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Author: Shuoyuan He
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 52
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Book Description
We document that earnings acceleration, defined as the quarter-over-quarter change in earnings growth, has significant explanatory power for future excess returns. These excess returns are robust to a wide range of previously documented anomalies as well as a battery of risk controls. The magnitude of the excess returns (1.8% in a month-long window) is comparable to those from book-to-market, post-earnings announcement drift and gross profitability anomalies. The future return predictability appears to be consistent with investors assuming a seasonal random walk model for quarterly earnings and missing predictable implications of earnings acceleration for earnings growth two and three quarters hence. Finally, the excess returns from the basic earnings acceleration trading strategy can be enhanced further by nearly 45% by focusing on specific patterns of earnings acceleration.
Author: Shuoyuan He
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 52
Get Book Here
Book Description
We document that earnings acceleration, defined as the quarter-over-quarter change in earnings growth, has significant explanatory power for future excess returns. These excess returns are robust to a wide range of previously documented anomalies as well as a battery of risk controls. The magnitude of the excess returns (1.8% in a month-long window) is comparable to those from book-to-market, post-earnings announcement drift and gross profitability anomalies. The future return predictability appears to be consistent with investors assuming a seasonal random walk model for quarterly earnings and missing predictable implications of earnings acceleration for earnings growth two and three quarters hence. Finally, the excess returns from the basic earnings acceleration trading strategy can be enhanced further by nearly 45% by focusing on specific patterns of earnings acceleration.
Author: Jonathan Lewellen
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 42
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Book Description
We study the stock market reaction to aggregate earnings news. Previous research shows that, for individual firms, stock prices react positively to earnings news but require several quarters to fully reflect the information in earnings. We find that the relation between returns and earnings is substantially different in aggregate data. First, returns are unrelated to past earnings, suggesting that prices neither underreact nor overreact to aggregate earnings news. Second, aggregate returns are negatively correlated with concurrent earnings; over the last 30 years, stock prices increased 6.5% in quarters with negative earnings growth and only 1.9% otherwise. This finding suggests that earnings and discount rates move together over time, and provides new evidence that discount-rate shocks explain a significant fraction of aggregate stock returns.
Author: Frederick K. Martin
Publisher: McGraw Hill Professional
ISBN: 0071754563
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 305
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Book Description
Use a master’s lost secret to pick growth companies bound for success In 1948, legendary Columbia University professor Benjamin Graham bought a major stake in the Government Employees Insurance Corporation. In a time when no one trusted the stock market, he championed value investing and helped introduce the world to intrinsic value. He had a powerful valuation formula. Now, in this groundbreaking book, long-term investing expert Fred Martin shows you how to use value-investing principles to analyze and pick winning growth-stock companies—just like Graham did when he acquired GEICO. Benjamin Graham and the Power of Growth Stocks is an advanced, hands-on guide for investors and executives who want to find the best growth stocks, develop a solid portfolio strategy, and execute trades for maximum profitability and limited risk. Through conversational explanations, real-world case studies, and pragmatic formulas, it shows you step-by-step how this enlightened trading philosophy is successful. The secret lies in Graham’s valuation formula, which has been out of print since 1962—until now. By calculating the proper data, you can gain clarity of focus on an investment by putting on blinders to variables that are alluring but irrelevant. This one-stop guide to growing wealth shows you how to: Liberate your money from the needs of mutual funds and brokers Build a reasonable seven-year forecast for every company considered for your portfolio Estimate a company’s future value in four easy steps Ensure long-term profits with an unblinking buy-and-hold strategy This complete guide shows you why Graham’s game-changing formula works and how to use it to build a profitable portfolio. Additionally, you learn tips and proven techniques for unlocking the formula’s full potential with disciplined research and emotional control to stick by your decisions through long periods of inactive trading. But even if your trading approach includes profiting from short-term volatility, you can still benefit from the valuation formula and process inside by using them to gain an advantageous perspective on stock prices. Find the companies that will grow you a fortune with Benjamin Graham and the Power of Growth Stocks.
Author: S. P. Kothari
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 68
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Book Description
We study the stock market reaction to aggregate earnings news. Previous research shows that, for individual firms, stock prices react positively to earnings news but require several quarters to fully reflect the information in earnings. We find that the relation between returns and earnings is substantially different in aggregate data. First, returns are unrelated to past earnings, suggesting that prices neither underreact nor overreact to aggregate earnings news. Second, aggregate returns are negatively correlated with concurrent earnings; over the last 30 years, stock prices increased 6.5% in quarters with negative earnings growth and only 1.9% otherwise. This finding suggests that earnings and discount rates move together over time, and provides new evidence that discount-rate shocks explain a significant fraction of aggregate stock returns. JEL Classification: G12, G14, M41.
