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Author: Samuel J. Best
Publisher: SAGE
ISBN: 1608717410
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 329
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Book Description
Explores the trends in longitudinal variables asked in the national Election Day exit polls from their beginning in 1972 to the present. The book documents comparable survey items that have appeared in multiple exit polls over time. --from publisher description.
Author: Samuel J. Best
Publisher: SAGE
ISBN: 1608717410
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 329
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Book Description
Explores the trends in longitudinal variables asked in the national Election Day exit polls from their beginning in 1972 to the present. The book documents comparable survey items that have appeared in multiple exit polls over time. --from publisher description.
Author: Wolfgang Donsbach
Publisher: SAGE
ISBN: 1446206513
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 641
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Book Description
′Some of the most experienced and thoughtful research experts in the world have contributed to this comprehensive Handbook, which should have a place on every serious survey researcher′s bookshelf′ - Sir Robert Worcester, Founder of MORI and President of WAPOR ′82-′84. ′This is the book I have been waiting for. It not only reflects the state of the art, but will most likely also shape public opinion on public opinion research′ - Olof Petersson, Professor of political science, SNS, Stockholm, Sweden ′The Handbook of Public Opinion Research is very authoritative, well organized, and sensitive to key issues in opinion research around the world. It will be my first choice as a general reference book for orienting users and training producers of opinion polls in Southeast Asia′ - Mahar K. Mangahas, Ph.D., President of Social Weather Stations, Philippines (www.sws.org.ph) ′This is the most comprehensive book on public opinion research to date′ - Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Secretary-Treasurer, World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR); Director of Public Opinion Programme, The University of Hong Kong Public opinion theory and research are becoming increasingly significant in modern societies as people′s attitudes and behaviours become ever more volatile and opinion poll data becomes ever more readily available. This major new Handbook is the first to bring together into one volume the whole field of public opinion theory, research methodology, and the political and social embeddedness of polls in modern societies. It comprehensively maps out the state-of-the-art in contemporary scholarship on these topics. With over fifty chapters written by distinguished international researchers, both academic and from the commercial sector, this Handbook is designed to: - give the reader an overview of the most important concepts included in and surrounding the term ′public opinion′ and its application in modern social research - present the basic empirical concepts for assessing public opinion and opinion changes in society - provide an overview of the social, political and legal status of public opinion research, how it is perceived by the public and by journalists, and how it is used by governments - offer a review of the role and use of surveys for selected special fields of application, ranging from their use in legal cases to the use of polls in marketing and campaigns. The Handbook of Public Opinion Research provides an indispensable resource for both practitioners and students alike.
Author: Richard Charnin
Publisher: AuthorHouse
ISBN: 1452006660
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 460
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Book Description
In 2004, John Kerry appeared to be a clear winner based on the exit polls. But the recorded vote counts deviated sharply from the polls and were too one-sided to attribute to mere chance. The political pundits claimed the polls “behaved badly”, calling the three million Bush margin a “mandate”. They failed to report the impossible late adjustments made to the National, Florida and Ohio exit polls that were necessary to force them to match the recorded vote. Spreadsheet-wielding Internet bloggers analyzed the statistical anomalies. Online election forums were aflame with debates about state and national pre-election and exit polls, Bush approval ratings, margins of error, non-response, past vote recall, correlation between vote swing from 2000 and the exit poll shift, the counter-intuitive Bush gain over his 2000 vote share in urban locations compared to the decline in rural areas (the "Urban Legend"). But the “Smoking Gun” was the Final National Exit Poll, which indicated that there were four million more returning Bush 2000 voters than were alive in 2004. This “phantom voter” anomaly has never been discussed by pundits in the media or political scientists in academia, even though similar anomalies occurred in 1988, 1992 and 2008. The media pundits still claim that the recorded vote is correct (and the exit polls wrong) despite millions of uncounted votes in every election. This book is a comprehensive resource for analyzing presidential elections from 1968 to 2008, including the 2006 midterms. It is written for readers of virtually all backgrounds. The only requirement is an inquisitive, open mind. The True Vote is estimated using basic statistical modeling that is for some reason avoided in the media and academia. Internet links to several election analysis spreadsheet models are provided in the book and are free to download.
