Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries PDF full book. Access full book title Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries by E. Tabeau. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: E. Tabeau
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 0792368339
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 320
Get Book Here
Book Description
Information on future mortality trends is essential for population forecasts, public health policy, actuarial studies, and many other purposes. Realising the importance of such needs, this volume contains contributions to the theory and practice of forecasting mortality in the relatively favourable circumstances in developed countries of Western Europe. In this context techniques from mathematical statistics and econometrics can provide useful descriptions of past mortality. The naive forecast obtained by extrapolating a fitted model may give as good a forecast as any but forecasting by extrapolation requires careful justification since it assumes the prolongation of historical conditions. On the other hand, whilst it is generally accepted that scientific and other advances will continue to impact on mortality, perhaps dramatically so, it is impossible to quantify more than the outline of future consequences with a strong degree of confidence. The decision to modify an extrapolation of a model fitted to historical data (or conversely choosing not to modify it) in order to obtain a forecast is therefore strongly influenced by subjective and judgmental elements, with the quality of the latter dependent on demographic, epidemiological and indeed perhaps more general considerations. The thread running through the book reflects therefore the necessity of integrating demographic, epidemiological, and statistical factors to obtain an improvement in the prediction of mortality.
Author: E. Tabeau
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 0792368339
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 320
Get Book Here
Book Description
Information on future mortality trends is essential for population forecasts, public health policy, actuarial studies, and many other purposes. Realising the importance of such needs, this volume contains contributions to the theory and practice of forecasting mortality in the relatively favourable circumstances in developed countries of Western Europe. In this context techniques from mathematical statistics and econometrics can provide useful descriptions of past mortality. The naive forecast obtained by extrapolating a fitted model may give as good a forecast as any but forecasting by extrapolation requires careful justification since it assumes the prolongation of historical conditions. On the other hand, whilst it is generally accepted that scientific and other advances will continue to impact on mortality, perhaps dramatically so, it is impossible to quantify more than the outline of future consequences with a strong degree of confidence. The decision to modify an extrapolation of a model fitted to historical data (or conversely choosing not to modify it) in order to obtain a forecast is therefore strongly influenced by subjective and judgmental elements, with the quality of the latter dependent on demographic, epidemiological and indeed perhaps more general considerations. The thread running through the book reflects therefore the necessity of integrating demographic, epidemiological, and statistical factors to obtain an improvement in the prediction of mortality.
Author: E. Tabeau
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 0306475626
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 320
Get Book Here
Book Description
Information on future mortality trends is essential for population forecasts, public health policy, actuarial studies, and many other purposes. Realising the importance of such needs, this volume contains contributions to the theory and practice of forecasting mortality in the relatively favourable circumstances in developed countries of Western Europe. In this context techniques from mathematical statistics and econometrics can provide useful descriptions of past mortality. The naive forecast obtained by extrapolating a fitted model may give as good a forecast as any but forecasting by extrapolation requires careful justification since it assumes the prolongation of historical conditions. On the other hand, whilst it is generally accepted that scientific and other advances will continue to impact on mortality, perhaps dramatically so, it is impossible to quantify more than the outline of future consequences with a strong degree of confidence. The decision to modify an extrapolation of a model fitted to historical data (or conversely choosing not to modify it) in order to obtain a forecast is therefore strongly influenced by subjective and judgmental elements, with the quality of the latter dependent on demographic, epidemiological and indeed perhaps more general considerations. The thread running through the book reflects therefore the necessity of integrating demographic, epidemiological, and statistical factors to obtain an improvement in the prediction of mortality.
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309069904
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 369
Get Book Here
Book Description
Is rapid world population growth actually coming to an end? As population growth and its consequences have become front-page issues, projections of slowing growth from such institutions as the United Nations and the World Bank have been called into question. Beyond Six Billion asks what such projections really say, why they say it, whether they can be trusted, and whether they can be improved. The book includes analysis of how well past U.N. and World Bank projections have panned out, what errors have occurred, and why they have happened. Focusing on fertility as one key to accurate projections, the committee examines the transition from high, constant fertility to low fertility levels and discusses whether developing countries will eventually attain the very low levels of births now observed in the industrialized world. Other keys to accurate projections, predictions of lengthening life span and of the impact of international migration on specific countries, are also explored in detail. How good are our methods of population forecasting? How can we cope with the inevitable uncertainty? What population trends can we anticipate? Beyond Six Billion illuminates not only the forces that shape population growth but also the accuracy of the methods we use to quantify these forces and the uncertainty surrounding projections. The Committee on Population was established by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1983 to bring the knowledge and methods of the population sciences to bear on major issues of science and public policy. The committee's work includes both basic studies of fertility, health and mortality, and migration; and applied studies aimed at improving programs for the public health and welfare in the United States and in developing countries. The committee also fosters communication among researchers in different disciplines and countries and policy makers in government, international agencies, and private organizations. The work of the committee is made possible by funding from several government agencies and private foundations.
