forecaster Daniel Burrus—a leading consultant to Google, Proctor & Gamble, IBM, and many other Fortune 500 firms—with John David Mann, co-author of the Wall Street Journal bestseller The Go-Giver, comes this systematic, easy-to-implement method for identifying new business opportunities and solving difficult problems in the twenty-first century marketplace.
Author: Eilidh Kennedy
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 100046704X
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 119
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Book Description
This book provides humanitarian practitioners and policy makers with a manual for how to apply foresight and strategy in their work. Drawing on extensive research, the book demonstrates in practical terms how embedding futures-focused thinking into practice can help humanitarian actors to enhance their impact and fit for the future. The book provides readers with a step-by-step guide to an innovative combination of tools and methods tested and refined over the course of several years. However, it also goes beyond this, by grounding the approach within the broader ambition of making humanitarian action more effective. Overall, the analytical and strategic processes outlined in this book will accompany a decision maker through every stage of creating a robust, agile and impactful long-term strategy. This accessible guide will be an essential point of reference for practitioners and decision makers in the humanitarian ecosystem, as well as students studying humanitarian affairs, global development, conflict studies and international relations.
Author: Vladimír Šucha
Publisher:
ISBN: 0128226900
Category : Electronic books
Languages : en
Pages : 290
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Book Description
Author: Richard A. K. Lum
Publisher: FutureScribe
ISBN: 9780997278309
Category : Forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 88
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Book Description
This practical guide offers a straight forward and step-by-step approach to developing foresight for organizations of all types. Providing a simple model that can be expanded and adapted as needed, this book introduces the fundamentals of good futures thinking in a four step process complete with ready-to-use worksheets, clear process steps, and checklists for good daily habits and critical assessments.
Author: Kristian Borch
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN: 1781956146
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 353
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Book Description
ÔThe ten national foresight case studies presented, covering a wide-ranging set of themes (research, science and technology, education and training and the environment) and countries, help to underline the practical aspects of using dialogue and participation effectively in foresight exercises. The book is particularly useful in defining the concept of dialogue, debate, interaction and participation and in outlining a range of uses in different foresight contexts. This book constitutes an important contribution to the futures field and will prove an inspiration to those embarking on foresight exercises and similar open, participatory forward-looking processes.Õ Ð Jennifer Cassingena Harper, Malta Council for Science and Technology This illuminating book combines theory and practice to analyse the experiences and impacts of foresight activities in various European countries. It includes case studies with a focus on different societal issues including national development, science and technology, and sustainable development. The contributors expertly describe and analyse foresight projects carried out in countries at various stages of economic development including mature market economies, transition economies and young democracies. The theoretical chapters on stakeholder participation, negotiation and dialogue, learning, and visioning are useful in the planning and analyses of foresight activities. The case study chapters explicitly demonstrate how the societal context can influence the planning and impact of foresight policy. Scholars of foresight and technology assessment will find plenty of information in this invaluable book. It will also prove essential for Masters courses on foresight or future studies, and public policy courses with a focus on future policy and planning.
Author: Nick Marsh
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781740950046
Category : Economic forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 299
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Book Description
Nick Marsh presents a set of practical techniques and approaches called Strategic Foresight - proven methods for managing a foresight process within any organisation to produce a dynamic, value-adding strategy and results.
Author: Maria Giaoutzi
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461452155
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 314
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Book Description
Foresight is an area within Futures Studies that focuses on critical thinking concerning long term developments, whether within the public sector or in industry and management, and is something of a sub-section of complexity and network science. This book examines developments in foresight methodologies and relates in its greater part to the work done in the context of the COSTA22 network of the EU on Foresight Methodologies. Foresight is a professional practice that supports significant decisions, and as such it needs to be more assured of its claims to knowledge (methodology). Foresight is practiced across many domains and is not the preserve of specialized ‘futurists’, or indeed of foresight specialists. However, the disciplines of foresight are not well articulated or disseminated across domains, leading to re-inventions and practice that does not make best use of experience in other domains. The methodological development of foresight is an important task that aims at strengthening the pool of the tools available for application, thereby empowering the actors involved in foresight practice. Elaborating further on methodological issues, such as those presented in the present book, enables the actors involved in foresight to begin to critique current practice from this perspective and, thirdly, to begin to design foresight practice. The present trends towards methodological concerns indicates a move from ‘given’ expert-predicted futures to one in which futures are nurtured through a dialogue among “stakeholders.” The book has four parts, each elaborating on a set of aspects of foresight methodologies. After an introductory section, Part II considers theorizing about foresight methodologies. Part III covers system content issues, and Part IV presents foresight tools and approaches.