Author: W. Joseph Campbell
Publisher: Univ of California Press
ISBN: 0520397827
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 366
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Book Description
This update of a lively, first-of-its-kind study of polling misfires and fiascoes in U.S. presidential campaigns takes up pollsters’ failure over the decades to offer accurate assessments of the most important of American elections. Lost in a Gallup tells the story of polling flops and failures in presidential elections since 1936. Polls do go bad, as outcomes in 2020, 2016, 2012, 2004, and 2000 all remind us. This updated edition includes a new chapter and conclusion that address the 2020 polling surprise and considers whether polls will get it right in 2024. As author W. Joseph Campbell discusses, polling misfires in presidential elections are not all alike. Pollsters have anticipated tight elections when landslides have occurred. They have pointed to the wrong winner in closer elections. Misleading state polls have thrown off expected national outcomes. Polling failure also can lead to media error. Journalists covering presidential races invariably take their lead from polls. When polls go bad, media narratives can be off-target as well. Lost in a Gallup encourages readers to treat election polls with healthy skepticism, recognizing that they could be wrong.
Author: Samuel J. Best
Publisher: CQ Press
ISBN: 145223440X
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 329
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Book Description
Every two years, exit polls become the most widely analyzed, written about, and discussed data-set in the United States. Although exit polls are known for their use in predicting elections, they are in fact the best tool for explaining election results. Exit polls are taken from actual voters, whereas pre-election polls that tally people’s intended votes tend to overstate the number of people who will actually go to the polls. Exit Polls: Surveying the American Electorate is a groundbreaking new reference work that explores for the first time the trends in longitudinal variables asked in the national Election Day exit polls from their beginning in 1972 to the present. The book documents comparable survey items that have appeared in multiple exit polls over time. Authors Samuel J. Best and Brian S. Krueger—both election commentators for CBS news and statistical experts—present more than 100 tables and 100 figures showing the changes in the American electorate and its voting patterns over time. This work represents the first time exit poll data has been combined to show trends over time. Chapter one: The Exit Poll Phenomenon provides a brief history of exit polls and chronicles how they evolved into their current arrangement. It explains how exit poll questions are developed, the sampling and weighting procedures used, the reporting protocols adopted, and the benefits and limitations of exit polls. Chapter two: Creating and Using Exit Poll Time Series describes how individual exit polls were compiled into a first of its kind cumulative data file and discusses the rationale for selecting specific survey items. The chapter explains the techniques used to merge the data and discusses the framework used to present the data in the subsequent chapters. Chapter three: Composition of Voters in Federal Elections focuses on changes in the demographic and ideological composition of the electorate over almost forty years, including gender, age, race, sexual orientation, education, income, religion, party membership, and military service. Chapter four: The Presidential Voting Preferences of the Active Electorate examines the presidential voting patterns of the various groups that make up the American electorate, from 1972 to 2010. Chapter five: The Congressional Voting Preferences of the Active Electorate examines the congressional voting patterns of the various groups that make up the American electorate from 1972 to 2010. Offering unique insight into the American electorate, this important new work is meant to serve novice and expert researchers alike. Libraries with holdings in American politics and government will want to acquire this one-of-a-kind resource.
