Exploratory Modeling and the Use of Simulation for Policy Analysis PDF Download
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Author: Steven C. Bankes
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Computer simulation
Languages : en
Pages : 30
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Book Description
Author: Steven C. Bankes
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Computer simulation
Languages : en
Pages : 30
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: Rand Corporation
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Author: Buyung Agusdinata
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Decision making
Languages : en
Pages : 308
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Book Description
Author: Steven C. Bankes
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Policy sciences
Languages : en
Pages : 15
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Book Description
Exploratory modeling is using computational experiments to assist in reasoning about systems where there is significant uncertainty. While frequently confused with the use of models to consolidate knowledge into a package that is used to predict system behavior, exploratory modeling is a very different kind of use, requiring a different methodology for model development. This paper distinguishes these two broad classes of model use, describes some of the approaches used in exploratory modeling, and suggests some technological innovations needed to facilitate it.
Author: Paul K. Davis
Publisher: Rand Corporation
ISBN: 0833041266
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 89
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Book Description
An examination of analysis and analysis practices for defense planning, the paper1s purpose is to delineate priorities for the way ahead, i.e., for investments and other actions to ensure that future models and simulations will serve the needs of decisionmakers. The analysis in question is accomplished for Quadrennial Reviews and for continuing work on capability assessments, requirements analysis, and program analysis.
Author: Anand Desai
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461416655
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 239
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Book Description
Public policy and management problems have been described as poorly defined, messy, squishy, unstructured, intractable, and wicked. In a word, they are complex. This book illustrates the development and use of simulation models designed to capture some of the complexity inherent in the formulation, management, and implementation of policies aimed at addressing such problems. Simulation models have long existed at the fringes of policy inquiry but are not yet considered an essential component of the policy analyst’s toolkit. However, this situation is likely to change because with improvements in computational power and software, simulation is now easier to include in the standard repertoire of research tools available for discovery and decision support. This volume provides both a conceptual rationale for using simulations to inform public policy and a practical introduction to how such models might be constructed and employed. The focus of these papers is on the uses of simulation to gain understanding and inform policy decisions and action. Techniques represented in this volume include Monte Carlo simulation, system dynamics and agent based modeling.
Author: Constantine Gatsonis
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461227143
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 446
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Book Description
The past few years have witnessed dramatic advances in computational methods for Bayesian inference. As a result, Bayesian approaches to solving a wide variety of problems in data analysis and decision-making have become feasible, and there is currently a growth spurt in the application of Bayesian methods. The purpose of this volume is to present several detailed examples of applications of Bayesian thinking, with an emphasis on the scientific or technological context of the problem being solved. The papers collected here were presented and discussed at a Workshop held at Carnegie-Mellon University, September 29 through October 1, 1991. There are five ma jor articles, each with two discussion pieces and a reply. These articles were invited by us following a public solicitation of abstracts. The problems they address are diverse, but all bear on policy decision-making. Though not part of our original design for the Workshop, that commonality of theme does emphasize the usefulness of Bayesian meth ods in this arena. Along with the invited papers were several additional commentaries of a general nature; the first comment was invited and the remainder grew out of the discussion at the Workshop. In addition there are nine contributed papers, selected from the thirty-four presented at the Workshop, on a variety of applications. This collection of case studies illustrates the ways in which Bayesian methods are being incorporated into statistical practice. The strengths (and limitations) of the approach become apparent through the examples.
Author: Jack C. Lee
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 1461224144
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 458
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Book Description
Modelling and Prediction Honoring Seymour Geisser contains the refereed proceedings of the Conference on Forecasting, Prediction, and Modelling held at National Chiao Tung University, Taiwan in 1994. The papers discuss general methodological issues; prediction; design of experiments and classification; prior distributions and estimation; posterior odds, testing, and model selection; modelling and prediction in finance; and time series modelling and applications. Specific topics include very interesting and topical statistical issues related to DNA fingerprinting and spatial image reconstruction, foundational issues for applied statistics and testing hypotheses, forecasting tax revenues and bond prices, and assessing oxone depletion.
Author: Richard Hoefer
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0199735190
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 230
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Book Description
Although practitioners do not often identify an explicit focus on social welfare policy, the analysis (what it is) and evaluation (what it does) of policy is basic to social work practice. This unique pocket guide presents a case study on one of the most important domestic policy decisions in the post-WWII era, the passage of the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA) of 1996. This law ended welfare as we knew it by creating the Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) program and closing the Aid to Families with Dependent Children program.Examining the law through three decision-making models assists readers in understanding TANF's historical antecedents, its political and power implications, and the way in which it meets social and economic goals. Individual chapters demonstrate how programs such as TANF are evaluated and the methods that can be used, such as primarily qualitative, primarily quantitative, and mixed methods evaluation techniques. Illustrating the advantages and disadvantages of each approach for evaluation, Hoefer makes use of the numerous studies undertaken in the thirteen years since welfare reform and its 2006 reauthorization. Part history text, readers will also learn about the details of the TANF legislation creation and evaluation, but will finish with a greater understanding of the policy creation and evaluation processes.This pocket guide will be useful to researchers and students of advanced social policy who seek to understand the two stages of policy-making, to develop policy, or to describe the impact of social policy on social problems.
Author: Wil A. H. Thissen
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461446023
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 291
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Book Description
Traditional policy analysis approaches are characterized by a focus on system modeling and choosing among policy alternatives. While successful in many cases, this approach has been increasingly criticized for being technocratic and ignoring the behavioral and political dimensions of most policy processes. In recent decades, increased awareness of the multi-actor, multiple perspective, and poly-centric character of many policy processes has led to the development of a variety of different perspectives on the styles and roles of policy analysis, and to new analytical tools and approaches – for example, argumentative approaches, participative policy analysis, and negotiation support. As a result, the field has become multi-faceted and somewhat fragmented. Public Policy Analysis: New Developments acknowledges the variety of approaches and provides a synthesis of the traditional and new approaches to policy analysis. It provides an overview and typology of different types of policy analytic activities, characterizing them according to differences in character and leading values, and linking them to a variety of theoretical notions on policymaking. Thereby, it provides assistance to both end users and analysts in choosing an appropriate approach given a specific policy situation. By broadening the traditional approach and methods to include the analysis of actors and actor networks related to the policy issue at hand, it deepens the state of the art in certain areas. While the main focus of the book is on the cognitive dimensions of policy analysis, it also links the policy analysis process to the policymaking process, showing how to identify and involve all relevant stakeholders in the process, and how to create favorable conditions for use of the results of policy analytic efforts by the policy actors. The book has as its major objective to describe the state-of-the-art and the latest developments in ex-ante policy analysis. It is divided into two parts. Part I explores and structures policy analysis developments, the development and description of approaches to diagnose policy situations, design policy analytic efforts, and policy process conditions. Part II focuses on recent developments regarding models and modeling for policy analysis, placing modeling approaches in the context of the variety of conditions and approaches elaborated in Part I.
