Author: Kostas I. Nikolopoulos
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119320763
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 198
Get Book Here
Book Description
The first book to be published on the Theta method, outlining under what conditions the method outperforms other forecasting methods This book is the first to detail the Theta method of forecasting – one of the most difficult-to-beat forecasting benchmarks, which topped the biggest forecasting competition in the world in 2000: the M3 competition. Written by two of the leading experts in the forecasting field, it illuminates the exact replication of the method and under what conditions the method outperforms other forecasting methods. Recent developments such as multivariate models are also included, as are a series of practical applications in finance, economics, and healthcare. The book also offers practical tools in MS Excel and guidance, as well as provisional access, for the use of R source code and respective packages. Forecasting with the Theta Method: Theory and Applications includes three main parts. The first part, titled Theory, Methods, Models & Applications details the new theory about the method. The second part, Applications & Performance in Forecasting Competitions, describes empirical results and simulations on the method. The last part roadmaps future research and also include contributions from another leading scholar of the method – Dr. Fotios Petropoulos. First ever book to be published on the Theta Method Explores new theory and exact conditions under which methods would outperform most forecasting benchmarks Clearly written with practical applications Employs R – open source code with all included implementations Forecasting with the Theta Method: Theory and Applications is a valuable tool for both academics and practitioners involved in forecasting and respective software development.
Author: Bonan Wang
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: Rob J Hyndman
Publisher: OTexts
ISBN: 0987507117
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 380
Get Book Here
Book Description
Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
Author: Jörg Grüner
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 5
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: Manu Joseph
Publisher: Packt Publishing Ltd
ISBN: 1803232048
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 552
Get Book Here
Book Description
Build real-world time series forecasting systems which scale to millions of time series by applying modern machine learning and deep learning concepts Key Features Explore industry-tested machine learning techniques used to forecast millions of time series Get started with the revolutionary paradigm of global forecasting models Get to grips with new concepts by applying them to real-world datasets of energy forecasting Book DescriptionWe live in a serendipitous era where the explosion in the quantum of data collected and a renewed interest in data-driven techniques such as machine learning (ML), has changed the landscape of analytics, and with it, time series forecasting. This book, filled with industry-tested tips and tricks, takes you beyond commonly used classical statistical methods such as ARIMA and introduces to you the latest techniques from the world of ML. This is a comprehensive guide to analyzing, visualizing, and creating state-of-the-art forecasting systems, complete with common topics such as ML and deep learning (DL) as well as rarely touched-upon topics such as global forecasting models, cross-validation strategies, and forecast metrics. You’ll begin by exploring the basics of data handling, data visualization, and classical statistical methods before moving on to ML and DL models for time series forecasting. This book takes you on a hands-on journey in which you’ll develop state-of-the-art ML (linear regression to gradient-boosted trees) and DL (feed-forward neural networks, LSTMs, and transformers) models on a real-world dataset along with exploring practical topics such as interpretability. By the end of this book, you’ll be able to build world-class time series forecasting systems and tackle problems in the real world.What you will learn Find out how to manipulate and visualize time series data like a pro Set strong baselines with popular models such as ARIMA Discover how time series forecasting can be cast as regression Engineer features for machine learning models for forecasting Explore the exciting world of ensembling and stacking models Get to grips with the global forecasting paradigm Understand and apply state-of-the-art DL models such as N-BEATS and Autoformer Explore multi-step forecasting and cross-validation strategies Who this book is for The book is for data scientists, data analysts, machine learning engineers, and Python developers who want to build industry-ready time series models. Since the book explains most concepts from the ground up, basic proficiency in Python is all you need. Prior understanding of machine learning or forecasting will help speed up your learning. For experienced machine learning and forecasting practitioners, this book has a lot to offer in terms of advanced techniques and traversing the latest research frontiers in time series forecasting.