Author: Tommy Bengtsson
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3030050750
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 341
Get Book Here
Book Description
This open access book describes methods of mortality forecasting and discusses possible improvements. It contains a selection of previously unpublished and published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-art overview of statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspectives. The different parts of the book provide discussions of current practice, probabilistic forecasting, the linearity in the increase of life expectancy, causes of death, and the role of cohort factors. The key question in the book is whether it is possible to project future mortality accurately, and if so, what is the best approach. This makes the book a valuable read to demographers, pension planners, actuaries, and all those interested and/or working in modelling and forecasting mortality.
Author: Stefano Mazzuco
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030424723
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 261
Get Book Here
Book Description
This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309048397
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 285
Get Book Here
Book Description
This book examines issues concerning how developing countries will have to prepare for demographic and epidemiologic change. Much of the current literature focuses on the prevalence of specific diseases and their economic consequences, but a need exists to consider the consequences of the epidemiological transition: the change in mortality patterns from infectious and parasitic diseases to chronic and degenerative ones. Among the topics covered are the association between the health of children and adults, the strong orientation of many international health organizations toward infant and child health, and how the public and private sectors will need to address and confront the large-scale shifts in disease and demographic characteristics of populations in developing countries.
Author: Germán Aneiros
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030477568
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 254
Get Book Here
Book Description
This book presents the latest research on the statistical analysis of functional, high-dimensional and other complex data, addressing methodological and computational aspects, as well as real-world applications. It covers topics like classification, confidence bands, density estimation, depth, diagnostic tests, dimension reduction, estimation on manifolds, high- and infinite-dimensional statistics, inference on functional data, networks, operatorial statistics, prediction, regression, robustness, sequential learning, small-ball probability, smoothing, spatial data, testing, and topological object data analysis, and includes applications in automobile engineering, criminology, drawing recognition, economics, environmetrics, medicine, mobile phone data, spectrometrics and urban environments. The book gathers selected, refereed contributions presented at the Fifth International Workshop on Functional and Operatorial Statistics (IWFOS) in Brno, Czech Republic. The workshop was originally to be held on June 24-26, 2020, but had to be postponed as a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic. Initiated by the Working Group on Functional and Operatorial Statistics at the University of Toulouse in 2008, the IWFOS workshops provide a forum to discuss the latest trends and advances in functional statistics and related fields, and foster the exchange of ideas and international collaboration in the field.
Author: Hoang Pham
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1848001134
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 524
Get Book Here
Book Description
This book presents the latest theories and methods of reliability and quality, with emphasis on reliability and quality in design and modelling. Each chapter is written by active researchers and professionals with international reputations, providing material which bridges the gap between theory and practice to trigger new practices and research challenges. The book therefore provides a state-of-the-art survey of reliability and quality in design and practices.
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309157331
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 428
Get Book Here
Book Description
In 1950 men and women in the United States had a combined life expectancy of 68.9 years, the 12th highest life expectancy at birth in the world. Today, life expectancy is up to 79.2 years, yet the country is now 28th on the list, behind the United Kingdom, Korea, Canada, and France, among others. The United States does have higher rates of infant mortality and violent deaths than in other developed countries, but these factors do not fully account for the country's relatively poor ranking in life expectancy. International Differences in Mortality at Older Ages: Dimensions and Sources examines patterns in international differences in life expectancy above age 50 and assesses the evidence and arguments that have been advanced to explain the poor position of the United States relative to other countries. The papers in this deeply researched volume identify gaps in measurement, data, theory, and research design and pinpoint areas for future high-priority research in this area. In addition to examining the differences in mortality around the world, the papers in International Differences in Mortality at Older Ages look at health factors and life-style choices commonly believed to contribute to the observed international differences in life expectancy. They also identify strategic opportunities for health-related interventions. This book offers a wide variety of disciplinary and scholarly perspectives to the study of mortality, and it offers in-depth analyses that can serve health professionals, policy makers, statisticians, and researchers.
Author: David Bloom
Publisher: Rand Corporation
ISBN: 0833033735
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 127
Get Book Here
Book Description
There is long-standing debate on how population growth affects national economies. A new report from Population Matters examines the history of this debate and synthesizes current research on the topic. The authors, led by Harvard economist David Bloom, conclude that population age structure, more than size or growth per se, affects economic development, and that reducing high fertility can create opportunities for economic growth if the right kinds of educational, health, and labor-market policies are in place. The report also examines specific regions of the world and how their differing policy environments have affected the relationship between population change and economic development.
