Forecasting Models of Electricity Prices PDF Download
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Author: Javier Contreras
Publisher: MDPI
ISBN: 3038424153
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 259
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Book Description
This book is a printed edition of the Special Issue "Forecasting Models of Electricity Prices" that was published in Energies
Author: Javier Contreras
Publisher: MDPI
ISBN: 3038424153
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 259
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Book Description
This book is a printed edition of the Special Issue "Forecasting Models of Electricity Prices" that was published in Energies
Author: Eran Raviv
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 35
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Book Description
The daily average price of electricity represents the price of electricity to be delivered over the full next day and serves as a key reference price in the electricity market. It is an aggregate that equals the average of hourly prices for delivery during each of the 24 individual hours. This paper demonstrates that the disaggregated hourly prices contain useful predictive information for the daily average price. Multivariate models for the full panel of hourly prices significantly outperform univariate models of the daily average price, with reductions in Root Mean Squared Error of up to 16%. Substantial care is required in order to achieve these forecast improvements. Rich multivariate models are needed to exploit the relations between different hourly prices, but the risk of overfitting must be mitigated by using dimension reduction techniques, shrinkage and forecast combinations.
Author: Mohamed E. El-Hawary
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118171349
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 324
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Book Description
A comprehensive review of state-of-the-art approaches to power systems forecasting from the most respected names in the field, internationally Advances in Electric Power and Energy Systems is the first book devoted exclusively to a subject of increasing urgency to power systems planning and operations. Written for practicing engineers, researchers, and post-grads concerned with power systems planning and forecasting, this book brings together contributions from many of the world’s foremost names in the field who address a range of critical issues, from forecasting power system load to power system pricing to post-storm service restoration times, river flow forecasting, and more. In a time of ever-increasing energy demands, mounting concerns over the environmental impacts of power generation, and the emergence of new, smart-grid technologies, electricity price forecasting has assumed a prominent role within both the academic and industrial arenas. Short-run forecasting of electricity prices has become necessary for power generation unit schedule, since it is the basis of every maximization strategy. This book fills a gap in the literature on this increasingly important topic. Following an introductory chapter offering background information necessary for a full understanding of the forecasting issues covered, this book: Introduces advanced methods of time series forecasting, as well as neural networks Provides in-depth coverage of state-of-the-art power system load forecasting and electricity price forecasting Addresses river flow forecasting based on autonomous neural network models Deals with price forecasting in a competitive market Includes estimation of post-storm restoration times for electric power distribution systems Features contributions from world-renowned experts sharing their insights and expertise in a series of self-contained chapters Advances in Electric Power and Energy Systems is a valuable resource for practicing engineers, regulators, planners, and consultants working in or concerned with the electric power industry. It is also a must read for senior undergraduates, graduate students, and researchers involved in power system planning and operation.
Author: Rafal Weron
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470059990
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 192
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Book Description
This book offers an in-depth and up-to-date review of different statistical tools that can be used to analyze and forecast the dynamics of two crucial for every energy company processes—electricity prices and loads. It provides coverage of seasonal decomposition, mean reversion, heavy-tailed distributions, exponential smoothing, spike preprocessing, autoregressive time series including models with exogenous variables and heteroskedastic (GARCH) components, regime-switching models, interval forecasts, jump-diffusion models, derivatives pricing and the market price of risk. Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices is packaged with a CD containing both the data and detailed examples of implementation of different techniques in Matlab, with additional examples in SAS. A reader can retrace all the intermediate steps of a practical implementation of a model and test his understanding of the method and correctness of the computer code using the same input data. The book will be of particular interest to the quants employed by the utilities, independent power generators and marketers, energy trading desks of the hedge funds and financial institutions, and the executives attending courses designed to help them to brush up on their technical skills. The text will be also of use to graduate students in electrical engineering, econometrics and finance wanting to get a grip on advanced statistical tools applied in this hot area. In fact, there are sixteen Case Studies in the book making it a self-contained tutorial to electricity load and price modeling and forecasting.
Author: Rui Neves-Silva
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 9783319367668
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
This book presents the 57 papers accepted for presentation at the Seventh KES International Conference on Intelligent Decision Technologies (KES-IDT 2015), held in Sorrento, Italy, in June 2015. The conference consists of keynote talks, oral and poster presentations, invited sessions and workshops on the applications and theory of intelligent decision systems and related areas. The conference provides an opportunity for the presentation and discussion of interesting new research results, promoting knowledge transfer and the generation of new ideas. The book will be of interest to all those whose work involves the development and application of intelligent decision systems.