Author: Ton Viet Ta
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 86
Get Book Here
Book Description
https: //www.dinhxa.com One-Week Free Trial (subject to change) Do you want to earn up to a 110795565% annual return on your money by two trades per day on THETA USD THETA-USD Stock? Reading this book is the only way to have a specific strategy. This book offers you a chance to trade THETA-USD Stock at predicted prices. Eight methods for buying and selling THETA-USD Stock at predicted low/high prices are introduced. These prices are very close to the lowest and highest prices of the stock in a day. All methods are explained in a very easy-to-understand way by using many examples, formulas, figures, and tables. The BIG DATA of the 1136 consecutive trading days (from January 17, 2018 to March 5, 2021) are utilized. The methods do not require any background on mathematics from readers. Furthermore, they are easy to use. Each takes you no more than 30 seconds for calculation to obtain a specific predicted price. The methods are not transient. They cannot be beaten by Mr. Market in several years, even until the stock doubles its current age. They are traits of Mr. Market. The reason is that the author uses the law of large numbers in the probability theory to construct them. In other words, you can use the methods in a long time without worrying about their change. The efficiency of the methods can be checked easily. Just compare the predicted prices with the actual price of the stock while referring to the probabilities of success which are shown clearly in the book (click the LOOK INSIDE button to read more information before buying this book). The book is very useful for Investors who have decided to buy the stock and keep it for a long time (as the strategy of Warren Buffett), or to sell the stock and pay attention to other stocks. The methods will help them to maximize profits for their decision. Day traders who buy and sell the stock many times in a day. Although each method is valid one time per day, the information from the methods will help the traders buy/sell the stock in the second time, third time or more in a day. Beginners to THETA-USD Stock. The book gives an insight about the behavior of the stock. They will surely gain their knowledge of THETA-USD Stock after reading the book. Everyone who wants to know about the U.S. stock market. https: //www.dinhxa.com includes a software (app) for stock price forecasting using the methods in this book. The software gives 114 predictions while this book gives 16. One-Week Free Trial (subject to change)
Author: John E. Boylan
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119135303
Category : Medical
Languages : en
Pages : 403
Get Book Here
Book Description
INTERMITTENT DEMAND FORECASTING The first text to focus on the methods and approaches of intermittent, rather than fast, demand forecasting Intermittent Demand Forecasting is for anyone who is interested in improving forecasts of intermittent demand products, and enhancing the management of inventories. Whether you are a practitioner, at the sharp end of demand planning, a software designer, a student, an academic teaching operational research or operations management courses, or a researcher in this field, we hope that the book will inspire you to rethink demand forecasting. If you do so, then you can contribute towards significant economic and environmental benefits. No prior knowledge of intermittent demand forecasting or inventory management is assumed in this book. The key formulae are accompanied by worked examples to show how they can be implemented in practice. For those wishing to understand the theory in more depth, technical notes are provided at the end of each chapter, as well as an extensive and up-to-date collection of references for further study. Software developments are reviewed, to give an appreciation of the current state of the art in commercial and open source software. “Intermittent demand forecasting may seem like a specialized area but actually is at the center of sustainability efforts to consume less and to waste less. Boylan and Syntetos have done a superb job in showing how improvements in inventory management are pivotal in achieving this. Their book covers both the theory and practice of intermittent demand forecasting and my prediction is that it will fast become the bible of the field.” —Spyros Makridakis, Professor, University of Nicosia, and Director, Institute for the Future and the Makridakis Open Forecasting Center (MOFC). “We have been able to support our clients by adopting many of the ideas discussed in this excellent book, and implementing them in our software. I am sure that these ideas will be equally helpful for other supply chain software vendors and for companies wanting to update and upgrade their capabilities in forecasting and inventory management.” —Suresh Acharya, VP, Research and Development, Blue Yonder. “As product variants proliferate and the pace of business quickens, more and more items have intermittent demand. Boylan and Syntetos have long been leaders in extending forecasting and inventory methods to accommodate this new reality. Their book gathers and clarifies decades of research in this area, and explains how practitioners can exploit this knowledge to make their operations more efficient and effective.” —Thomas R. Willemain, Professor Emeritus, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute.
Author: Gary Lee
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642256465
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 646
Get Book Here
Book Description
The international conference on Automation and Robotics-ICAR2011 is held during December 12-13, 2011 in Dubai, UAE. The proceedings of ICAR2011 have been published by Springer Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering, which include 163 excellent papers selected from more than 400 submitted papers. The conference is intended to bring together the researchers and engineers/technologists working in different aspects of intelligent control systems and optimization, robotics and automation, signal processing, sensors, systems modeling and control, industrial engineering, production and management. This part of proceedings includes 82 papers contributed by many researchers in relevant topic areas covered at ICAR2011 from various countries such as France, Japan, USA, Korea and China etc. The session topic of this proceeding is signal processing and industrial engineering, production and management, which includes papers about signal reconstruction, mechanical sensors, real-time systems control system identification, change detection problems, business process modeling, production planning, scheduling and control, computer-based manufacturing technologies, systems modeling and simulation, facilities planning and management, quality control and management, precision engineering, intelligent design and manufacturing. The papers in this proceedings focus on industry engineering to promote efficiency and affect for the world, which typically showed their advanced research work recently in their various field. I am sure that discussing with many colleagues will give much more creative idea for each other on ICAR2011. All of papers with powerful evidence and detail demonstration involved the authors’ numerous time and energy will be proved valuable by their unexhausted exploring sprit. Sincere thanks to the committee and all the authors, in additionally, including anonymous reviewers from many fields and organizations. They pointed out us direction to go on research work for the world.
