Introduction to Financial Forecasting in Investment Analysis PDF Download
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Author: John B. Guerard, Jr.
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461452392
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 245
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Book Description
Forecasting—the art and science of predicting future outcomes—has become a crucial skill in business and economic analysis. This volume introduces the reader to the tools, methods, and techniques of forecasting, specifically as they apply to financial and investing decisions. With an emphasis on "earnings per share" (eps), the author presents a data-oriented text on financial forecasting, understanding financial data, assessing firm financial strategies (such as share buybacks and R&D spending), creating efficient portfolios, and hedging stock portfolios with financial futures. The opening chapters explain how to understand economic fluctuations and how the stock market leads the general economic trend; introduce the concept of portfolio construction and how movements in the economy influence stock price movements; and introduce the reader to the forecasting process, including exponential smoothing and time series model estimations. Subsequent chapters examine the composite index of leading economic indicators (LEI); review financial statement analysis and mean-variance efficient portfolios; and assess the effectiveness of analysts’ earnings forecasts. Using data from such firms as Intel, General Electric, and Hitachi, Guerard demonstrates how forecasting tools can be applied to understand the business cycle, evaluate market risk, and demonstrate the impact of global stock selection modeling and portfolio construction.
Author: John B. Guerard, Jr.
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461452392
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 245
Get Book Here
Book Description
Forecasting—the art and science of predicting future outcomes—has become a crucial skill in business and economic analysis. This volume introduces the reader to the tools, methods, and techniques of forecasting, specifically as they apply to financial and investing decisions. With an emphasis on "earnings per share" (eps), the author presents a data-oriented text on financial forecasting, understanding financial data, assessing firm financial strategies (such as share buybacks and R&D spending), creating efficient portfolios, and hedging stock portfolios with financial futures. The opening chapters explain how to understand economic fluctuations and how the stock market leads the general economic trend; introduce the concept of portfolio construction and how movements in the economy influence stock price movements; and introduce the reader to the forecasting process, including exponential smoothing and time series model estimations. Subsequent chapters examine the composite index of leading economic indicators (LEI); review financial statement analysis and mean-variance efficient portfolios; and assess the effectiveness of analysts’ earnings forecasts. Using data from such firms as Intel, General Electric, and Hitachi, Guerard demonstrates how forecasting tools can be applied to understand the business cycle, evaluate market risk, and demonstrate the impact of global stock selection modeling and portfolio construction.
Author: Steven J. Monahan
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781680834512
Category : Financial statements
Languages : en
Pages : 110
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Book Description
I synthesize and discuss academic research on financial statement analysis and earnings forecasting. I begin by discussing analytical and empirical evidence that shows that earnings, not dividends or free cash flows, are the payoffs that investors forecast when estimating value. This result is fundamental and it provides clear motivation for studying earnings forecasting and the role that historical accounting numbers play in the earnings-forecasting process. I then provide a detailed discussion of the research design choices that are made when developing and evaluating an earnings-forecasting approach. I describe the tradeoffs involved when making these choices and I review the extant empirical literature. An overarching theme of this discussion is that there are substantial research opportunities.
Author: Peter Douglas Easton
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781618532602
Category : Business enterprises
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Author: Steven J. Monahan
Publisher: Foundations and Trends (R) in Accounting
ISBN: 9781680834505
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 124
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Book Description
Financial Statement Analysis and Earnings Forecasting is the process of analyzing historical financial statement data for the purpose of developing forecasts of future earnings. This process is important because it is central to the valuation of companies and the securities they issue. After a short introduction, Section 2 delves into the question "Why earnings"? Focusing on dividend policy irrelevance, the author describes key analytical results that imply that expected earnings are the fundamental determinant of both equity and enterprise value. Section 3 examines the issues involved in selecting the earnings metric to forecast. Once an earnings metric has been chosen, the next question to ask is "How useful are historical accounting numbers for developing forecasts of that metric?" Sections 4 through 8 focus on this question. Section 4 discusses the general role of econometric modeling. Section 5 reviews time-series models. Section 6 examines the choices a researcher makes when using panel-data approaches and the author describes the advantages of these approaches. Section 7 reviews the role of accounting measurement in determining the usefulness of historical accounting numbers for developing forecasts of future earnings. Section 8 examines approaches for forecasting the higher moments of future earnings and section 9 provides a summary.
