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Author: Office for Budget Responsibility
Publisher: The Stationery Office
ISBN: 9780101803625
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 180
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Book Description
The Office for Budget Responsibility was established to provide independent and authoritative analysis of the UK's public finances. Part of this role includes producing the official economic and fiscal forecasts. This report sets out forecasts for the period to 2015-16. The report also assesses whether the Government is on course to meet the medium-term fiscal objectives and presents preliminary observations on the long-run sustainability of the public finances. Since the November 2010 outlook, the key economic developments have been an unexpected fall in UK GDP in the final quarter of 2010, a rise in world oil prices, and higher-than-expected UK inflation. The labour market has performed as expected, with unemployment rising. The OBR endorse all but one of the costings for the tax and spending measures set out in Budget 2011 (HC 836, ISBN 9780102971033) as reasonable central estimates, though there are significant uncertainties around a number of them. The central forecast for economic growth in 2011 is revised down from 2.1 to 1.7 per cent. On the fiscal outlook, OBR forecast that public sector net borrowing will decline steadily as share of national income, but more slowly than forecast in November. The Government set itself two medium-term fiscal targets: to balance the cyclically-adjusted current budget by the end of a rolling five-year period; and to see public sector debt falling in 2015-16. Examining performance against these targets, the OBR believe there is a greater than 50 per cent probability of meeting both targets under current policy.
Author: Office for Budget Responsibility
Publisher: The Stationery Office
ISBN: 9780101803625
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 180
Get Book Here
Book Description
The Office for Budget Responsibility was established to provide independent and authoritative analysis of the UK's public finances. Part of this role includes producing the official economic and fiscal forecasts. This report sets out forecasts for the period to 2015-16. The report also assesses whether the Government is on course to meet the medium-term fiscal objectives and presents preliminary observations on the long-run sustainability of the public finances. Since the November 2010 outlook, the key economic developments have been an unexpected fall in UK GDP in the final quarter of 2010, a rise in world oil prices, and higher-than-expected UK inflation. The labour market has performed as expected, with unemployment rising. The OBR endorse all but one of the costings for the tax and spending measures set out in Budget 2011 (HC 836, ISBN 9780102971033) as reasonable central estimates, though there are significant uncertainties around a number of them. The central forecast for economic growth in 2011 is revised down from 2.1 to 1.7 per cent. On the fiscal outlook, OBR forecast that public sector net borrowing will decline steadily as share of national income, but more slowly than forecast in November. The Government set itself two medium-term fiscal targets: to balance the cyclically-adjusted current budget by the end of a rolling five-year period; and to see public sector debt falling in 2015-16. Examining performance against these targets, the OBR believe there is a greater than 50 per cent probability of meeting both targets under current policy.
Author: Office for Budget Responsibility
Publisher: The Stationery Office
ISBN: 9780101797924
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 164
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Book Description
The Office for Budget Responsibility was established to provide independent and authoritative analysis of the UK's public finances. Part of this role includes producing the official economic and fiscal forecasts. This report sets out forecasts for the period to 2015-16. The report also assesses whether the Government is on course to meet the medium-term fiscal objectives and presents preliminary observations on the long-run sustainability of the public finances. Since the June forecast, the UK economy has recovered more strongly than initially expected. The GDP growth was greater than expected in both the 2nd and 3rd quarters, but that unemployment levels have risen to levels that the June forecast did not anticipate until the middle of 2012. In general the world economy has also grown more strongly. CPI inflation has remained slightly higher than expected in June, whilst public finances have performed as forecast. The interest rates on UK debt are lower than in June. The OBR forecasts that the economy will continue to recover from the recession, but at a slower pace than the recoveries of the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. The publication is divided into 5 chapters with two annexes.
