Author: Shruti Mishra
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Languages : en
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It was also shown that the degree of these effects depends on the demand parameters, such as elasticity and superelasticity. We estimate these parameters in a novel format using an empirical procedure called Granular IV, which was first described in Gabaix and Koijen (2020) and makes use of the fact that in reality, unlike baseline macroeconomic models, some firms are big enough to impact the aggregates. For this estimation, we use firm-level price data from ACNielsen Retail Scanner database. Employing the novel empirical approach we estimate these relevant demand parameters. We estimate a demand elasticity of 3.23, in line with the literature. Our estimate for super elasticity is 3.74 which is in line with Marshall's second law of demand and for constant superelasticity parametrisation would signify the curvature of the demand curve between that of CES and linear demand.
Author: Nobuhide Okahata
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Category : Macroeconomics
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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In these essays, I study the implications of macroeconomic policies under the environment with rich heterogeneities of economic agents. The analyses in these essays highlight that income and wealth inequality among agents could change the responses of macroeconomic policies and large aggregate shocks from those in the representative agent models. These results could modify our understanding of economic dynamics and the effect of macroeconomic policies. As an illustration, I focus on the monetary policy in a closed economy model and capital controls in an open economy model. I also develop a new nonlinear and global numerical solution method to analyze a class of heterogeneous-agent macroeconomic models. In the first chapter, ''An Alternative Solution Method for Continuous-Time Heterogeneous Agent Models with Aggregate Shocks'', I propose an alternative solution method for continuous-time heterogeneous agent models with aggregate shocks by extending the Backward Induction method developed initially for discrete-time models by Reiter (2010). The existing methods commonly used in the literature essentially rely on the local linearization and are only applicable to the problems where certainty equivalence with respect to aggregate shocks holds. On the other hand, the proposed method is nonlinear and global with respect to both idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks and thus suitable to investigate models where large aggregate shocks exist or nonlinearity matters. I apply this method to solve a Krusell and Smith (1998) economy and evaluate its performance along two dimensions: accuracy and computation speed. I find that the proposed method is accurate even with large aggregate shocks and high curvature without surrendering computation speed (the baseline economy is solved within a few seconds). This new method is also applied to a model with recursive utility and an Overlapping Generations (OLG) model, and it is able to solve both models quickly and accurately. In the second chapter, ''Consumption Inequality and Monetary Policy in a Heterogeneous-Agent New Keynesian Model'', I consider a continuous-time heterogenous-agent New Keynesian model with the wealth effect of the labor supply and study quantitative implications of additional insurance mechanisms available to the households. Our numerical experiment illustrates cross-sectional consumption inequality increases after a contractionary monetary policy shock which is consistent with the previous empirical result while it contradicts with predictions of the model without the wealth effect of the labor supply. Furthermore, consumption response to contractionary monetary policy shock is dampened, and a cross-sectional average of utilities decreases while the opposite is true in the model without wealth effect. These results suggest that propagation of monetary policy shock to the aggregate variables and welfare depends critically on additional insurance instruments available to agents. The third chapter, ''Capital Controls under Income Heterogeneity'', studies the welfare implication of capital controls under the small open economy model with the idiosyncratic income risks and the borrowing constraints. A calibrated model computes the change in welfare for different levels of capital controls. Compared to the recent studies, welfare gain of capital controls becomes small under agent income heterogeneity. For the economy with low borrowing capacity, capital controls become more effective compared to the baseline case.
Author:
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ISBN: 9781303817540
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 96
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This dissertation sets theme to point out the importance of disaggregated data in financial economic research. The main chapter of the dissertation uses Thailand as a case study to analyze impacts of a monetary policy shock on rural economies, in which households have limited access to formal financial markets. We find large effects, both real and financial, on the rural households, which imply existence of monetary policy transmitting channels other than the traditional interest-rate and credit channels through a formal financial system. More importantly, our results show that shallow financial markets in the rural economies actually help amplify the real effects of a contractionary monetary policy shock, because households cannot borrow against such shock. In addition, we document heterogeneous effects of a tightening monetary policy shock across provinces and occupational activities. For better insight to monetary policy transmission mechanism, hence, microeconomic data are imperative inputs for investigating effects of monetary policy at disaggregated levels, which can be different from overall macroeconomic impacts. The other part of the dissertation provides a survey of recent literature related to financial flow of funds among sectors within an economy and discusses possible improvement on flow of funds data and research.
