Engineering Reliability and Risk Analysis for Water Resources Investments PDF Download
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Author: Bruce R. Ellingwood
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Hydraulic structures
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
This report presents the results of a preliminary investigation of the feasibility of incorporating structural degradation into time-dependent reliability analysis of navigation infrastructure on inland and coastal waterways. An appraisal is presented of methodologies for engineering decision that might enable the owner/operator of a navigation facility to perform condition assessments, determine its economical remaining service life, and schedule routine maintenance and repair so as to minimize total operating costs without endangering public safety. The report is developed around the following specific research objectives: (1) Identify mathematical models to evaluate degradation in strength of navigation structures over time in terms of initial construction conditions, servicc load history, and aggressive environmental factors. (2) Develop a methodology to assess the probability that structural capacity has degraded below a specified level, taking into account initial conditions of the structure, service load history and structural aging, and deterioration. (3) Examine the role played by peridic inspection, nondestructive evaluation and maintenance in maintaining reliability and minimizing overall costs during a projected service period. This feasibility study is based on a review, synthesis and interpretation of existing procedures and data in the structural engineering, material science, and structural reliability literature. It provides a prospectus for subsequent research on reliabiity-based evaluation of navigation structures, some of which is initiating. (MM).
Author: Bruce R. Ellingwood
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Hydraulic structures
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
This report presents the results of a preliminary investigation of the feasibility of incorporating structural degradation into time-dependent reliability analysis of navigation infrastructure on inland and coastal waterways. An appraisal is presented of methodologies for engineering decision that might enable the owner/operator of a navigation facility to perform condition assessments, determine its economical remaining service life, and schedule routine maintenance and repair so as to minimize total operating costs without endangering public safety. The report is developed around the following specific research objectives: (1) Identify mathematical models to evaluate degradation in strength of navigation structures over time in terms of initial construction conditions, servicc load history, and aggressive environmental factors. (2) Develop a methodology to assess the probability that structural capacity has degraded below a specified level, taking into account initial conditions of the structure, service load history and structural aging, and deterioration. (3) Examine the role played by peridic inspection, nondestructive evaluation and maintenance in maintaining reliability and minimizing overall costs during a projected service period. This feasibility study is based on a review, synthesis and interpretation of existing procedures and data in the structural engineering, material science, and structural reliability literature. It provides a prospectus for subsequent research on reliabiity-based evaluation of navigation structures, some of which is initiating. (MM).
Author: Yacov Haimes
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1489921680
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 292
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Book Description
Ronald M. North President Universities Council on Water Resources People sense intuitively that the world in which we live is not free of risk. Every decision, every action, even the refusal to either act or decide involves some element of risk. Perhaps, because we accept relatively low levels of risk in our daily activi ties, we tend to minimize the existence of risk and thereby fail to include risk assessment in those decisions and actions which could be improved through a risk assessment process. However, our casual approach to risk assessment seems to stem largely from the diffi culties inherent in measuring risk rather than from any lack of cognizance of the existence of risk. This conclusion is evidenced by the many statements in official documents relating to planning and evaluation which suggest that risk assessments should be con ducted but do not provide the mechanism for such assessments nor do they encourage their consideration in the decision making process. This conference on Risk/Benefit Analysis in Water Resources Planning and Management is notable because it attempts to identify and evaluate the mechanisms available for risk assessment which might be useful in water resources planning and management efforts. These proceedings bring together the thoughts of professional per sons who have struggled with the problems of risk assessment and who have contributed to the refinement of both theoretical and pragmatic solutions for the improvement of risk assessment processes.
Author: L. Duckstein
Publisher: Springer
ISBN:
Category : Gardening
Languages : en
Pages : 610
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Book Description
Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Study Institute, Tucson, Arizona, USA, May 19-June 2, 1985
Author: L. Duckstein
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9400935773
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 586
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Book Description
Hydraulic, hydrologic and water resources engineers have been concerned for a long time about failure phenomena. One of the major concerns is the definition of a failure event E, of its probability of occurrence PtE), and of the complementary notion of reliability. However, as the stochastic aspects of hydraulics and water resources engineering were developed, words such as "failure," "reliability," and "risk" took on different meanings for different specialists. For example, "risk" is defined in a Bayesian framework as the expected loss resulting from a precisely defined failure event, while according to the practice of stochastic hydraulics it is the probability of occurrence of a failure event. The need to standardize the various concepts and operational definitions generated numerous exciting discussions between the co-editors of this book during 1983-84 when L. Duckstein, under sponsorship of the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation (FRG), was working with E. Plate at the Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources of the University of Karlsruhe. After consulting with the Scientific Affairs Division of NATO, an organizing committee was formed. This comittee - J. Bernier (France), M. Benedini (Italy), S. Sorooshian (U. S. A. ), and co-directors L. Duckstein (U. S. A. ) and E. J. Plate (F. R. G. ) -- brought into being this NATO Advanced Study Institute (ASI). Precisely stated, the purpose of this ASI was to present a tutorial overview of existing work in the broad area of reliability while also pointing out topics for further development.
