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Author: Philip Hans Franses
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1107081599
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 145
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Book Description
Brings together current theoretical insights and new empirical results to examine expert adjustment of model forecasts from an econometric perspective.
Author: Philip Hans Franses
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1107081599
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 145
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Book Description
Brings together current theoretical insights and new empirical results to examine expert adjustment of model forecasts from an econometric perspective.
Author: Martin Kunc
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 1349952575
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 492
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Book Description
This book presents some of the most important papers published in Palgrave’s Journal of Operational Research relating to the use of System Dynamics (SD) in the context of Operational Research (OR). Giving the reader an in-depth understanding of significant features of the research area which have grown over the last 20 years: applications in the management field; methodologies; policies at industry level; and healthcare, this book is an invaluable read for those who do not have any prior expertise in the field. Split into four parts, the collection covers the broad use of SD in the field of management, focuses on the use of modelling in supply chains and at industry level, and presents an analysis of the use of SD in its most promising area, healthcare. Not only does this work provide a detailed overview of the field of SD, but it will also offer vital insights into potential research avenues for the future considering the use of SD as a soft OR and hard OR method.
Author: Michael P. Clements
Publisher: OUP USA
ISBN: 0195398645
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 732
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Book Description
Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic theory to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models.
Author: Matthias Seifert
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3031300858
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 321
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Book Description
This book highlights research on the behavioral biases affecting judgmental accuracy in judgmental forecasting and showcases the state-of-the-art in judgment-based predictive analytics. In recent years, technological advancements have made it possible to use predictive analytics to exploit highly complex (big) data resources. Consequently, modern forecasting methodologies are based on sophisticated algorithms from the domain of machine learning and deep learning. However, research shows that in the majority of industry contexts, human judgment remains an indispensable component of the managerial forecasting process. This book discusses ways in which decision-makers can address human behavioral issues in judgmental forecasting. The book begins by introducing readers to the notion of human-machine interactions. This includes a look at the necessity of managerial judgment in situations where organizations commonly have algorithmic decision support models at their disposal. The remainder of the book is divided into three parts, with Part I focusing on the role of individual-level judgment in the design and utilization of algorithmic models. The respective chapters cover individual-level biases such as algorithm aversion, model selection criteria, model-judgment aggregation issues and implications for behavioral change. In turn, Part II addresses the role of collective judgments in predictive analytics. The chapters focus on issues related to talent spotting, performance-weighted aggregation, and the wisdom of timely crowds. Part III concludes the book by shedding light on the importance of contextual factors as critical determinants of forecasting performance. Its chapters discuss the usefulness of scenario analysis, the role of external factors in time series forecasting and introduce the idea of mindful organizing as an approach to creating more sustainable forecasting practices in organizations.
Author: Dominique M. Hanssens
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9781402073687
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 524
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Book Description
This second edition of Market Response Models: -places much more emphasis on the basic building blocks of market response modeling: markets, data, and sales drivers, through a separate chapter. -splits the design of response models into separate chapters on static and dynamic models. -discusses techniques and findings spawned by the marketing information revolution, e.g., scanner data. -emphasizes new insights available on marketing sales drivers, especially improved understanding of sales promotion. -demonstrates methodological developments to assess long-term impacts, where present, of current marketing efforts. -includes a new chapter on sales forecasting. -adds mini-case histories in the form of boxed inserts entitled Industry Perspectives, which are primarily written by business executives. This book is truly the foundation of market response modeling.
Author: Philip Hans Franses
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1009428047
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 309
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Book Description
Econometricians make choices on data, models, and estimation routines. Using various examples, this book shows the consequences of choices.
Author: Carlo Martini
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319085514
Category : Philosophy
Languages : en
Pages : 309
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Book Description
This book brings together the research of philosophers, sociologists, and social scientists. It examines those areas of scientific practice where reliance on the subjective judgment of experts and practitioners is the main source of useful knowledge to address and possibly, bring solutions to social problems. A common phenomenon in applications of science is that objective evidence does not point to a single answer or solution, to a problem. Reliance on subjective judgment, then, becomes necessary, despite the known fact that hunches, even those of putative experts, often provide information that is not very accurate, and that experts are prone to fallacies and biases. The book looks at how experts reach consensus in the social sciences, and which experts are relevant to which problems. It aims to answer many questions, the main one being: Can we start building a normative theory of expertise on the basis of the evidence that social scientists, sociologists and philosophers have uncovered?
Author: Martin K. Starr
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
ISBN: 1317419243
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 769
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Book Description
This remarkable volume highlights the importance of Production and Operations Management (POM) as a field of study and research contributing to substantial business and social growth. The editors emphasize how POM works with a range of systems—agriculture, disaster management, e-commerce, healthcare, hospitality, military systems, not-for-profit, retail, sports, sustainability, telecommunications, and transport—and how it contributes to the growth of each. Martin K. Starr and Sushil K. Gupta gather an international team of experts to provide researchers and students with a panoramic vision of the field. Divided into eight parts, the book presents the history of POM, and establishes the foundation upon which POM has been built while also revisiting and revitalizing topics that have long been essential. It examines the significance of processes and projects to the fundamental growth of the POM field. Critical emerging themes and new research are examined with open minds and this is followed by opportunities to interface with other business functions. Finally, the next era is discussed in ways that combine practical skill with philosophy in its analysis of POM, including traditional and nontraditional applications, before concluding with the editors’ thoughts on the future of the discipline. Students of POM will find this a comprehensive, definitive resource on the state of the discipline and its future directions.
Author: Robert C. Blattberg
Publisher: Harvard Business Review Press
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 392
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Book Description
Table of Contents
Author: Wolfgang Lutz
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0192542842
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 777
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Book Description
Condensed into a detailed analysis and a selection of continent-wide datasets, this revised edition of World Population & Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century addresses the role of educational attainment in global population trends and models. Presenting the full chapter text of the original edition alongside a concise selection of data, it summarizes past trends in fertility, mortality, migration, and education, and examines relevant theories to identify key determining factors. Deriving from a global survey of hundreds of experts and five expert meetings on as many continents, World Population & Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century: An Overview emphasizes alternative trends in human capital, new ways of studying ageing and the quantification of alternative population, and education pathways in the context of global sustainable development. It is an ideal companion to the county specific online Wittgenstein Centre Data Explorer.
