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Author: Charlotte Gardes-Landolfini
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Book Description
The transition to a low-carbon economy, which is needed to mitigate climate change and meet the Paris Agreement temperature goals, has been affected by the supply chain and energy supply disruptions that originated during the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the subsequent energy crisis and exacerbation of geopolitical tensions. These developments, and the broader context of the ongoing “polycrisis,” can affect future decarbonization scenarios. This reflects three main factors: (1) pullbacks in climate mitigation policies and increased carbon lock-in in fossil fuel infrastructure and policymaking; (2) the decreasing likelihood of continuous cost reduction in renewable energy technologies; and (3) the likely intensification of macroeconomic shocks amid increasing geoeconomic fragmentation, and the associated policy responses. In this context, the note assesses the implications of the polycrisis for hypothetical scenarios used to assess climate-related financial risks. Following an analysis of the channels through which these effects are likely to materialize over short- and long-term horizons and some policy implications, the note proposes potential adjustments to the design of the climate scenarios used by financial institutions, central banks, and financial sector supervisors and regulators within their risk management frameworks.
Author: Charlotte Gardes-Landolfini
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Book Description
The transition to a low-carbon economy, which is needed to mitigate climate change and meet the Paris Agreement temperature goals, has been affected by the supply chain and energy supply disruptions that originated during the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the subsequent energy crisis and exacerbation of geopolitical tensions. These developments, and the broader context of the ongoing “polycrisis,” can affect future decarbonization scenarios. This reflects three main factors: (1) pullbacks in climate mitigation policies and increased carbon lock-in in fossil fuel infrastructure and policymaking; (2) the decreasing likelihood of continuous cost reduction in renewable energy technologies; and (3) the likely intensification of macroeconomic shocks amid increasing geoeconomic fragmentation, and the associated policy responses. In this context, the note assesses the implications of the polycrisis for hypothetical scenarios used to assess climate-related financial risks. Following an analysis of the channels through which these effects are likely to materialize over short- and long-term horizons and some policy implications, the note proposes potential adjustments to the design of the climate scenarios used by financial institutions, central banks, and financial sector supervisors and regulators within their risk management frameworks.
Author: Manfred Hafner
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030390667
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 398
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Book Description
The world is currently undergoing an historic energy transition, driven by increasingly stringent decarbonisation policies and rapid advances in low-carbon technologies. The large-scale shift to low-carbon energy is disrupting the global energy system, impacting whole economies, and changing the political dynamics within and between countries. This open access book, written by leading energy scholars, examines the economic and geopolitical implications of the global energy transition, from both regional and thematic perspectives. The first part of the book addresses the geopolitical implications in the world’s main energy-producing and energy-consuming regions, while the second presents in-depth case studies on selected issues, ranging from the geopolitics of renewable energy, to the mineral foundations of the global energy transformation, to governance issues in connection with the changing global energy order. Given its scope, the book will appeal to researchers in energy, climate change and international relations, as well as to professionals working in the energy industry.
Author: Mr. Jorge A Alvarez
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 78
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Book Description
This paper studies the economic impact of fragmentation of commodity trade. We assemble a novel dataset of production and bilateral trade flows of the 48 most important energy, mineral and agricultural commodities. We develop a partial equilibrium framework to assess which commodity markets are most vulnerable in the event of trade disruptions and the economic risks that they pose. We find that commodity trade fragmentation – which has accelerated since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – could cause large price changes and price volatility for many commodities. Mineral markets critical for the clean energy transition and selected agricultural commodity markets appear among the most vulnerable in the hypothetical segmentation of the world into two geopolitical blocs examined in the paper. Trade disruptions result in heterogeneous impacts on economic surplus across countries. However, due to offsetting effects across commodity producing and consuming countries, surplus losses appear modest at the global level.
