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Author: Palle Schelde Andersen
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Capital market
Languages : en
Pages : 64
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Book Description
Author: Palle Schelde Andersen
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Capital market
Languages : en
Pages : 64
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Book Description
Author: David F. Hendry
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 9780262582421
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 236
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Book Description
How to interpret and evaluate economic forecasts and the uncertainties inherent in them.
Author: Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475576447
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 43
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Book Description
This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected, with the relation being particularly strong, both statistically and economically, early in the crisis. A natural interpretation is that fiscal multipliers were substantially higher than implicitly assumed by forecasters. The weaker relation in more recent years may reflect in part learning by forecasters and in part smaller multipliers than in the early years of the crisis.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Budget
Languages : en
Pages : 196
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Book Description
Author: Graham Elliott
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400880890
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 567
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Book Description
A comprehensive and integrated approach to economic forecasting problems Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns. Economic Forecasting presents a comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits of different methods currently available to forecasters. This text approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications of this approach for how we understand variable selection, estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how we evaluate the resulting forecasts. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts. The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables. The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance. Presents a comprehensive and integrated approach to assessing the strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting methods Approaches forecasting from a decision theoretic and estimation perspective Covers Bayesian modeling, including methods for generating density forecasts Discusses model selection methods as well as forecast combinations Covers a large range of nonlinear prediction models, including regime switching models, threshold autoregressions, and models with time-varying volatility Features numerous empirical examples Examines the latest advances in forecast evaluation Essential for practitioners and students alike
Author: Chaiechi, Taha
Publisher: IGI Global
ISBN: 1466660198
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 353
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Book Description
Current research often highlights the importance of financial markets as well as financial system development. However, the current literature in this field still fails to adequately explain the relationship between financial market and macroeconomic development. Post-Keynesian Empirical Research and the Debate on Financial Market Development integrates the concept of financial intermediaries with Post-Keynesian macroeconomic modeling to discuss the relationship between financial markets and systems and macroeconomic development. Discussing key macroeconomic variables such as investment, savings, and productivity growth, this timely resource is essential for students, academicians, as well as finance and economics professionals interested in uncovering the latest research in this field.
Author: Sylwia Nowak
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475555539
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 15
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Book Description
Macroeconomic forecasts are persistently too optimistic. This paper finds that common factors related to general uncertainty about U.S. macrofinancial prospects and global demand drive this overoptimism. These common factors matter most for advanced economies and G- 20 countries. The results suggest that an increase in uncertainty-driven overoptimism has dampening effects on next-year real GDP growth rates. This implies that incorporating the common structure governing forecast errors across countries can help improve subsequent forecasts.
Author: Joshua Yindenaba Abor
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 0429835256
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 461
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Book Description
Contemporary Issues in Development Finance provides comprehensive and up-to-date coverage of theoretical and policy issues in development finance from both the domestic and the external finance perspectives and emphasizes addressing the gaps in financial markets. The chapters cover topical issues such as microfinance, private sector financing, aid, FDI, remittances, sovereign wealth, trade finance, and the sectoral financing of agricultural and infrastructural projects. Readers will acquire both breadth and depth of knowledge in critical and contemporary issues in development finance from a philosophical and yet pragmatic development impact approach. The text ensures this by carefully integrating the relevant theoretical underpinnings, empirical assessments, and practical policy issues into its analysis. The work is designed to be fully accessible to practitioners with only a limited theoretical economic background, allowing them to deeply engage with the book as useful reference material. Readers may find more advanced information and technical details provided in clear, concise boxes throughout the text. Finally, each chapter is fully supported by a set of review questions and by cases and examples from developing countries, particularly those in Africa. This book is a valuable resource for both development finance researchers and students taking courses in development finance, development economics, international finance, financial development policy, and economic policy management. Practitioners will find the development impact, policy, and conceptual analysis dimensions insightful analysing and designing intervention strategies.
Author: Mr.Olivier Coibion
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475505493
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 57
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Book Description
We study the effects and historical contribution of monetary policy shocks to consumption and income inequality in the United States since 1980. Contractionary monetary policy actions systematically increase inequality in labor earnings, total income, consumption and total expenditures. Furthermore, monetary shocks can account for a significant component of the historical cyclical variation in income and consumption inequality. Using detailed micro-level data on income and consumption, we document the different channels via which monetary policy shocks affect inequality, as well as how these channels depend on the nature of the change in monetary policy.
Author: Douglas D. Evanoff
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0199939403
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 482
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Book Description
This volume critically re-examines the profession's understanding of asset bubbles in light of the global financial crisis of 2007-09. It is well known that bubbles have occurred in the past, with the October 1929 crash as the most demonstrative example. However, the remarkably well-behaved performance of the US economy from 1945 to 2006, and, in particular during the Great Moderation period of 1984 to 2006, assured the economics profession and monetary policymakers that asset bubbles could be effectively managed with little or no real economic impact. The recent financial crisis has now triggered a debate about the emergence of a sequence of repeated bubbles in the Nasdaq market, housing market, credit market, and commodity markets. The realities of the crisis have intensified theoretical modeling, empirical methodologies, and debate on policy issues surrounding asset price bubbles and their potentially adverse economic impact if poorly managed. Taking a novel approach, the editors of this book present five classic papers that represent accepted thinking about asset bubbles prior to the financial crisis. They also include original papers challenging orthodox thinking and presenting new insights. A summary essay highlights the lessons learned and experiences gained since the crisis.