Author: Kerstin Hallsten
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ISBN: 9789171539847
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 111
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Author: Alessandro Secchi
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ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 111
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Author: Chang Liu
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Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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This dissertation studies macroeconomics with regional heterogeneity in three general dimensions. First, it documents some novel empirical patterns of regional heterogeneity (in Chapter 1, 2, 3). Second, these empirical facts are used to identify key economic forces underlying theoretical models (in Chapter 1 and 3). Third, aggregate implications of regional heterogeneity are also studied (in Chapter 1). In the first chapter of this dissertation, I highlight time-varying regional risk and federal fiscal transfer policy as two competing forces driving regional risk sharing over the business cycle and in turn quantify their impacts on aggregate fluctuations. I find that during an economic downturn, increased regional risk worsens risk sharing and amplifies the impact of aggregate productivity shocks. However, state-contingent federal government transfers provide additional risk sharing and help stabilize the aggregate economy, by providing insurance to the regions that need it the most. In the second chapter (joint with Noah Williams), we first estimate a quarterly dataset for state-level aggregates by building a novel empirical framework that allows for mixed-frequency raw data with measurement errors. We then apply this dataset to study the monetary policy effects at the state levels. We find that states behave remarkably homogeneous with each other in their responses of output and price to an unanticipated monetary policy shock. In the third chapter (joint with Noah Williams), we use the state-level quarterly dataset to analyze the impact of unexpected changes in federal personal and corporate income taxes. We find substantial heterogeneity in the impact of federal fiscal policy across states, with more than half having no significant response to the tax cuts. In addition, less capital-intensive states have larger responses to corporate tax cuts. Although puzzling in standard models, a model with corporate and non-corporate sectors is consistent with this evidence. Overall, our results suggest the importance of variation and reallocation across states in evaluating federal policy.
Author: Min Fang (Economist)
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ISBN:
Category : Housing
Languages : en
Pages : 147
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"This dissertation consists of essays addressing the macroeconomic outcomes of heterogeneous agent general equilibrium models with micro-level frictions. Each chapter employs both empirical and quantitative macroeconomic methods. The first chapter studies the impact of elevated volatility on the effectiveness of monetary policy on aggregate investment under firm-level capital adjustment costs. I argue that monetary policy is less effective at stimulating investment during periods of elevated volatility in firm-level TFP than during normal times. Empirically, I document that high volatility weakens investment responses to monetary stimulus. I then develop a heterogeneous firm New Keynesian model with lumpy investment to interpret these findings. In the model, non-convex capital adjustment costs create a sizable extensive margin of investment which is more sensitive to changes in both interest rate and volatility than the intensive margin. When volatility is high, firms tend to stay inactive at the extensive margin, so monetary stimulus motivates less investment at the extensive margin. I find that the quantitative implications of the model are primarily shaped by the specifications of the capital adjustment costs. Unlike much of the prior literature, I use the dynamic moments of investment to identify this key model element. Based on this parameterization, high volatility reduces the effectiveness of monetary stimulus for investment by 30%. This reduction is about half of what I find in the data. Therefore, the effect of monetary policy depends on both the lumpy nature of firm-level investment and fluctuations in volatility. The second chapter studies the role of migration and housing constraints in determining income inequality within and across Chinese cities. Combining microdata and a spatial equilibrium model, we quantify the impact of the massive spatial reallocation of workers and the rapid growth of housing costs on the national income distribution. We first show several stylized facts detailing the strong positive correlation between migration inflows, housing costs, and imputed income inequality among Chinese cities. We then build a spatial equilibrium model featuring workers with heterogeneous skills, housing constraints, and heterogeneous returns from housing ownership to explain these facts. Our quantitative results indicate that the reductions in migration costs and the disproportionate growth in productivity across cities and skills result in the observed massive migration flows. Combining with the tight land supply policy in big cities, the expansion of the housing demand causes the rapid growth of housing costs, and enlarges the inequality between local housing owners and migrants. The counterfactual analysis shows that if we redistribute land supply increment by migrant flow and increase land supply toward cities with more migrants, we could lower the within-city income inequality by 14% and the national income inequality by 18%. Meanwhile, we can simultaneously encourage more migration into higher productivity cities"--Pages vii-viii.
