Estimating Stochastic Volatility Models Using Predictionbased Estimating Functions PDF Download
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Author: Asger Lunde
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Author: Asger Lunde
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Author: Makoto Takahashi
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 981990935X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 120
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Book Description
This treatise delves into the latest advancements in stochastic volatility models, highlighting the utilization of Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations for estimating model parameters and forecasting the volatility and quantiles of financial asset returns. The modeling of financial time series volatility constitutes a crucial aspect of finance, as it plays a vital role in predicting return distributions and managing risks. Among the various econometric models available, the stochastic volatility model has been a popular choice, particularly in comparison to other models, such as GARCH models, as it has demonstrated superior performance in previous empirical studies in terms of fit, forecasting volatility, and evaluating tail risk measures such as Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall. The book also explores an extension of the basic stochastic volatility model, incorporating a skewed return error distribution and a realized volatility measurement equation. The concept of realized volatility, a newly established estimator of volatility using intraday returns data, is introduced, and a comprehensive description of the resulting realized stochastic volatility model is provided. The text contains a thorough explanation of several efficient sampling algorithms for latent log volatilities, as well as an illustration of parameter estimation and volatility prediction through empirical studies utilizing various asset return data, including the yen/US dollar exchange rate, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the Nikkei 225 stock index. This publication is highly recommended for readers with an interest in the latest developments in stochastic volatility models and realized stochastic volatility models, particularly in regards to financial risk management.
Author: Jaya P. N. Bishwal
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3031038614
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 634
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Book Description
This book develops alternative methods to estimate the unknown parameters in stochastic volatility models, offering a new approach to test model accuracy. While there is ample research to document stochastic differential equation models driven by Brownian motion based on discrete observations of the underlying diffusion process, these traditional methods often fail to estimate the unknown parameters in the unobserved volatility processes. This text studies the second order rate of weak convergence to normality to obtain refined inference results like confidence interval, as well as nontraditional continuous time stochastic volatility models driven by fractional Levy processes. By incorporating jumps and long memory into the volatility process, these new methods will help better predict option pricing and stock market crash risk. Some simulation algorithms for numerical experiments are provided.
Author: Yacine Ait-Sahalia
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 0080929842
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 809
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Book Description
This collection of original articles—8 years in the making—shines a bright light on recent advances in financial econometrics. From a survey of mathematical and statistical tools for understanding nonlinear Markov processes to an exploration of the time-series evolution of the risk-return tradeoff for stock market investment, noted scholars Yacine Aït-Sahalia and Lars Peter Hansen benchmark the current state of knowledge while contributors build a framework for its growth. Whether in the presence of statistical uncertainty or the proven advantages and limitations of value at risk models, readers will discover that they can set few constraints on the value of this long-awaited volume. Presents a broad survey of current research—from local characterizations of the Markov process dynamics to financial market trading activity Contributors include Nobel Laureate Robert Engle and leading econometricians Offers a clarity of method and explanation unavailable in other financial econometrics collections
Author: Chiara Monfardini
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Econometric models
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Author: Petra Posedel
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Author: Vickneswary Tagore
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Finance
Languages : en
Pages : 220
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Author: Jason Fink
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 23
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Book Description
Estimation of option pricing models in which the underlying asset exhibits stochastic volatility presents complicated econometric questions. One such question, thus far unstudied, is whether the inclusion of information derived from hedging relationships implied by an option pricing model may be used in conjunction with pricing information to provide more reliable parameter estimates than the use of pricing information alone. This paper estimates, using a simple least-squares procedure, the stochastic volatility model of Heston (1993), and includes hedging information in the objective function. This hedging information enters the objective function through a weighting parameter that is chosen optimally within the model. With the weight appropriately chosen, we find that incorporating the hedging information reduces both the out-of-sample hedging and pricing errors associated with the Heston model.
Author: Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 71
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Book Description
We propose a novel method to estimate dynamic equilibrium models with stochastic volatility. First, we characterize the properties of the solution to this class of models. Second, we take advantage of the results about the structure of the solution to build a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm to evaluate the likelihood function of the model. The approach, which exploits the profusion of shocks in stochastic volatility models, is versatile and computationally tractable even in large-scale models, such as those often employed by policy-making institutions. As an application, we use our algorithm and Bayesian methods to estimate a business cycle model of the U.S. economy with both stochastic volatility and parameter drifting in monetary policy. Our application shows the importance of stochastic volatility in accounting for the dynamics of the data.
Author: Eckhard Platen
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 364213694X
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 868
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Book Description
In financial and actuarial modeling and other areas of application, stochastic differential equations with jumps have been employed to describe the dynamics of various state variables. The numerical solution of such equations is more complex than that of those only driven by Wiener processes, described in Kloeden & Platen: Numerical Solution of Stochastic Differential Equations (1992). The present monograph builds on the above-mentioned work and provides an introduction to stochastic differential equations with jumps, in both theory and application, emphasizing the numerical methods needed to solve such equations. It presents many new results on higher-order methods for scenario and Monte Carlo simulation, including implicit, predictor corrector, extrapolation, Markov chain and variance reduction methods, stressing the importance of their numerical stability. Furthermore, it includes chapters on exact simulation, estimation and filtering. Besides serving as a basic text on quantitative methods, it offers ready access to a large number of potential research problems in an area that is widely applicable and rapidly expanding. Finance is chosen as the area of application because much of the recent research on stochastic numerical methods has been driven by challenges in quantitative finance. Moreover, the volume introduces readers to the modern benchmark approach that provides a general framework for modeling in finance and insurance beyond the standard risk-neutral approach. It requires undergraduate background in mathematical or quantitative methods, is accessible to a broad readership, including those who are only seeking numerical recipes, and includes exercises that help the reader develop a deeper understanding of the underlying mathematics.
