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Author: Mr.Jeronimo Zettelmeyer
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451855443
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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Book Description
The presence of an “EMU premium” in German long rates is tested by examining the co-movement of German and other European yields, as well as the exchange rate of the private ECU, in reaction to EMU-related events. If German yields incorporate an “EMU premium” while other European currencies expect lower interest rates from EMU, then German and other European long yields should react in opposite directions to events affecting the probability of EMU. In fact, they typically react in the same direction. Similarly, events which lead to an appreciation of the private ECU are associated with a decline in German yields.
Author: Mr.Jeronimo Zettelmeyer
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451855443
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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Book Description
The presence of an “EMU premium” in German long rates is tested by examining the co-movement of German and other European yields, as well as the exchange rate of the private ECU, in reaction to EMU-related events. If German yields incorporate an “EMU premium” while other European currencies expect lower interest rates from EMU, then German and other European long yields should react in opposite directions to events affecting the probability of EMU. In fact, they typically react in the same direction. Similarly, events which lead to an appreciation of the private ECU are associated with a decline in German yields.
Author: Paul J.J. Welfens
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 364259039X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 463
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Book Description
Paul J. J. Welfens European monetary union has been discussed for more than three decades and is likely to be realized in 1999. One may anticipate generous interpretations of the fiscal convergence criteria. Such generosity consistent with the Maastricht Treaty might impair the credibility of the ECB and the stability of the Euro, respectively, despite the fact that inflation is a monetary phenomenon and has little to do with government deficits, unless they were financed via the printing press, which is excluded in the Maastricht Treaty. The European Commission's forecast of spring 1997 suggests that Italy will have problems in joining the EMU starter group as the is expected to be 3. 2% in 1997 and even 3. 9% in 1998. A Italian deficitlGDP ratio fully developed EMU group (with all 15 cowltries included) would represent 38% of the OECD GDP, slightly higher than the U. S. with 33% (Japan 21%). The exports/GDP ratio of EU countries is 30%, the ratio with respect to exports outside the EU would be 10% (Japan, U. S. 8%). The share of the U. S. dollar in international currency reserves fell from 67% to 40% in 1995, while the share of European currencies increased from 13% to 37%. Prior to the EMU, market participants have to anticipate whether a transition to 1999 will bring windfall losses or gains in various bond markets.
Author: J. Hölscher
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 0230374476
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 275
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Book Description
This book provides a comprehensive understanding of Germany's economic performance at the turn of the twenty-first century. The period under observation and analysis stretches from Germany's unification in 1990 over the death of the German Mark to first experiences with the Euro, with particular attention given to East Germany.
Author: Anne-Charlotte Paret
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513518321
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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Book Description
Are Bunds special? This paper estimates the “Bund premium” as the difference in convenience yields between other sovereign safe assets and German government bonds adjusted for sovereign credit risk, liquidity and swap market frictions. A higher premium suggests less substitutability of sovereign bonds. We document a rise in the “Bund premium” in the post-crisis period. We show that there is a negative relationship of the premium with the relative supply of German sovereign bonds, which is more pronounced for higher maturities and when risk aversion proxied by bond market volatility is high. Going forward, we expect German government debt supply to remain scarce, with important implications for the ECB’s monetary policy strategy.
Author: Alberto Alesina
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226012859
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 477
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Book Description
It is rare for countries to give up their currencies and thus their ability to influence such critical aspects of their economies as interest and exchange rates. Yet ten years ago a number of European countries did exactly that when they adopted the euro. Despite some dissent, there were a number of arguments in favor of this policy change: it would facilitate exchange of goods, money, and people by decreasing costs; it would increase trade; and it would enhance efficiency and competitiveness at the international level. A decade is an ideal time frame over which to evaluate the success of the euro and whether it has lived up to expectations. To that aim, Europe and the Euro looks at a number of important issues, including the effects of the euro on reform of goods and labor markets; its influence on business cycles and trade among members; and whether the single currency has induced convergence or divergence in the economic performance of member countries. While adoption of the euro may not have met the expectations of its most optimistic proponents, the benefits have been many, and there is reason to believe that the euro is robust enough to survive recent economic shocks. This volume is an essential reference on the first ten years of the euro and the workings of a monetary union.
Author: Daniel Gros
Publisher: CEPS
ISBN: 9290795697
Category : European Union countries
Languages : en
Pages : 81
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Book Description
"This is the seventh annual report issued by the CEPS Macroeconomic Policy Group since it was reconstituted at the start of economic and monetary union in 1999. This distinguished group of economists argues that a combination of slow growth, inadequate policy responses and newly emerging intra-area divergences are putting EMU at risk. Against this background, the MPG recommends that the ECB should downgrade its short-term concern about cyclical economic developments and pursue a monetary policy aimed at preserving the value of the euro in the long-term. Moreover, it urges the core countries to urgently return to fiscal discipline, both in their own interest and to set an example that would allow them to exert pressure on potential soft currency countries to do the same."--CEPS website.
Author: Jeffrey Anderson
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521643900
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 244
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Book Description
This book explores the effects of Germany's unification in 1990 on its policies toward the European Union.
Author: D. Cobham
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 0230801471
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 339
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Book Description
This book examines the slow growth and other problems experienced by the Eurozone in its early years, and the challenges which it now faces. The authors investigate the operation of monetary and fiscal policy in the Eurozone, the extent of structural reform and the reasons for it, and other topics.
Author: Christian Müller
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9783790800647
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 260
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Book Description
The EURO has now been in place for more than two years, but only the future will tell if the ECB policy proves successful in the long-term. Whether the monetary authorities have sufficient information, and more important, the right information to manage the EURO currency, has been an open question and will remain so for some time to come. This book discusses the economic principals underlying the demand for money as a potentially useful relationship for policy makers, and the possibilities to recover its properties by means of multivariate time series analysis. It applies the outcome of these considerations to the whole EURO area as well as to France. While for the aggregate, a money demand function can be specified and be shown to have good forecasting properties, this fails in the French case. This book puts forth economic arguments that attempt to explain this. At various steps of the analysis, special attention is given to breaks in time series data. The presentation carefully outlines all means that have been used to cope with shifts in coefficients of the cointegration relations. A separate chapter is dedicated to testing for unit roots in time series with level shifts. This includes detection of break points, provision of test statistics, graphical evaluation of the empirical models and illustration of the procedure with a large set of international macroeconomic data.
Author: Ignazio Angeloni
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1139438816
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 515
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Book Description
This 2003 book offers the most systematic analysis available of the impact of European Central Bank monetary policy on the national economies of the Eurozone. Analysing macro and micro-economic evidence, with chapters by central bank economists, including a discussion chapter by eminent macroeconomists, it is an essential contribution to research on the subject.