Author: Samuel Eliot Guild
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Stocks
Languages : en
Pages : 310
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Book Description
Author: John Shon
Publisher: FT Press
ISBN: 0132615851
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 225
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Book Description
Profit from earnings announcements, by taking targeted, short-term option positions explicitly timed to exploit them! Based on rigorous research and huge data sets, this book identifies the specific earnings-announcement trades most likely to yield profits, and teaches how to make these trades—in plain English, with real examples! Trading on Corporate Earnings News is the first practical, hands-on guide to profiting from earnings announcements. Writing for investors and traders at all experience levels, the authors show how to take targeted, short-term option positions that are explicitly timed to exploit the information in companies’ quarterly earnings announcements. They first present powerful findings of cutting-edge studies that have examined market reactions to quarterly earnings announcements, regularities of earnings surprises, and option trading around corporate events. Drawing on enormous data sets, they identify the types of earnings-announcement trades most likely to yield profits, based on the predictable impacts of variables such as firm size, visibility, past performance, analyst coverage, forecast dispersion, volatility, and the impact of restructurings and acquisitions. Next, they provide real examples of individual stocks–and, in some cases, conduct large sample tests–to guide investors in taking advantage of these documented regularities. Finally, they discuss crucial nuances and pitfalls that can powerfully impact performance.
Author: Robert A. Weigand
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
We revisit the conventional wisdom that high market P/E ratios forecast negative future stock returns. We identify a significant break in the stock return-P/E relationship at high levels of the market P/E. Starting from market P/E ratios of 21 or greater, 10-year real returns are in line with their long-term historical average, and real earnings growth is well above average. Modeling this break in the data and including the effect of several macroeconomic factors results in forecasts of future returns that are considerably more optimistic than those of previous studies. We also show that the way investors use the Fed Model to benchmark the earnings yield on stocks to the 10-year T-note yield has resulted in these two series becoming cointegrated over time. The reciprocal of the E/P ratio, the market P/E, becomes nonstationary about the same time investors begin using the Fed Model (ca. 1960), which means that the P/E ratio can stay above trend for an indefinite period of time. The market P/E no longer displays mean-reverting behavior, implying that high P/E ratios could be with us for the long term.
Author: Jamie Alcock
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 47
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Book Description
We provide theory and evidence to complement Choi's [RFS, 2013] important new insights on the returns to equity in 'value' firms. We show that higher future earnings growth ameliorates the value-reducing effect of leverage and, because the market for earnings is incomplete, reduces the earnings-risk sensitivity of the default option. Ceteris paribus, a levered firm with low (high) earnings growth is more sensitive to the first (second) of these effects thus generating higher (lower) expected returns. We demonstrate this by modelling equity as an Asian-style call option on net earnings and find significant empirical support for our hypotheses.
Author: Amy Chan
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Do stocks with faster growth potential exhibit superior average returns? Exploiting a parameterized equity valuation model, we analytically solve for the expected rate of return. We develop theoretical restrictions under which growth outlook induces a higher expected rate of return. Empirically, we find that in certain cyclical segments of the market, stocks with higher (ex-ante) growth expectation perform better than their slower growing counterparts. Growth outlook also enhances the profitability of momentum strategies: Winners with accelerated earnings growth potential experience superior returns compared to winners with sluggish growth potential. Controlling for cross-sectional movements in earnings yield, higher growth outlook stocks tend to have more pronounced average returns. Intriguingly, small-cap stocks with low growth outlook outperform small-cap stocks with high growth outlook. Growth outlook has investment value beyond traditional strategy drivers (momentum, value and size).
Author: Hewitt Heiserman
Publisher: McGraw Hill Professional
ISBN: 0071542477
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 238
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Book Description
An innovative way to see through a company's published numbers to discover its true investment potential This book gives you a blueprint for finding a great growth stock for the next decade without taking on a lot of risk in the process. Inspired by the writings of Benjamin Graham, It's Earnings That Count examines a firm’s earnings quality from the perspective of a “defensive” investor who wants to avoid committing ruinous mistakes as well as the “enterprising” investor who seeks Wall Street’s next great opportunities. Unfortunately, as recent market history has shown, the traditional income statement is ill-suited to meeting the needs of these sometimes opposing viewpoints. As a result, investors can buy shares of a seemingly profitable company that, in fact, has poor earnings quality. However, the author’s trademarked Earnings Power Chart combines Graham’s two personalities to reveal, in picture form, whether a company possesses authentic earnings power for long-term growth. Using the world-famous William Wrigley Jr. Company gum-maker as a case study, you will learn how to build these two alternate profit-and-loss statements to protect yourself. Since this book is written in plain English, you do not need to be an MBA or accountant to follow these step-by-step instructions. Giving investors the tools they need to turn the tables in their favor, It's Earnings That Count covers: The four limitations of the income statement found in every annual report, 10-K, and 10-Q A quick-hitting, five minute test to sift out the obvious losers so you can save time and focus on analyzing potential winners How to spot when a company is forging an Earnings Power Staircase—that’s your hallmark of a low-risk growth stock like Microsoft and Paychex Why the charts of Lucent Technologies, WorldCom, Enron, and Tyco signaled trouble ahead of traditional income statement. The 2 earnings power ratios you need before making your next investment 12 ways to check whether management’s interests are aligned with yours A list of 15 items to check for to make sure the companies in your stock portfolio have a competitive advantage. (Hint: Great growth stocks always have competitive advantages.) 16 kinds of companies to avoid 20 indicators that it may be time to sell
