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Author: George Wilton
Publisher: Az Boek
ISBN: 6256315820
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 49
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Book Description
Author: George Wilton
Publisher: Az Boek
ISBN: 6256315820
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 49
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Book Description
Author: Jon Danielsson
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119977118
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 307
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Book Description
Financial Risk Forecasting is a complete introduction to practical quantitative risk management, with a focus on market risk. Derived from the authors teaching notes and years spent training practitioners in risk management techniques, it brings together the three key disciplines of finance, statistics and modeling (programming), to provide a thorough grounding in risk management techniques. Written by renowned risk expert Jon Danielsson, the book begins with an introduction to financial markets and market prices, volatility clusters, fat tails and nonlinear dependence. It then goes on to present volatility forecasting with both univatiate and multivatiate methods, discussing the various methods used by industry, with a special focus on the GARCH family of models. The evaluation of the quality of forecasts is discussed in detail. Next, the main concepts in risk and models to forecast risk are discussed, especially volatility, value-at-risk and expected shortfall. The focus is both on risk in basic assets such as stocks and foreign exchange, but also calculations of risk in bonds and options, with analytical methods such as delta-normal VaR and duration-normal VaR and Monte Carlo simulation. The book then moves on to the evaluation of risk models with methods like backtesting, followed by a discussion on stress testing. The book concludes by focussing on the forecasting of risk in very large and uncommon events with extreme value theory and considering the underlying assumptions behind almost every risk model in practical use – that risk is exogenous – and what happens when those assumptions are violated. Every method presented brings together theoretical discussion and derivation of key equations and a discussion of issues in practical implementation. Each method is implemented in both MATLAB and R, two of the most commonly used mathematical programming languages for risk forecasting with which the reader can implement the models illustrated in the book. The book includes four appendices. The first introduces basic concepts in statistics and financial time series referred to throughout the book. The second and third introduce R and MATLAB, providing a discussion of the basic implementation of the software packages. And the final looks at the concept of maximum likelihood, especially issues in implementation and testing. The book is accompanied by a website - www.financialriskforecasting.com – which features downloadable code as used in the book.
Author: Michael Samonas
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118921100
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 234
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Book Description
Risk analysis has become critical to modern financial planning Financial Forecasting, Analysis and Modelling provides a complete framework of long-term financial forecasts in a practical and accessible way, helping finance professionals include uncertainty in their planning and budgeting process. With thorough coverage of financial statement simulation models and clear, concise implementation instruction, this book guides readers step-by-step through the entire projection plan development process. Readers learn the tools, techniques, and special considerations that increase accuracy and smooth the workflow, and develop a more robust analysis process that improves financial strategy. The companion website provides a complete operational model that can be customised to develop financial projections or a range of other key financial measures, giving readers an immediately-applicable tool to facilitate effective decision-making. In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, the need for experienced financial modelling professionals has steadily increased as organisations rush to adjust to economic volatility and uncertainty. This book provides the deeper level of understanding needed to develop stronger financial planning, with techniques tailored to real-life situations. Develop long-term projection plans using Excel Use appropriate models to develop a more proactive strategy Apply risk and uncertainty projections more accurately Master the Excel Scenario Manager, Sensitivity Analysis, Monte Carlo Simulation, and more Risk plays a larger role in financial planning than ever before, and possible outcomes must be measured before decisions are made. Uncertainty has become a critical component in financial planning, and accuracy demands it be used appropriately. With special focus on uncertainty in modelling and planning, Financial Forecasting, Analysis and Modelling is a comprehensive guide to the mechanics of modern finance.
Author: Jae K. Shim
Publisher: Prentice Hall
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 468
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Book Description
Ready-to-use forecasting and modeling tools to read the future under any given set of assumptions. Manipulate variables such as revenues, expenses, cash flow and earnings while improving the quality of decision-making and reduces risk of error.
Author: Jae K. Shim
Publisher: Wolters Kluwer
ISBN: 9780735202085
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 532
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Book Description
Accompanying CD-ROM ... "includes spreadsheet models with ready-to-use formulas ..."
Author: Abdol S. Soofi
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461509319
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 496
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Book Description
Modelling and Forecasting Financial Data brings together a coherent and accessible set of chapters on recent research results on this topic. To make such methods readily useful in practice, the contributors to this volume have agreed to make available to readers upon request all computer programs used to implement the methods discussed in their respective chapters. Modelling and Forecasting Financial Data is a valuable resource for researchers and graduate students studying complex systems in finance, biology, and physics, as well as those applying such methods to nonlinear time series analysis and signal processing.
Author: Greg Dickman
Publisher: Nelson Australia
ISBN: 9780170121552
Category : Business forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 718
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Book Description
Greg Dickmana s Financial Forecasting and Data Analysis is another in his series of well received textbooks. His popular approach provides students with a complete, easily comprehensible overview of the principles of forecasting and data analysis. Using an engaging and accessible writing style, this text gives students a detailed grasp of the theory underlying the computations. Readers are taken step by step through the basic financial, mathematical and statistical concepts. Each new principle is reinforced with worked examples and a variety of meaningful problems to try. Case studies throughout simulate work situations and make the student appreciate the importance of both the calculation and its interpretation as applied to the real world. This text is intended to meet the needs of the National Training Package Competencies FNSICORG517A: Prepare financial forecasts and projections and analyse market data.
Author: N. Carnot
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 0230306446
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 516
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Book Description
Economic Forecasting provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting.
Author: Qiong Li
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 156
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Book Description
Author: Michal Andrle
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475538006
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Book Description
We extend the framework in Andrle and others (2013) to incorporate an explicit role for money targets and target misses in the analysis of monetary policy in low-income countries (LICs), with an application to Kenya. We provide a general specification that can nest various types of money targeting (ranging from targets based on optimal money demand forecasts to those derived from simple money growth rules), interest-rate based frameworks, and intermediate cases. Our framework acknowledges that ex-post adherence to targets is in itself an objective of policy in LICs; here we provide a novel interpretation of target misses in terms of structural shocks (aggregate demand, policy, shocks to money demand, etc). In the case of Kenya, we find that: (i) the setting of money targets is consistent with money demand forecasting, (ii) targets have not played a systematic role in monetary policy, and (iii) target misses mainly reflect shocks to money demand. Simulations of the model under alternative policy specifications show that the stronger the ex-post target adherence, the greater the macroeconomic volatility. Our findings highlight the benefits of a model-based approach to monetary policy analysis in LICs, including in countries with money-targeting frameworks.
