Author: P. A. V. B. Swamy
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Money supply
Languages : en
Pages : 36

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Author: Ellis William Tallman
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Australia
Languages : en
Pages : 56

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This paper examines the information provided by financial aggregates as predictors of real output and inflation. We employ vector autoregression (VAR) techniques to summarise the information in the data, providing evidence on the incremental forecasting value of financial aggregates in a range of forecasting systems for these variables. The in-sample results suggest significant predictive power in only a small number of cases. We then test the forecast performance of the VAR systems for two years out-of-sample in order to mimic more closely the real-time forecasting problem faced by policymakers. Overall, both in-sample and out-of-sample results suggest no robust finding of exploitable information for forecasting purposes in any of the financial aggregates under examination. There is some evidence that the aggregates yield improved forecasts late in the sample period, but there is insufficient subsequent data to draw robust conclusions from this.

Author: Ellis William Tallman
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Australia
Languages : en
Pages : 52

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This paper examines whether financial aggregates provide information useful for predicting real output growth and inflation, extending the inquiry conducted in Tallman and Chandra (1996). First, we investigate whether perfect knowledge of the future values of financial aggregates helps improve significantly the forecasting accuracy of output and inflation in a simple vector autoregression framework. The results display only one notable improvement to the forecasts with the addition of perfect information on the financial aggregates future information on credit growth helps improve the prediction accuracy of real output growth. The improvement is most noticeable during the early 1990s recession. Second, we test whether the financial aggregates are important explanators within single-equation models that are more rigorously fitted to the data. We find only one instance in which an aggregate helps explain the variation in either real output growth or inflation that is, the growth in credit helps explain the growth in real output in a particular specification of the output model. This finding, though, is sensitive to the choice of foreign output proxy. In sum, we conclude that while credit may have some useful information in times of financial restructuring it is unlikely that there is information in financial aggregates that is exploitable systematically for predicting either real output growth or inflation.

Author: P. A. V. B. Swamy
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Demand for money
Languages : en
Pages : 48

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Author: Ramya Hewarathna
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 40

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Author: M. Belongia
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 0230288235
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 331

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Book Description
The leading researchers from central banks and universities around the world debate issues central to the performance of Divisia monetary aggregates both in theory and in practice. The overall conclusion is that Divisia monetary aggregates outperform their simple sum counterparts in a wide range of applications the world over. The book is the first volume-length study of empirical data and theoretical research on the subject.

Author: Rob J Hyndman
Publisher: OTexts
ISBN: 0987507117
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 380

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Book Description
Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.

Author: Muzafar Shah Habibullah
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 0429824351
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 199

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Book Description
First published in 1999, this volume examines the role and effects of financial liberalisation in ten deregulated Asian developing countries including Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Nepal, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan and Thailand. These areas experienced significant financial and economic changes between the ‘financially repressed economies’ of the 1970s through to the 1990s. Muzafar Shah Habibullah approaches this issue in two parts. Part 1 provides empirical evidence of relationships between monetary aggregates, nominal income and price level. In part 2, he offers an early attempt to evaluate the Divisia monetary aggregate as an alternative to the Simple-sum aggregate as an indicator for the financial and economic situation of Asian developing countries.

Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 9781557757326
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 174

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Book Description
Australia's recent economic performance has been impressive. It has experienced steady growth since the early 1990s and inflation has averaged just 2 percent over the same period. This strong showing marks a departure from the performance of the postwar years, when falling productivity and rising inflation caused Australia's per capita income to slip from one of the highest among OECD countries to merely average. This economic turnaround is explored in this book edited by Anoop Singh, Josh Felman, Ray Brooks, Tim Callen, and Christian Thimann of the Asia and Pacific Department.

Author: Michael P. Clements
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 140517191X
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 616

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Book Description
A Companion to Economic Forecasting provides an accessible and comprehensive account of recent developments in economic forecasting. Each of the chapters has been specially written by an expert in the field, bringing together in a single volume a range of contrasting approaches and views. Uniquely surveying forecasting in a single volume, the Companion provides a comprehensive account of the leading approaches and modeling strategies that are routinely employed.