Author: Antzelos Kyriazis
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ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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This dissertation has three chapters. In the first chapter, I build a three-agent preferred-habitat New Keynesian (PHANK) model. I show that the fiscal multiplier decreases in the presence of countercyclical QE policies after a fiscal expansion since countercyclical QE implies that the central bank sells government bonds, leading to higher expected returns on these bonds, which in turn incentivizes the bondholders to save more. However, since bondholders save more, they consume less, and as a result, consumption inequality between the savers and the non-savers falls, but wealth inequality increases. The qualitative results are similar in a medium-scale heterogeneous agents New Keynesian (HANK) model. In the three-agent model, I also solve for the optimal fiscal and QE policies at the zero lower bound, and I find that both are expansionary. The optimal increase in central bank asset purchases allows the government to increase government spending by less relative to the case where QE follows a countercyclical rule, so lower tax revenues are needed. In the second chapter, I study how US QE programs affect the US economy and the emerging market economies regarding their macro aggregates and asset prices. First, using Bayesian VAR models, I find that expansionary QE has positive and statistically significant effects in the US economy and the emerging market economies; real GDP, real investment, the price level, and asset prices rise. However, in emerging market economies, the currencies appreciate, the current account-to-GDP ratios deteriorate, the money supply increases, and the government bond yields increase. Then, I build a two-country HANK model that matches the empirical responses. Through the model, I examine how wealth inequality evolves both in the US economy and in the emerging market economy after a positive QE shock. Wealth inequality increases in the short run but decreases over the medium run in both countries. Also, I study the effects of policies that aim to reduce the leverage in the financial sector of the emerging market economy, such as capital controls, and I find that this policy indeed reduces the capital flows and leverage. However, economic activity also falls, and the welfare effects are mixed across households.The last chapter resulted from my strong interest in digital assets that emerged during my last year in the program. In this chapter, which results from collaborative work with Iason Ofeidis, Georgios Palaiokrassas, and Leandros Tassiulas, we examine the effects of unexpected changes in US monetary policy on digital asset returns, and on DeFi-related variables such as borrowing rates, outstanding debt, and TVL. We also examine the effects that the FOMC statement releases and the Minutes releases have on the volatility of digital asset returns. Finally, we examine how DeFi activity evolves around the FOMC announcements. The results from this chapter show first that the returns on digital assets are significantly affected by the unexpected part of the FOMC announcements. The volatility of the returns is also significantly affected by the FOMC releases but less significantly affected by the Minutes releases. Second, the DeFi-related variables are also affected by unexpected changes in monetary policy. Lastly, we find that the most significant spikes in DeFi activity occur on the FOMC announcement days or days very close to the announcement days.
Author: Xu Zhang
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ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 138
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This dissertation studies the identification of monetary policy and the effects of monetary policy on the macroeconomy. Chapter 1 provides a new methodology to identify monetary policy shock. Federal Reserve announcements contain information about both economic fundamentals and monetary policy. My paper proposes to disentangle the information effects using Federal Reserve's forecasts about the macroeconomy and constructs a new measure of monetary policy shocks. The new shock series is consistent with the traditional view. Chapter 2 investigates the effects of unconventional monetary policy when the nominal interest rate reaches the zero lower bound. There are two types of monetary policy, i.e. forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases. I identify the separate contributions of each monetary policy shock to the effects on yield curve and macroeconomy. Chapter 3 studies the effects of monetary policy on the household behavior. I look at how households with heterogeneous balance sheet composition would make their decisions in response to monetary policy interventions, and to what extent and this could affect the aggregate economy. I provide empirical analysis using household-level data, and document empirical stylized facts that can be used to evaluate different theoretical transmission channels of monetary policy.
Author: Cheng Zhou
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Languages : en
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This dissertation analyzes the effects of monetary policy and fiscal policy from a state-dependent perspective. The first chapter is on the dynamic effect of monetary policy on asset price. Employing a two-state threshold local projection method, we find that when the Fed increases the Federal Funds rate, the stock price decreases in normal times, but increases during bubbly episodes. We allow time-varying risk premium and show that this result is driven by both the asymmetric effects on fundamentals and the existence of bubbles. Moreover, the paper captures the effect of an exogenous tightening monetary shock on stock prices as an increasing function of the size of bubbles, using a flexible semiparametric varying-coefficient model specification. The state-dependent evidence is more informative in measuring monetary policy effects than linear or time-varying methods, and is also robust to different identification schemes and various definitions of bubbles. This paper points out two important transmission channels of monetary policy on asset price: risk premium and asset bubbles, which are often ignored in theoretical models. On the policy side, our empirical analysis suggests that central banks should be cautious about adopting "leaning against bubble" monetary policies when the bubble size is relatively large. Another contribution is that we propose a novel empirical framework to study generalized state-dependent impulse response functions, a methodology which should have many applications in macroeconomics. The second chapter uses more than one hundred years of US historical data to examine the fiscal multiplier and how it may differ during different economic conditions. Using the flexible semiparametric varying coefficient method in the framework of local projections, we directly model the fiscal multiplier as a function of various state variables. The paper shows that the U.S. fiscal multiplier is slightly below one and approximately the same, during periods of slack as compared to normal times. Our results suggest that fiscal policy was not necessarily a more powerful tool to stimulate aggregate demand during the "Great Recession". The electronic version of this dissertation is accessible from http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/155721