Author: J. Ganoulis
Publisher: Springer
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 570
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Book Description
Author: Bilal M. Ayyub
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1135438994
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 597
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Book Description
More than any other book available, Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics introduces the fundamental concepts, techniques, and applications of the subject in a style tailored to meet the needs of students and practitioners of engineering, science, economics, and finance. Drawing on his extensive experience in uncertainty and risk modeling and analysis, the author leads readers from the fundamental concepts through the theory, applications, and data requirements, sources, and collection. He emphasizes the practical use of the methods presented and carefully examines the limitations, advantages, and disadvantages of each. Case studies that incorporate the techniques discussed offer a practical perspective that helps readers clearly identify and solve problems encountered in practice. If you deal with decision-making under conditions of uncertainty, this book is required reading. The presentation includes more than 300 tables and figures, more than 100 examples, many case studies, and a wealth of end-of-chapter problems. Unlike the classical books on reliability and risk assessment, this book helps you relate underlying concepts to everyday applications and better prepares you to understand and use the methods of risk analysis.
Author: Bilal M. Ayyub
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1466518251
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 642
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Book Description
Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics is required reading for decision making under conditions of uncertainty. The author describes the fundamental concepts, techniques, and applications of the subject in a style tailored to meet the needs of students and practitioners of engineering, science, economics, and finance. Drawing on his extensive experience in uncertainty and risk modeling and analysis, the author covers everything from basic theory and key computational algorithms to data needs, sources, and collection. He emphasizes practical use of the methods presented and carefully examines the limitations, advantages, and disadvantages of each to help readers translate the discussed techniques into real-world solutions. This Second Edition: Introduces the topic of risk finance Incorporates homeland security applications throughout Offers additional material on predictive risk management Includes a wealth of new and updated end-of-chapter problems Delivers a complementary mix of theoretical background and risk methods Brings together engineering and economics on balanced terms to enable appropriate decision making Presents performance segregation and aggregation within a risk framework Contains contemporary case studies, such as protecting hurricane-prone regions and critical infrastructure Provides 320+ tables and figures, over 110 diverse examples, numerous end-of-book references, and a bibliography Unlike the classical books on reliability and risk management, Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics, Second Edition relates underlying concepts to everyday applications, ensuring solid understanding and use of the methods of risk analysis.
Author: C Vaughan Jones
Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing USA
ISBN: 0313368716
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 185
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Book Description
The water and power industries, including the most capital-intensive producers of goods and services in our economy, are exposed to financial risks of staggering proportions. With projects that are routinely large and require long-term planning, and with demand and supply often highly volatile, costs regularly defy prediction. Still, there has been little explicit analysis of financial risk in the water and power industries. In this work, C. Vaughan Jones provides a comprehensive discussion of financial risk and risk analysis for these utilities. Writing in clear, straightforward language, he explores the application of risk analysis to construction projects, rate-setting and price effects, and customer characteristics. In developing a method for evaluating risk, Jones brings together material from business, engineering, economics, demography, probability theory, computer simulation, and policy studies. The materials are organized around risk factors affecting costs and revenues, and support a practical analysis with spreadsheet and simulation examples. Separate chapters present findings relating to the variability of construction costs, customer demand, and population growth. Together with qualitative information about risks, these chapters offer suggestions about quantitative representation of relevant patterns of variability of key risk sources. The techniques are integrated in simulation models dealing with contract risk, the evaluation of sinking funds and amortization schedules, and long-run capacity planning. The concluding chapters summarize major findings, consider issues of reliability and validation, and discuss the way in which this analysis can be applied to a variety of infrastructure investments. Finance and investment professionals and students in business and finance studies will find this work to be a useful reference tool. For public and academic libraries, it will represent a valuable addition to their collections.
Author: Yacov Y. Haimes
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Education
Languages : en
Pages : 256
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Book Description
Comprises edited papers from the proceedings of the Eighth Engineering Foundation Conference held in Santa Barbara, California, on October 12-17, 1997. This work discusses legislative initiatives and risk assessment, climate change, El Ninako, maintenance and rehabilitation, reliability of physical infrastructure, and the risk of extreme events.
Author: Mark S. Dortch
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Inland navigation
Languages : en
Pages : 230
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Book Description
