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Author: David F. Hendry
Publisher: OUP Oxford
ISBN: 0191522112
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 560
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Book Description
"Econometrics: Alchemy or Science?" analyses the effectiveness and validity of applying econometric methods to economic time series. The methodological dispute is long-standing, and no claim can be made for a single valid method, but recent results on the theory and practice of model selection bid fair to resolve many of the contentious issues. The book presents criticisms and evaluations of competing approaches, based on theoretical economic and econometric analyses, empirical applications, and Monte Carlo simulations, which interact to determine best practice. It explains the evolution of an approach to econometric modelling founded in careful statistical analyses of the available data, using economic theory to guide the general model specification. From a strong foundation in the theory of reduction, via a range of applied and simulation studies, it demonstrates that general-to-specific procedures have excellent properties. The book is divided into four Parts: Routes and Route Maps; Empirical Modelling Strategies; Formalization; and Retrospect and Prospect. A short preamble to each chapter sketches the salient themes, links to earlier and later developments, and the lessons learnt or missed at the time. A sequence of detailed empirical studies of consumers' expenditure and money demand illustrate most facets of the approach. Material new to this revised edition describes recent major advances in computer-automated model selection, embodied in the powerful new software program PcGets, which establish the operational success of the modelling strategy.
Author: David F. Hendry
Publisher: OUP Oxford
ISBN: 0191522112
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 560
Get Book Here
Book Description
"Econometrics: Alchemy or Science?" analyses the effectiveness and validity of applying econometric methods to economic time series. The methodological dispute is long-standing, and no claim can be made for a single valid method, but recent results on the theory and practice of model selection bid fair to resolve many of the contentious issues. The book presents criticisms and evaluations of competing approaches, based on theoretical economic and econometric analyses, empirical applications, and Monte Carlo simulations, which interact to determine best practice. It explains the evolution of an approach to econometric modelling founded in careful statistical analyses of the available data, using economic theory to guide the general model specification. From a strong foundation in the theory of reduction, via a range of applied and simulation studies, it demonstrates that general-to-specific procedures have excellent properties. The book is divided into four Parts: Routes and Route Maps; Empirical Modelling Strategies; Formalization; and Retrospect and Prospect. A short preamble to each chapter sketches the salient themes, links to earlier and later developments, and the lessons learnt or missed at the time. A sequence of detailed empirical studies of consumers' expenditure and money demand illustrate most facets of the approach. Material new to this revised edition describes recent major advances in computer-automated model selection, embodied in the powerful new software program PcGets, which establish the operational success of the modelling strategy.
Author: David F. Hendry
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN: 0198293542
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 561
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Book Description
"Econometrics: Alchemy or Science?" analyses the effectiveness and validity of applying econometric methods to economic time series. The methodological dispute is long-standing, and no claim can be made for a single valid method, but recent results on the theory and practice of model selection bid fair to resolve many of the contentious issues.The book presents criticisms and evaluations of competing approaches, based on theoretical economic and econometric analyses, empirical applications, and Monte Carlo simulations, which interact to determine best practice. It explains the evolution of an approach to econometric modelling founded in careful statistical analyses of the available data, using economic theory to guide the general model specification. From a strong foundation in the theory of reduction, via a range of applied andsimulation studies, it demonstrates that general-to-specific procedures have excellent properties.The book is divided into four Parts: Routes and Route Maps; Empirical Modelling Strategies; Formalization; and Retrospect and Prospect. A short preamble to each chapter sketches the salient themes, links to earlier and later developments, and the lessons learnt or missed at the time. A sequence of detailed empirical studies of consumers' expenditure and money demand illustrate most facets of the approach. Material new to this revised edition describes recent major advances in computer-automatedmodel selection, embodied in the powerful new software program PcGets, which establish the operational success of the modelling strategy.
Author: Imad A. Moosa
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN: 1785369954
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 253
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Book Description
Imad Moosa challenges convention with this comprehensive and compelling critique of econometrics, condemning the common practices of misapplied statistical methods in both economics and finance.
Author: W.M. Mason
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461385369
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 402
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Book Description
The existence of the present volume can be traced to methodological concerns about cohort analysis, all of which were evident throughout most of the social sciences by the late 1970s. For some social scientists, they became part of a broader discussion concerning the need for new analytical techniques for research based on longitudinal data. In 1976, the Social Science Research Council (SSRC), with funds from the National Institute of Education, established a Committee on the Methodology of Longitudinal Research. (The scholars who comprised this committee are listed at the front of this volume. ) As part of the efforts of this Committee, an interdisciplinary conference on cohort analysis was held in the summer of 1979, in Snowmass, Colorado. Much of the work presented here stems from that conference, the purpose of which was to promote the development of general methodological tools for the study of social change. The conference included five major presentations by (1) William Mason and Herbert Smith, (2) Karl J6reskog and Dag S6rbom, (3) Gregory Markus, (4) John Hobcraft, Jane Menken and Samuel Preston, and (5) Stephen Fienberg and William Mason. The formal presentations were each followed by extensive discussion, which involved as participants: Paul Baltes, William Butz, Philip Converse, Otis Dudley Duncan, David Freedman, William Meredith, John Nesselroade, Daniel Price, Thomas Pullum, Peter Read, Matilda White Riley, Norman Ryder, Warren Sanderson, Warner Schaie, Burton Singer, Nancy Tuma, Harrison White, and Halliman Winsborough.