Author: Office for Budget Responsibility
Publisher: The Stationery Office
ISBN: 9780101830324
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 192
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Book Description
The Office for Budget Responsibility was established to provide independent and authoritative analysis of the UK's public finances. Part of this role includes producing the official economic and fiscal forecasts. This report sets out forecasts for the period to 2016-17. The report also assesses whether the Government is on course to meet the medium-term fiscal objectives. The OBR assessment of the outlook and risks for the UK economy is broadly unchanged since the November 2011 report. A technical recession will be avoided with positive growth in the first quarter of 2012. GDP will grow by 0.8% in 2012, 2% in 2013, 2.7% in 2014 and 3% for 2015-16 period. Public sector net borrowing is forecast to total £126 billion, 8.3% of GDP this year which is £1.1 billion less than the November forecast. For 2016-17, the PSNB is then forecast to decline to £21 billion. The fall in PSNB in 2012-13 is much larger than the OBR's November forecast due to the Government's decision to transfer the Royal Mail's historic pension deficit. The Chancellor's decision to cut 50% additional rate income tax to 45% has an estimated direct cost to the Exchequer of £0.1 billion in 2013-14. Other forecasts by the OBR, include: the ILO unemployment rate to rise from 8.4% to 8.7% over the coming year; household disposable income growth to be weak in 2012-13, but consumption to begin to offer some support to the recovery in the second half of the year; that the situation in the euro area remains a major risk to accurate forecasting. The publication is divided into five chapters: Chapter 1: Executive summary; Chapter 2: Developments since the November 2011 forecast; Chapter 3: economic outlook; Chapter 4: Fiscal outlook; Chapter 5: Performance against the Government's fiscal targest; Annex A - Budget 2012 policy measures.
Author: OECD
Publisher: OECD Publishing
ISBN: 926409217X
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 411
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Book Description
In addition to the usual macroeconomic and country assessments and statistical annex with projection data, this issue of the OECD Economic Outlook also includes special chapters on the persistence of high unemployment and drivers and vulnerabilities associated with international capital flows.
Author: Office for Budget Responsibility
Publisher: The Stationery Office
ISBN: 9780101857321
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 194
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Book Description
This report sets out forecasts for the period to 2017-18 and assesses whether the Government is on course to meet its medium-term fiscal objectives. The economy grew slightly more strongly in 2012 than expected but also shrank more than expected in the final quarter, and entered 2013 with reduced momentum. This leads the OBR to revise growth forecasts to 0.6 per cent in 2013 and 1.8 per cent in 2014. Thereafter the forecasts are unchanged rising to 2.8 percent by 2017. The pace of recovery is constrained by slow growth in productivity and real incomes, continued problems in the financial system, the fiscal consolidation and the outlook for the global economy. Public sector net borrowing (PSNB) is expected to be broadly flat this and next, then will resume its fall in 2014-15. Underlying deficits in PSNB are forecast to be very close to £120 billion in 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14. Tax receipts are £5.1 billion lower but central government departments are expected to underspend by almost £11 billion this year. The Government has a more than 50 per cent chance of meetings its fiscal mandate. Other forecasts by the OBR include: the ILO unemployment rate to peak at 8.0 per cent in 2014 before falling back to 6.9 per cent in 2017. Real wage growth is expected to be negative in 2013, only marginally positive in 2014 before picking up to 2 per cent in 2016. The publication contains: Chapter 1: Executive summary; Chapter 2: Developments since the December 2012 forecast; Chapter 3: Economic outlook; Chapter 4: Fiscal outlook; Chapter 5: Performance against the Government's fiscal targets; Annex A - Budget 2013 policy measures.
Author: Ben Clift
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0192698869
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 305
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Book Description
The Office for Budget Responsibility and the Politics of Technocratic Economic Governance is about the politics of economic ideas and technocratic economic governance. It is also a book about the changing political economy of British capitalism's relationship to the European and wider global economies. It focuses on the creation in 2010 and subsequent operation of the independent body created to oversee fiscal rectitude in Britain, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). More broadly, it analyses the politics of economic management of the UK's uncertain trajectory, and of British capitalism's restructuring in the 2010s and 2020s in the face of the upheavals of the global financial crisis (GFC), Brexit and COVID. A focus on the intersection between expert economic opinion of the OBR as UK's fiscal watchdog, and the political economy of British capitalism's evolution through and after Brexit, animates a framework for analysing the politics of technocratic economic governance. The technocratic vision of independent fiscal councils fails to grasp a core political economy insight: that economic knowledge and narratives are political and social constructs. The book unpacks the competing constructions of economic reason that underpin models of British capitalism, and through that inform expert economic assessment of the UK economy. It also underlines how contestable political economic assumptions undergird visions of Britain's international economic relations. These were all brought to the fore in economic policy debates about Britain's place in the world, which in the 2010s centred on Brexit. This book analyses OBR forecasting and fiscal oversight in that broader political context, rather than as a narrowly technical pursuit.
Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309444454
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 643
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Book Description
The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration finds that the long-term impact of immigration on the wages and employment of native-born workers overall is very small, and that any negative impacts are most likely to be found for prior immigrants or native-born high school dropouts. First-generation immigrants are more costly to governments than are the native-born, but the second generation are among the strongest fiscal and economic contributors in the U.S. This report concludes that immigration has an overall positive impact on long-run economic growth in the U.S. More than 40 million people living in the United States were born in other countries, and almost an equal number have at least one foreign-born parent. Together, the first generation (foreign-born) and second generation (children of the foreign-born) comprise almost one in four Americans. It comes as little surprise, then, that many U.S. residents view immigration as a major policy issue facing the nation. Not only does immigration affect the environment in which everyone lives, learns, and works, but it also interacts with nearly every policy area of concern, from jobs and the economy, education, and health care, to federal, state, and local government budgets. The changing patterns of immigration and the evolving consequences for American society, institutions, and the economy continue to fuel public policy debate that plays out at the national, state, and local levels. The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration assesses the impact of dynamic immigration processes on economic and fiscal outcomes for the United States, a major destination of world population movements. This report will be a fundamental resource for policy makers and law makers at the federal, state, and local levels but extends to the general public, nongovernmental organizations, the business community, educational institutions, and the research community.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ISBN: 9781616351199
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
The September 2011 edition of the World Economic Outlook assesses the prospects for the global economy, which is now in a dangerous new phase. Global activity has weakened and become more uneven, confidence has fallen sharply recently, and downside risks are growing. Against a backdrop of unresolved structural fragilities, a barrage of shocks hit the international economy this year, including the devastating Japanese earthquake and tsunami, unrest in some oil-producing countries, and the major financial turbulence in the euro area. Two of the forces now shaping the global economy are high and rising commodity prices and the need for many economies to address large budget deficits. Chapter 3 examines the inflationary effects of commodity price movements and the appropriate monetary policy response. Chapter 4 explores the implications of efforts by advanced economies to restore fiscal sustainability and by emerging and developing economies to tighten fiscal policy to rebuild fiscal policy room and in some cases to restrain overheating pressures.
Author: Great Britain: Parliament: House of Commons: Treasury Committee
Publisher: The Stationery Office
ISBN: 9780215043863
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 94
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Book Description
This report on the Budget 2012 highlights a number of areas of concern as well as outlining recommendations for Government action and future Treasury Committee activity. On macroeconomic policy the report covers macroprudential rules, the output gap, quantitative easing, and wider economic risks. Taxation matters examined include personal tax statements, retrospective taxation, and the 45p tax rate. Other sections are concerned with the child benefit system, leaks, and the timing of the Budget.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484348834
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 657
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Book Description
Global growth is in low gear, and the drivers of activity are changing. These dynamics raise new policy challenges. Advanced economies are growing again but must continue financial sector repair, pursue fiscal consolidation, and spur job growth. Emerging market economies face the dual challenges of slowing growth and tighter global financial conditions. This issue of the World Economic Outlook examines the potential spillovers from these transitions and the appropriate policy responses. Chapter 3 explores how output comovements are influenced by policy and financial shocks, growth surprises, and other linkages. Chapter 4 assesses why certain emerging market economies were able to avoid the classical boom-and-bust cycle in the face of volatile capital flows during the global financial crisis.