Author: Camille Krisca Roncal
Publisher: LAP Lambert Academic Publishing
ISBN: 9783846517611
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 56
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Book Description
The changes observed in the electricity markets over the past decade brought about developments in the field of electricity modelling. In this book, traditional ARIMA models and Wavelet-ARIMA models are applied to the Singapore electricity market, Asia's first liberalized electricity market. Forecasting will be done for each electricity price modelling technique and the adequacy of the models is tested through forecast accuracy. The comparison of forecast accuracy of the models is done across different data behaviors.
Author: André B. Dorsman
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030849813
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 283
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Book Description
This book on Applied Operations Research and Financial Modelling in Energy (AORFME) presents several applications of operations research (OR) and financial modelling. The contributions by a group of OR and Finance researchers focus on a variety of energy decisions, presenting a quantitative perspective, and providing policy implications of the proposed or applied methodologies. The content is divided into three main parts: Applied OR I: Optimization Approaches, Applied OR II: Forecasting Approaches and Financial Modelling: Impacts of Energy Policies and Developments in Energy Markets. The book appeals to scholars in economics, finance and operations research, and to practitioners working in the energy sector. This is the eighth volume in a series of books on energy organized by the Centre for Energy and Value Issues (CEVI). For this volume, CEVI collaborated with Hacettepe University’s Energy Markets Research and Application Center. The previous volumes in the series are: Financial Aspects in Energy (2011), Energy Economics and Financial Markets (2012), Perspectives on Energy Risk (2014), Energy Technology and Valuation Issues (2015), Energy and Finance (2016), Energy Economy, Finance and Geostrategy (2018), and Financial Implications of Regulations in the Energy Industry (2020).
Author: Behrouz Banitalebi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Electricity price forecasting plays an important role in decision-making on bidding strategies of selling and buying electricity. This thesis computes one-day-ahead quantile forecasts of electricity prices in a highly volatile market by applying regression models to a pool of point forecasts. Three data-driven forecasting methods are implemented to generate day-ahead point forecasts of the Ontario market's electricity prices. In order to generate the three sets of point forecasts, I use: i) the Triple Exponential Smoothing (TES) method, ii) a Neural Network (NN) that combines layers of Convolutional neurons and Gradient Recurrent Units (GRU), iii) an eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) non-linear regression approach. The performance of the three models is compared against a benchmark that considers the forecast of electricity prices as the average price of the same hour and day during the last four weeks. The TES method decreases the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of the benchmark model from 10.29 to 9.42. The Convolutional GRU (ConvGRU) model and XGB regression also reduce the MAE to 8.20 and 7.06, respectively. Finally, Quantile Regression Averaging (QRA) is applied to the pool of point forecasts obtained by TES, ConvGRU, and XGB methods to compute day-ahead quantile forecasts of electricity prices. Moreover, the QRA method is further developed in this thesis by employing Gradient Boosting Regression (GBR). It follows from my real data analysis that the GBR method provides more reliable quantiles and tighter prediction intervals with smaller forecasting errors than QRA. The obtained probabilistic forecasts are used to find the optimal energy procurement plan for a large consumer and the linear programming method is applied to solve the problem. The simulation results indicate that using probabilistic forecasts of electricity prices leads to a more flexible and efficient bidding strategy than using point forecasts. Moreover, the regularized probabilistic forecast of day-ahead electricity demands is computed and used to model power generation units' scheduling.
Author: Panagiotis Manolitzas
Publisher: Business Science Reference
ISBN: 9781799854425
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 424
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Book Description
"This book focuses on operations management across several sectors and assessment strategies for the improvement of these industries"--
Author: Mohammad Shahidehpour
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0471463949
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 552
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Book Description
An essential overview of post-deregulation market operations inelectrical power systems Until recently the U.S. electricity industry was dominated byvertically integrated utilities. It is now evolving into adistributive and competitive market driven by market forces andincreased competition. With electricity amounting to a $200 billionper year market in the United States, the implications of thisrestructuring will naturally affect the rest of the world. Why is restructuring necessary? What are the components ofrestructuring? How is the new structure different from the oldmonopoly? How are the participants strategizing their options tomaximize their revenues? What are the market risks and how are theyevaluated? How are interchange transactions analyzed and approved?Starting with a background sketch of the industry, this hands-onreference provides insights into the new trends in power systemsoperation and control, and highlights advanced issues in thefield. Written for both technical and nontechnical professionals involvedin power engineering, finance, and marketing, this must-haveresource discusses: * Market structure and operation of electric power systems * Load and price forecasting and arbitrage * Price-based unit commitment and security constrained unitcommitment * Market power analysis and game theory applications * Ancillary services auction market design * Transmission pricing and congestion Using real-world case studies, this timely survey offers engineers,consultants, researchers, financial managers, university professorsand students, and other professionals in the industry acomprehensive review of electricity restructuring and how itsradical effects will shape the market.
