Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy PDF full book. Access full book title Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy by Ali Alichi. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: Ali Alichi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484366328
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 31
Get Book Here
Book Description
Estimates of potential output and the neutral short-term interest rate play important roles in policy making. However, such estimates are associated with significant uncertainty and subject to significant revisions. This paper extends the structural multivariate filter methodology by adding a monetary policy block, which allows estimating the neutral rate of interest for the U.S. economy. The addition of the monetary policy block further improves the reliability of the structural multivariate filter.
Author: Ali Alichi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484366328
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 31
Get Book Here
Book Description
Estimates of potential output and the neutral short-term interest rate play important roles in policy making. However, such estimates are associated with significant uncertainty and subject to significant revisions. This paper extends the structural multivariate filter methodology by adding a monetary policy block, which allows estimating the neutral rate of interest for the U.S. economy. The addition of the monetary policy block further improves the reliability of the structural multivariate filter.
Author: Albert J. Eckstein
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 44
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451952171
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 65
Get Book Here
Book Description
The methodology used in this paper has three distinguishing features: the natural rate of unemployment and potential output are jointly estimated; estimation integrates wage and price data with “real” and structural data; and third, the methodology encompasses many of the methods found in the literature. The results indicate that potential output growth has recovered somewhat during the early 1980s, but remains below the rapid rates of increase in the late 1960s. The natural rate, after rising during the late 1960s and the 1970s, is found to have declined in the 1980s. The paper concludes with an assessment of medium-term prospects for potential output and-the natural rate.
Author: Salma Ahmed
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Interest rates
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Get Book Here
Book Description
"We present the annual update of Bank of Canada staff estimates for global potential output growth and the US neutral rate of interest. Both estimates serve as key inputs to the analysis in the April 2023 Monetary Policy Report"--Summary, page 1.
Author: Sebastian Hauptmeier
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3790821764
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 201
Get Book Here
Book Description
In spite of the widespread use of the concept of potential output in economic theory and empirical applications as well as in economic policy debates, the historical background and the assumptions inherent to this concept are rarely made transparent, let alone critically questioned. Against this background this book sets out to determine the extent to which the concept of potential output rests on clearly defined theoretical foundations and how far prevailing empirical quantification methods really provide reliable insights into potential output growth of an economy. In addition, the authors examine alternative methods for a forward-looking assessment of potential output growth.
Author: Albert J. Eckstein
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: Ali Alichi
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781513572802
Category : Industrial productivity
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Get Book Here
Book Description
The gap between potential and actual output---the output gap---is a key variable for policymaking. This paper adapts the methodology developed in Blagrave and others (2015) to estimate the path of output gap in the U.S. economy. The results show that the output gap has considerably shrunk since the Great Recession, but still remains negative. While the results are more robust than other existing methodologies, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the estimates. --Abstract.
Author: Ali Alichi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484398068
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 35
Get Book Here
Book Description
This paper extends the multivariate filter approach of estimating potential output developed by Alichi and others (2018) to incorporate labor market hysteresis. This extension captures the idea that long and deep recessions (expansions) cause persistent damage (improvement) to the labor market, thereby reducing (increasing) potential output. Applying the model to U.S. data results in significantly smaller estimates of output gaps, and higher estimates of the NAIRU, after the global financial crisis, compared to estimates without hysteresis. The smaller output gaps partly explain the absence of persistent deflation despite the slow recovery during 2010-2017. Going forward, if strong growth performance continues well beyond 2018, hysteresis is expected to result in a structural improvement in growth and employment.
Author: George A. Kahn
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Get Book Here
Book Description
Using an Okun's law framework, the analysis here estimates potential growth for the 1990s as measured by both fixed- and chain-weighted GDP. It then decomposes estimated potential growth rates into labor productivity growth (LPG) and labor input growth (LIG) using a regression analysis to separate secular from cyclical changes. It compares estimates of potential output and trend productivity growth for the 1990s with estimates from earlier periods. Results indicate that eliminating the substitution bias associated with fixed-weight measures of real GDP raises estimated potential GDP growth in the 1980s but lowers it in the 1990s. A slowdown in labor force growth, with little or no change in long-term productivity growth, largely accounts for the implied slowdown in potential growth.
Author: Patrick Blagrave
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475565135
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 30
Get Book Here
Book Description
Estimates of potential output are an important ingredient of structured forecasting and policy analysis. Using information on consensus forecasts, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by Benes and others (2010). Although the estimates in real time are more robust relative to those of naïve statistical filters, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the estimates. The paper presents estimates for 16 countries and provides an example of how the filtered estimates at the end of the sample period can be improved with additional information.