Author: David F. Hendry
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780198283164
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 918
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Book Description
The main problem in econometric modelling of time series is discovering sustainable and interpretable relationships between observed economic variables. The primary aim of this book is to develop an operational econometric approach which allows constructive modelling. Professor Hendry deals with methodological issues (model discovery, data mining, and progressive research strategies); with major tools for modelling (recursive methods, encompassing, super exogeneity, invariance tests); and with practical problems (collinearity, heteroscedasticity, and measurement errors). He also includes an extensive study of US money demand. The book is self-contained, with the technical background covered in appendices. It is thus suitable for first year graduate students, and includes solved examples and exercises to facilitate its use in teaching. About the Series Advanced Texts in Econometrics is a distinguished and rapidly expanding series in which leading econometricians assess recent developments in such areas as stochastic probability, panel and time series data analysis, modeling, and cointegration. In both hardback and affordable paperback, each volume explains the nature and applicability of a topic in greater depth than possible in introductory textbooks or single journal articles. Each definitive work is formatted to be as accessible and convenient for those who are not familiar with the detailed primary literature.
Author: David F. Hendry
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400845653
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 378
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Book Description
Econometric Modeling provides a new and stimulating introduction to econometrics, focusing on modeling. The key issue confronting empirical economics is to establish sustainable relationships that are both supported by data and interpretable from economic theory. The unified likelihood-based approach of this book gives students the required statistical foundations of estimation and inference, and leads to a thorough understanding of econometric techniques. David Hendry and Bent Nielsen introduce modeling for a range of situations, including binary data sets, multiple regression, and cointegrated systems. In each setting, a statistical model is constructed to explain the observed variation in the data, with estimation and inference based on the likelihood function. Substantive issues are always addressed, showing how both statistical and economic assumptions can be tested and empirical results interpreted. Important empirical problems such as structural breaks, forecasting, and model selection are covered, and Monte Carlo simulation is explained and applied. Econometric Modeling is a self-contained introduction for advanced undergraduate or graduate students. Throughout, data illustrate and motivate the approach, and are available for computer-based teaching. Technical issues from probability theory and statistical theory are introduced only as needed. Nevertheless, the approach is rigorous, emphasizing the coherent formulation, estimation, and evaluation of econometric models relevant for empirical research.
Author: Badi Hani Baltagi
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9783540435013
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 426
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Book Description
As well as specification testing, Gauss-Newton regressions and regression diagnostics. In addition, the book features a set of empirical illustrations that demonstrate some of the basic results. The empirical exercises are solved using several econometric software packages.
Author: R.J. Epstein
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 1483294226
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 267
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Book Description
This comparative historical study of econometrics focuses on the development of econometric methods and their application to macroeconomics.The analysis covers the origins of modern econometrics in the USA and Europe during the 1920's and 30's, the rise of `structural estimation' in the 1940's and 50's as the dominant research paradigm, and the crisis of the large macroeconomic models in the 1970's and 80's.The completely original feature of this work is the use of previously unknown manuscript material from the archives of the Cowles Commission and other collections. The history so constructed shows that recent debates over methodology are incomplete without understanding the many deep criticisms that were first raised by the earliest researchers in the field.
Author: Olaf Hübler
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3540326936
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 236
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Book Description
In this book leading German econometricians in different fields present survey articles of the most important new methods in econometrics. The book gives an overview of the field and it shows progress made in recent years and remaining problems.
Author: William R. Newman
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226575241
Category : Art
Languages : en
Pages : 351
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Book Description
In an age when the nature of reality is complicated daily by advances in bioengineering, cloning, and artificial intelligence, it is easy to forget that the ever-evolving boundary between nature and technology has long been a source of ethical and scientific concern: modern anxieties about the possibility of artificial life and the dangers of tinkering with nature more generally were shared by opponents of alchemy long before genetic science delivered us a cloned sheep named Dolly. In Promethean Ambitions, William R. Newman ambitiously uses alchemy to investigate the thinning boundary between the natural and the artificial. Focusing primarily on the period between 1200 and 1700, Newman examines the labors of pioneering alchemists and the impassioned—and often negative—responses to their efforts. By the thirteenth century, Newman argues, alchemy had become a benchmark for determining the abilities of both men and demons, representing the epitome of creative power in the natural world. Newman frames the art-nature debate by contrasting the supposed transmutational power of alchemy with the merely representational abilities of the pictorial and plastic arts—a dispute which found artists such as Leonardo da Vinci and Bernard Palissy attacking alchemy as an irreligious fraud. The later assertion by the Paracelsian school that one could make an artificial human being—the homunculus—led to further disparagement of alchemy, but as Newman shows, the immense power over nature promised by the field contributed directly to the technological apologetics of Francis Bacon and his followers. By the mid-seventeenth century, the famous "father of modern chemistry," Robert Boyle, was employing the arguments of medieval alchemists to support the identity of naturally occurring substances with those manufactured by "chymical" means. In using history to highlight the art-nature debate, Newman here shows that alchemy was not an unformed and capricious precursor to chemistry; it was an art founded on coherent philosophical and empirical principles, with vocal supporters and even louder critics, that attracted individuals of first-rate intellect. The historical relationship that Newman charts between human creation and nature has innumerable implications today, and he ably links contemporary issues to alchemical debates on the natural versus the artificial.