Author: Martin S. Fridson
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0471264601
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 414
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Book Description
Praise for Financial Statement Analysis A Practitioner's Guide Third Edition "This is an illuminating and insightful tour of financial statements, how they can be used to inform, how they can be used to mislead, and how they can be used to analyze the financial health of a company." -Professor Jay O. Light Harvard Business School "Financial Statement Analysis should be required reading for anyone who puts a dime to work in the securities markets or recommends that others do the same." -Jack L. Rivkin Executive Vice President (retired) Citigroup Investments "Fridson and Alvarez provide a valuable practical guide for understanding, interpreting, and critically assessing financial reports put out by firms. Their discussion of profits-'quality of earnings'-is particularly insightful given the recent spate of reporting problems encountered by firms. I highly recommend their book to anyone interested in getting behind the numbers as a means of predicting future profits and stock prices." -Paul Brown Chair-Department of Accounting Leonard N. Stern School of Business, NYU "Let this book assist in financial awareness and transparency and higher standards of reporting, and accountability to all stakeholders." -Patricia A. Small Treasurer Emeritus, University of California Partner, KCM Investment Advisors "This book is a polished gem covering the analysis of financial statements. It is thorough, skeptical and extremely practical in its review." -Daniel J. Fuss Vice Chairman Loomis, Sayles & Company, LP
Author: SUBRAMANYAM
Publisher: McGraw Hill
ISBN: 1526864991
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 816
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Book Description
EBOOK: Financial Statement Analysis
Author: Gerald I. White
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0471375942
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 786
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Book Description
Accounting Standards (US and International) have been updated to reflect the latest pronouncements. * An increased international focus with more coverage of IASC and non-US GAAPs and more non-US examples.
Author: Peter Easton
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
ISBN: 1601981945
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 148
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Book Description
Estimating the Cost of Capital Implied by Market Prices and Accounting Data focuses on estimating the expected rate of return implied by market prices, summary accounting numbers, and forecasts of earnings and dividends. Estimates of the expected rate of return, often used as proxies for the cost of capital, are obtained by inverting accounting-based valuation models. The author describes accounting-based valuation models and discusses how these models have been used, and how they may be used, to obtain estimates of the cost of capital. The practical appeal of accounting-based valuation models is that they focus on the two variables that are commonly at the heart of valuations carried out by equity analysts -- forecasts of earnings and forecasts of earnings growth. The question at the core of this monograph is -- How can these forecasts be used to obtain an estimate of the cost of capital? The author examines the empirical validity of the estimates based on these forecasts and explores ways to improve these estimates. In addition, this monograph details a method for isolating the effect of any factor of interest (such as cross-listing, fraud, disclosure quality, taxes, analyst following, accounting standards, etc.) on the cost of capital. If you are interested in understanding the academic literature on accounting-based estimates of expected rate of return this monograph is for you. Estimating the Cost of Capital Implied by Market Prices and Accounting Data provides a foundation for a deeper comprehension of this literature and will give a jump start to those who have an interest in these topics. The key ideas are introduced via examples based on actual forecasts, accounting information, and market prices for listed firms, and the numerical examples are based on sound algebraic relations.
Author: Stephen H. Penman
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780071267809
Category : Financial statements
Languages : en
Pages : 754
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Book Description
Valuation is at the heart of investing. A considerable part of the information for valuation is in the financial statements.Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation, 5 e by Stephen Penman shows students how to extract information from financial statements and use that data to value firms. The 5th edition shows how to handle the accounting in financial statements and use the financial statements as a lens to view a business and assess the value it generates.
Author: Thomas R. Robinson
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118235126
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 950
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Book Description
Up-to-date information on using financial statement analysis to successfully assess company performance, from the seasoned experts at the CFA Institute Designed to help investment professionals and students effectively evaluate financial statements in today's international and volatile markets, amid an uncertain global economic climate, International Financial Statement Analysis, Second Edition compiles unparalleled wisdom from the CFA in one comprehensive volume. Written by a distinguished team of authors and experienced contributors, the book provides complete coverage of the key financial field of statement analysis. Fully updated with new standards and methods for a post crisis world, this Second Edition covers the mechanics of the accounting process; the foundation for financial reporting; the differences and similarities in income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements around the world; examines the implications for securities valuation of any financial statement element or transaction, and shows how different financial statement analysis techniques can provide valuable clues into a company's operations and risk characteristics. Financial statement analysis allows for realistic valuations of investment, lending, or merger and acquisition opportunities Essential reading for financial analysts, investment analysts, portfolio managers, asset allocators, graduate students, and others interested in this important field of finance Includes key coverage of income tax accounting and reporting, the difficulty of measuring the value of employee compensation, and the impact of foreign exchange rates on the financial statements of multinational corporations Financial statement analysis gives investment professionals important insights into the true financial condition of a company, and International Financial Statement Analysis, Second Edition puts the full knowledge of the CFA at your fingertips.
