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Author: Patrick Blagrave
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475544936
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 32
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Book Description
Using a multivariate filter, we estimate potential growth rates in Chile’s mining and non-mining sectors. Estimates for the mining sector incorporate information on copper prices, whereas estimates for non-mining reflect information on inflation and unemployment rates. To better understand the drivers of potential growth, we decompose estimates into capital, labor (adjusted for human-capital and hours worked), and total-factor productivity using a production-function. Our estimates of potential output in Chile suggest that an important part of the recent growth slowdown has been structural, with potential-output growth slowing to 21⁄2 percent in recent years, although it plausibly could be higher in the medium-term.
Author: Patrick Blagrave
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475544936
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 32
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Book Description
Using a multivariate filter, we estimate potential growth rates in Chile’s mining and non-mining sectors. Estimates for the mining sector incorporate information on copper prices, whereas estimates for non-mining reflect information on inflation and unemployment rates. To better understand the drivers of potential growth, we decompose estimates into capital, labor (adjusted for human-capital and hours worked), and total-factor productivity using a production-function. Our estimates of potential output in Chile suggest that an important part of the recent growth slowdown has been structural, with potential-output growth slowing to 21⁄2 percent in recent years, although it plausibly could be higher in the medium-term.
Author: Leandro Medina
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 145521180X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 16
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Book Description
This paper estimates the potential output (and the output gap) in Chile using several different methodologies. After a structural brake in 1998, the average growth rate of potential output in Chile declined from over 7 percent to 3-4 percent in the aggregate economy, but to less than 2 percent in the natural resource sector. The contributions to aggregate potential output growth of the natural resource sector and the non-natural resource sector are estimated, finding that the contribution to growth of the natural resource sector is non-linear-increasing during the 1990s, declining during the 2000s, and turning negative in the mid-2000s-despite the monotonic decrease in the share of natural resource output in aggregate output.
Author: Mr.Jorge Roldos
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451947976
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 26
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Book Description
This paper estimates potential output and the sources of growth in Chile during 1970-96. Actual output is cointegrated with the quality-adjusted measures of capital and labor, and constant returns to scale cannot be rejected. The estimates of potential output show a positive output gap in the years when the Chilean economy was deemed to be overheated. In 1986-90, the quality-adjusted labor variable explains close to 60 percent of the growth rate of GDP, while during 1991-95 capital formation plays a dominant role. The contribution of TFP growth in Chile is relatively small, but, based on a comparison with European and East Asian experiences, it is expected to increase in the medium term.
Author: Jorge E. Roldos
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 26
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Book Description
This paper estimates potential output and the sources of growth in Chile during 1970-96. Actual output is cointegrated with the quality-adjusted measures of capital and labor, and constant returns to scale cannot be rejected. The estimates of potential output show a positive output gap in the years when the Chilean economy was deemed to be overheated. In 1986-90, the quality-adjusted labor variable explains close to 60 percent of the growth rate of GDP, while during 1991-95 capital formation plays a dominant role. The contribution of TFP growth in Chile is relatively small, but, based on a comparison with European and East Asian experiences, it is expected to increase in the medium term.
Author: Gabriela Contreras M.
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Chile
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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Book Description
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451807457
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 94
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Book Description
This paper examines the sources of growth in Chile and compares Chile’s experience with that of other countries. Two alternative measures of the sources of growth for Chile are presented to facilitate comparisons with other studies. The first measure adjusts factor inputs for the degree of utilization (using the unemployment rate), and the second measure introduces an index of the quality of factor inputs. The paper presents estimates of potential output of Chile for 1971–95, and also discusses the projections of potential output growth for Chile over the medium term.
Author: J. Rodrigo Fuentes
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Monetary policy
Languages : en
Pages : 29
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Book Description
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455211672
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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Book Description
This paper develops a simple model for measuring potential output that uses data on inflation, unemployment, and capacity utilization. We apply the model to 10 countries, in addition to the United States and the euro area. While there is a substantial amount of uncertainty around our estimates, we find that the financial crisis has resulted in a reduction in potential output.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ISBN: 9781451807585
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 175
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Book Description
This paper presents four studies on selected issues of the Chilean economy. The new framework for fiscal policy represented by the authorities' target of a central government structural surplus of 1 percent of GDP is also discussed. This study examines whether the variance of the cyclical component of output in Chile and 11 other countries increased during the 1990s, a period during which the variance of inflation declined. The alternative measures of potential output for Chile are also estimated.
Author: Valerie Cerra
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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Book Description
This paper reviews a number of different methods that can be used to estimate potential output and the output gap. Measures of potential output and the output gap are useful to help identify the scope for sustainable noninflationary growth and to allow an assessment of the stance of macroeconomic policies. The paper then compares results from some of these methods to the case of Sweden, showing the range of estimates.