Author: Nigel D. Lewis
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781548839017
Category : Data mining
Languages : en
Pages : 240
Get Book Here
Book Description
Finally, A Blueprint for Automated Time Series Forecasting with R! Automated Time Series Forecasting Made Easy with R offers a practical tutorial that uses hands-on examples to step through real-world applications using clear and practical case studies. Through this process it takes you on a gentle, fun and unhurried journey to creating your own models to forecast time series data. Whether you are new to time series forecasting or a veteran, this book offers a powerful set of tools for quickly and easily gaining insight from your data using R. NO EXPERIENCE REQUIRED: Through a simple to follow step by step process you will learn how to build time series forecasting models using R. Once you have mastered the process, it will be easy for you to translate your knowledge into your own powerful applications. YOUR PERSONAL BLUE PRINT: Through a simple to follow intuitive step by step process, you will learn how to use the most popular time series forecasting models using R. Once you have mastered the process, it will be easy for you to translate your knowledge to assess your own data. THIS BOOK IS FOR YOU IF YOU WANT: Focus on explanations rather than mathematical derivation Practical illustrations that use real data. Illustrations to deepen your understanding. Worked examples in R you can easily follow and immediately implement. Ideas you can actually use and try on your own data. TAKE THE SHORTCUT: This guide was written for people who want to get up to speed as quickly as possible. YOU'LL LEARN HOW TO: Unleash the power the Prophet forecasting algorithm. Master the award winning Theta method. Use the component form exponential smoothing framework. Design successful applications using classical ARIMA modeling. Adapt the flexible BATS and TBATS framework for optimum success. Deploy the multiple aggregation prediction algorithm. Explore the potential of simple moving averages. For each time series forecasting technique, every step in the process is detailed, from preparing the data for analysis to evaluating the results. These steps will build the knowledge you need to apply them to your own data science tasks. Using plain language, this book offers a simple, intuitive, practical, non-mathematical, easy to follow guide to the most successful ideas, outstanding techniques and usable solutions available using R. Everything you need to get started is contained within this book. Automated Time Series Forecasting Made Easy with R is your very own hands on practical, tactical, easy to follow guide to mastery. Buy this book today and accelerate your progress!
Author: John C. Brocklebank, Ph.D.
Publisher: SAS Institute
ISBN: 1629605441
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 384
Get Book Here
Book Description
To use statistical methods and SAS applications to forecast the future values of data taken over time, you need only follow this thoroughly updated classic on the subject. With this third edition of SAS for Forecasting Time Series, intermediate-to-advanced SAS users—such as statisticians, economists, and data scientists—can now match the most sophisticated forecasting methods to the most current SAS applications. Starting with fundamentals, this new edition presents methods for modeling both univariate and multivariate data taken over time. From the well-known ARIMA models to unobserved components, methods that span the range from simple to complex are discussed and illustrated. Many of the newer methods are variations on the basic ARIMA structures. Completely updated, this new edition includes fresh, interesting business situations and data sets, and new sections on these up-to-date statistical methods: ARIMA models Vector autoregressive models Exponential smoothing models Unobserved component and state-space models Seasonal adjustment Spectral analysis Focusing on application, this guide teaches a wide range of forecasting techniques by example. The examples provide the statistical underpinnings necessary to put the methods into practice. The following up-to-date SAS applications are covered in this edition: The ARIMA procedure The AUTOREG procedure The VARMAX procedure The ESM procedure The UCM and SSM procedures The X13 procedure The SPECTRA procedure SAS Forecast Studio Each SAS application is presented with explanation of its strengths, weaknesses, and best uses. Even users of automated forecasting systems will benefit from this knowledge of what is done and why. Moreover, the accompanying examples can serve as templates that you easily adjust to fit your specific forecasting needs. This book is part of the SAS Press program.
