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Author: Karin Lin-Greenberg
Publisher: University of Georgia Press
ISBN: 0820346861
Category : Fiction
Languages : en
Pages : 188
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Book Description
Taking place in locales as diverse as small-town Ohio, the mountains of western North Carolina, and the plains of Kansas, Lin-Greenberg's stories provide insight into the human condition over a cross section of age and culture. Although the characters are often faced with challenges, the stories capture moments of optimism and hope.
Author: Karin Lin-Greenberg
Publisher: University of Georgia Press
ISBN: 0820346861
Category : Fiction
Languages : en
Pages : 188
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Book Description
Taking place in locales as diverse as small-town Ohio, the mountains of western North Carolina, and the plains of Kansas, Lin-Greenberg's stories provide insight into the human condition over a cross section of age and culture. Although the characters are often faced with challenges, the stories capture moments of optimism and hope.
Author: Dana Nuccitelli
Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing USA
ISBN:
Category : Nature
Languages : en
Pages : 283
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Book Description
This book explains the science of climate change in plain language and shows that the 2 to 4 percent of climate scientists who are skeptical that humans are the main cause of global warming are a fringe minority—and have a well-established history of being wrong. Although some politicians, pundits, and members of the public do not believe it, global warming predictions by mainstream climate scientists have been remarkably accurate while those made by climate deniers have not. And if mainstream global warming predictions continue to prove correct, the window of opportunity to prevent a climate catastrophe is quickly closing. This book is the first to illustrate the accuracy—and inaccuracy—of global warming predictions made by mainstream climate scientists and by climate contrarians from the 1970s to the present day. Written in simple, non-technical language that provides an accessible explanation of key climate science concepts, the book will appeal to general audiences without previous knowledge about climate science. Author Dana Nuccitelli, an environmental scientist and risk assessor, discusses some key climate discoveries dating back to the 19th century and debunks myths such as the idea that climate scientists and climate models have grossly over-predicted global warming. He addresses recent findings of a 97-percent consensus in the peer-reviewed scientific literature that humans are causing global warming—a nearly unanimous agreement that formed in the early 1990s and has grown through the present day. Nuccitelli also discusses what the future climate might look like if current trends continue unabated, and what we as a global society need to do to prevent a climate catastrophe.
Author: Nico Bauer
Publisher: diplom.de
ISBN: 3959936133
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 104
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Book Description
Tropical cyclones (TC) are the most destructive weather phenomena in the world. These storm systems are common in large parts of highly populated tropics and subtropics with favorable atmospheric conditions. Society’s vulnerability to them and the associated annual economic costs have risen steadily: mean worldwide insured losses averaged 75 billion USD per year in the 10 years between 2009 and 2019. Cinco et al. (2016) analyzed TC data and observed that in the period from 1951 to 2013, an average of 19.4 TCs entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility in the Western North Pacific, and nine TCs moved over the islands. Consequently, the Philippines have the highest number of landfalling storms and the highest rate of severe TC worldwide. In turn, the TCs that move over the islands into the South China Sea frequently affect the coast of Vietnam. Through a spatial assessment of TC vulnerability, Nguyen et al. (2019) have demonstrated a high or very high susceptibility in most parts of coastal Vietnam. The most extreme event over the WNP in the last century was Typhoon Haiyan, which caused 6,300 deaths and widespread economic and socioeconomic damage. This significant susceptibility implies the high importance of improving weather forecast models for greater predictive capability. In recent decades, the quality of forecasting tropical cyclone tracks has increased steadily at the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast and other numerical weather prediction centers. Nevertheless, intensity predictions still present more significant challenges.
Author: Torleif Halkjelsvik
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319749536
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 117
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Book Description
This book is published open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. Predicting the time needed to complete a project, task or daily activity can be difficult and people frequently underestimate how long an activity will take. This book sheds light on why and when this happens, what we should do to avoid it and how to give more realistic time predictions. It describes methods for predicting time usage in situations with high uncertainty, explains why two plus two is usually more than four in time prediction contexts, reports on research on time prediction biases, and summarizes the evidence in support of different time prediction methods and principles. Based on a comprehensive review of the research, it is the first book summarizing what we know about judgment-based time predictions. Large parts of the book are directed toward people wishing to achieve better time predictions in their professional life, such as project managers, graphic designers, architects, engineers, film producers, consultants, software developers, or anyone else in need of realistic time usage predictions. It is also of benefit to those with a general interest in judgment and decision-making or those who want to improve their ability to predict and plan ahead in daily life.