Author: Mark Pack
Publisher: Reaktion Books
ISBN: 1789145686
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 353
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Book Description
From a political-polling expert, an eye-opening—and hilarious—look at the origins of polls and how they have been used and abused ever since. Opinion polls dominate media coverage of politics, especially elections. But how do the polls work? How do we tell the good from the bad? And in light of recent polling disasters, can we trust them at all? Polling UnPacked gives us the full story, from the first rudimentary polls in the nineteenth century, through attempts by politicians to ban polling in the twentieth century, to the very latest techniques and controversies from the last few years. Equal parts enlightening and hilarious, the book requires no prior knowledge of polling or statistics to understand. But even hardened pollsters will find much to enjoy, from how polling has been used to help plan military invasions to why an exhausted interviewer was accidentally instrumental in inventing exit polls. Written by a former political pollster and the creator of Britain’s foremost polling-intention database, Polling UnPacked reveals which opinion polls to trust, which to ignore, and which, frankly, to laugh at. It will change the way we see political coverage forever.
Author: Michael A. Genovese
Publisher: State University of New York Press
ISBN: 0791485099
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 205
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Book Description
This hard-hitting and engaging examination of polls and American politics asks an essential question: do polls contribute to the vitality of our democracy or are they undermining the health of our political system? Leading scholars address several key issues such as how various types of polls affect democracy, the meaning attributed to polling data by citizens and the media, the use of polls by presidents, and how political elites respond—or do not respond—to public polls. The contributors assert that while polls tread a fine line between informing and manipulating the public, they remain valuable so long as a robust democracy obliges its political leaders to respond to the expressed will of the people.
Author: Steve Phillips
Publisher: The New Press
ISBN: 1620973251
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 259
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Book Description
The New York Times and Washington Post bestseller that sparked a national conversation about America's new progressive, multiracial majority, updated to include data from the 2016 election With a new preface and afterword by the author When it first appeared in the lead-up to the 2016 election, Brown Is the New White helped spark a national discussion of race and electoral politics and the often-misdirected spending priorities of the Democratic party. This "slim yet jam-packed call to action" (Booklist) contained a "detailed, data-driven illustration of the rapidly increasing number of racial minorities in America" (NBC News) and their significance in shaping our political future. Completely revised and updated to address the aftermath of the 2016 election, this first paperback edition of Brown Is the New White doubles down on its original insights. Attacking the "myth of the white swing voter" head-on, Steve Phillips, named one of "America's Top 50 Influencers" by Campaigns & Elections, closely examines 2016 election results against a long backdrop of shifts in the electoral map over the past generation—arguing that, now more than ever, hope for a more progressive political future lies not with increased advertising to middle-of-the-road white voters, but with cultivating America's growing, diverse majority. Emerging as a respected and clear-headed commentator on American politics at a time of pessimism and confusion among Democrats, Phillips offers a stirring answer to anyone who thinks the immediate future holds nothing but Trump and Republican majorities.
Author: Richard Charnin
Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
ISBN: 9781480077034
Category : Elections
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Without fair elections, there is no democracy. A thorough analysis of state and national exit polls has revealed discrepancies that are mathematically impossible. Informing the average voter of these anomalies is the goal of this book.
Author: Mark Hertzog
Publisher: NYU Press
ISBN: 0814744826
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 288
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Book Description
Traces the influences of lesbian, gay and bisexual voters in American elections In the half century since the Stonewall riots in New York City's Greenwich Village launched the national gay-rights movement in earnest, LGB voters have steadily expanded their political influence. The Lavender Vote is the first full- length examination of lesbians, gay men, and bisexuals as a factor in American elections. Mark Hertzog here describes the differences in demographics, attitudes, and voting behavior between self-identified bisexuals and homosexuals and the rest of the voting population. He shows that lavender self-identifiers comprise a distinctive voting bloc equal in numbers to Latino voters, more liberal across the board on domestic social issues (though not necessarily on economic or national security issues) than non-gay voters, and extremely unified in high-salience elections. Further, lavender voters, contrary to popular belief, are up for grabs between the two major parties. Offering a clear and thorough explanation of LGB voting tendencies, this volume will be must-reading for elected officials, candidates for office, and all those interested in learning about LGB voters.