Author:
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 56
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Book Description
Author: Ruchir Agarwal
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513577603
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 54
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Book Description
Urgent steps are needed to arrest the rising human toll and economic strain from the COVID-19 pandemic that are exacerbating already-diverging recoveries. Pandemic policy is also economic policy as there is no durable end to the economic crisis without an end to the health crisis. Building on existing initiatives, this paper proposes pragmatic actions at the national and multilateral level to expeditiously defeat the pandemic. The proposal targets: (1) vaccinating at least 40 percent of the population in all countries by the end of 2021 and at least 60 percent by the first half of 2022, (2) tracking and insuring against downside risks, and (3) ensuring widespread testing and tracing, maintaining adequate stocks of therapeutics, and enforcing public health measures in places where vaccine coverage is low. The benefits of such measures at about $9 trillion far outweigh the costs which are estimated to be around $50 billion—of which $35 billion should be paid by grants from donors and the residual by national governments potentially with the support of concessional financing from bilateral and multilateral agencies. The grant funding gap identified by the Access to COVID-19 Tools (ACT) Accelerator amounts to about $22 billion, which the G20 recognizes as important to address. This leaves an estimated $13 billion in additional grant contributions needed to finance our proposal. Importantly, the strategy requires global cooperation to secure upfront financing, upfront vaccine donations, and at-risk investment to insure against downside risks for the world.
Author: International Monetary
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 117
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Book Description
The economy continues to recover while inflation is low. Banks’ credit is expanding, and the financial sector appears sound and stable. The current account is in surplus and international reserve coverage is adequate. The fiscal position in FY2023 was better than budgeted, while public debt remained below the authorities’ soft debt target.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 182
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Book Description
The latest World Economic Outlook reports signs that policy tightening is starting to cool activity despite core inflation proving persistent. Risks are more balanced as banking sector stress has receded, but they remain tilted to the downside. Monetary policy should stay the course to bring inflation to target, while fiscal consolidation is needed to tackle soaring debts. Structural reforms are crucial to revive medium-term growth prospects amid constrained policy space.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 116
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Book Description
The financial sector has remained resilient to a series of shocks and is well capitalized and profitable, but risks remain. Bank profitability and capital have surpassed pre-pandemic levels. Liquidity buffers remain strong and banks’ direct exposures to Russia are limited. The insurance and investment funds sectors have also weathered the pandemic well. There is limited evidence of credit or asset price booms over the past decade. However, inflationary pressures, partly the result of spillovers from Russia’s war on Ukraine, and a rapid tightening of financial conditions have weakened activity and reined in credit demand. Among high uncertainty, GDP growth is projected to slow in 2023, before returning to potential over the medium-term.
Author: Etienne Espagne
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 57
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Book Description
This paper analyzes the cross-border risks that could result from a decarbonization of the world economy. We develop a typology of cross-border risks and their respective channels. Our qualitative and quantitative scenario analysis suggests that the mid-transition – a period during which fossil-fuel and low-carbon energy systems co-exist and transform at a rapid pace – could have profound stability and resilience implications for global trade and the international financial system.
Author: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD)
Publisher: Stylus Publishing, LLC
ISBN: 9213585500
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 177
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Book Description
The Review of Maritime Transport is an UNCTAD flagship publication, published annually since 1968. Around 80 per cent of the volume of international trade in goods is carried by sea, and the percentage is even higher for most developing countries. The Review of Maritime Transport provides an analysis of structural and cyclical changes affecting seaborne trade, ports and shipping, as well as an extensive collection of statistical information. The report calls for a “just and equitable transition” to a decarbonized shipping industry. The sector, whose greenhouse gas emissions have risen 20% over the last decade, operates an ageing fleet that runs almost exclusively on fossil fuels. As global leaders prepare for the next UN climate conference (COP28), UNCTAD advocates for system-wide collaboration, swift regulatory intervention and stronger investments in green technologies and fleets. Full decarbonization by 2050 will require massive investments and could lead to higher maritime logistics costs, raising concerns for vulnerable shipping-reliant nations like small island developing states. The report emphasizes the need to balance environmental goals with economic needs but underscores that the cost of inaction far outweighs the required investments. The report recommends policy actions to overcome supply chain hurdles African countries face, including poor logistics, low levels of technology, fragmented markets, limited capital sources, and weak institutions and regulations. Beyond cleaner fuels, the industry needs to move faster towards digital solutions like AI and blockchain to improve efficiency as well as sustainability. In its analysis of global maritime trends, the report highlights shipping’s resilience despite major challenges stemming from global crises, such as the war in Ukraine. Maritime trade is expected to grow 2.4% in 2023 and more than 3% between 2024 and 2028.