Author: Dan Gardner
Publisher: McClelland & Stewart
ISBN: 0771035217
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 319
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Book Description
In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future — everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it’s so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that pundits who are more famous are less accurate — and the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.
Author: Ray Kurzweil
Publisher: Penguin
ISBN: 1101077883
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 404
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Book Description
NATIONAL BESTSELLER • Bold futurist Ray Kurzweil, author of The Singularity Is Near, offers a framework for envisioning the future of machine intelligence—“a book for anyone who wonders where human technology is going next” (The New York Times Book Review). “Kurzweil offers a thought-provoking analysis of human and artificial intelligence and a unique look at a future in which the capabilities of the computer and the species that invented it grow ever closer.”—BILL GATES Imagine a world where the difference between man and machine blurs, where the line between humanity and technology fades, and where the soul and the silicon chip unite. This is not science fiction. This is the twenty-first century according to Ray Kurzweil, the “restless genius” (The Wall Street Journal), “ultimate thinking machine” (Forbes), and inventor of the most innovative and compelling technology of our era. In his inspired hands, life in the new millennium no longer seems daunting. Instead, it promises to be an age in which the marriage of human sensitivity and artificial intelligence fundamentally alters and improves the way we live. More than just a list of predictions, Kurzweil’s prophetic blueprint for the future guides us through the inexorable advances that will result in: • Computers exceeding the memory capacity and computational ability of the human brain (with human-level capabilities not far behind) • Relationships with automated personalities who will be our teachers, companions, and lovers • Information fed straight into our brains along direct neural pathways Eventually, the distinction between humans and computers will have become sufficiently blurred that when the machines claim to be conscious, we will believe them.
Author: Milkyway Media
Publisher: Milkyway Media
ISBN:
Category : Study Aids
Languages : en
Pages : 26
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Book Description
Buy now to get the main key ideas from David Robson's The Expectation Effect Science journalist David Robson argues that our beliefs and expectations profoundly shape our health, well-being, and performance in The Expectation Effect (2022). He highlights scientific studies and real-life examples demonstrating how our thoughts affect outcomes. Robson shows how expectations influence fitness, diet, stress, and cognitive abilities. He also offers techniques that can harness the power of expectations for better health and performance.
Author: Everest Media,
Publisher: Everest Media LLC
ISBN: 1669355993
Category : Self-Help
Languages : en
Pages : 26
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Book Description
Please note: This is a companion version & not the original book. Sample Book Insights: #1 The brain is a prediction machine that constructs an elaborate simulation of the world based on its expectations and previous experiences. These simulations usually coincide with objective reality, but they can sometimes stray far from what is actually in the physical world. #2 The brain’s visual cortex is wired with many neural connections feeding in predictions from other regions of the brain. The eye is a small but essential element of your vision, while the rest of what you see is created in the dark within your skull. #3 The brain’s reliance on prediction helps us deal with incredible ambiguity. If you look at the image below, you will struggle to identify anything recognizable. But if you see the original image, it suddenly becomes a lot clearer. #4 The brain can also predict the effects of our movements, so that we don’t jump out of our skin whenever one of our legs brushes against the other. However, there will always be some small errors in each brain’s simulation of the world around us.
Author: Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher: Crown
ISBN: 080413670X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 331
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Book Description
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Author: Clement A. Tisdell
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN: 1800377843
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 160
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Book Description
Offering a concise and engaging overview of the concepts of bounded rationality and their applications, this stimulating Advanced Introduction engages with the topic in a constructively critical manner, introducing new ideas. Chapters cover key topics including: optimally imperfect decisions; ecological rationality; the role of bounded rationality in evolutionary economics; satisficing as a response to bounded rationality; desirable types of economic decisions; the relational exercise of foresight; and the impact of bounded rationality of the efficiency of organizations.
