Does Investor Sentiment Affect Sell-Side Analysts' Forecast Bias and Forecast Accuracy PDF Download
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Author: Beverly R. Walther
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
We examine the association between investor expectations and its components and sell-side analysts' short-run quarterly earnings forecast bias and forecast accuracy. To measure investor expectations, we use the Index of Consumer Expectations (ICE) survey and decompose it into the “fundamental” component related to underlying economic factors (FUND) and the “sentiment” component unrelated to underlying economic factors (SENT). We find that analysts are the most optimistic and the least accurate when SENT is higher. Management long-horizon earnings forecasts attenuate the effects of SENT on forecast optimism and forecast accuracy. Analysts are also the most accurate when FUND is higher. Last, the market places more weight on unexpected earnings when SENT is high. These findings suggest that analysts are affected by investor sentiment and the market reacts more strongly to unexpected earnings when analyst forecasts are the least accurate. The last result potentially explains why prior research (for example, Baker and Wurgler 2006) finds an association between investor sentiment and cross-sectional stock returns.
Author: Beverly R. Walther
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
We examine the association between investor expectations and its components and sell-side analysts' short-run quarterly earnings forecast bias and forecast accuracy. To measure investor expectations, we use the Index of Consumer Expectations (ICE) survey and decompose it into the “fundamental” component related to underlying economic factors (FUND) and the “sentiment” component unrelated to underlying economic factors (SENT). We find that analysts are the most optimistic and the least accurate when SENT is higher. Management long-horizon earnings forecasts attenuate the effects of SENT on forecast optimism and forecast accuracy. Analysts are also the most accurate when FUND is higher. Last, the market places more weight on unexpected earnings when SENT is high. These findings suggest that analysts are affected by investor sentiment and the market reacts more strongly to unexpected earnings when analyst forecasts are the least accurate. The last result potentially explains why prior research (for example, Baker and Wurgler 2006) finds an association between investor sentiment and cross-sectional stock returns.
Author: Pilar Corredor
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
This paper analyses four key markets within the European context. In this context, where the level of analyst coverage is lower than in the US setting, we aim to ascertain whether the origin of optimism in analyst forecasts in these markets is mainly strategic or whether it also contains an element of cognitive bias. Despite the fact that forecast errors lack the explanatory power to account for a significant percentage of the relationship between market sentiment and future stock returns, our new tests based on selection bias (SB1 and SB2), in conjunction with an analysis of abnormal trading volume, confirm the presence of both cognitive bias and strategic behaviour in analyst forecasts. This shows that, although regulation can reduce analyst optimism bias, the benefits are constrained by the fact that optimism bias is partly associated with cognitive bias.
Author: Helen Hurwitz
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 35
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Book Description
This study investigates whether investor sentiment is associated with behavioral bias in managers' annual earnings forecasts that are generally issued early in the year when uncertainty is relatively high. I provide evidence that management earnings forecast optimism increases with investor sentiment. Furthermore, I find that managers' annual earnings forecasts are more pessimistic during low-sentiment periods than during normal-sentiment periods. Since managers lack incentives to further deflate stock prices during a low-sentiment period, this evidence indicates that sentiment-related management earnings forecast bias is likely to be unintentional. In addition, I find that the relation between management earnings forecast bias and investor sentiment is stronger for firms with higher uncertainty, consistent with investor sentiment having a greater influence on management earnings forecasts when uncertainty is higher.
Author: Sarah E. Bonner
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 48
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Book Description
In this study we examine differences between sophisticated and unsophisticated investors' incorporation of information about the accuracy of sell-side analysts' revisions of quarterly earnings forecasts. Our results indicate that sophisticated investors' weights on information cues associated with accuracy more closely match the weights derived from environmental models of forecast accuracy. Further, our findings suggest that sophisticated investors' strategies better reflect the costs and benefits of using accuracy cues that provide statistically significant, but economically small, explanatory power for forecast accuracy. Our evidence is consistent with sophisticated investors having greater knowledge about the factors that are related to forecast accuracy and exhibiting more adaptive cue-weighting strategies.
Author: Hong Qian
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Many studies have documented that analyst forecasts are overly-optimistic on average. Using quarterly observations from 1984 to 2002, this paper shows that forecasts exhibit optimism for most of the quarters under examination, but the level of optimism varies substantially over time. More importantly, after correcting the measurement problem caused by price, I do not find optimism greatly diminished during most of the 1990s. However, consistent with previous findings, the period of 1999-2000 displays pessimistic forecasts, especially for large firms and growth firms. The macroeconomic factor does not have significant impact on analyst optimism. In contrast, the time-varying investor sentiments measured by two Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) put-call ratios, and the cross-sectional skewness in the forecast errors, play an important role in explaining the time variation in analyst optimism. Finally, analysts track institutional investor sentiment more closely, except for small firms.
Author:
Publisher: ScholarlyEditions
ISBN: 1490108351
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 242
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Book Description
Issues in Accounting, Administration, and Corporate Governance: 2013 Edition is a ScholarlyEditions™ book that delivers timely, authoritative, and comprehensive information about Logistics. The editors have built Issues in Accounting, Administration, and Corporate Governance: 2013 Edition on the vast information databases of ScholarlyNews.™ You can expect the information about Logistics in this book to be deeper than what you can access anywhere else, as well as consistently reliable, authoritative, informed, and relevant. The content of Issues in Accounting, Administration, and Corporate Governance: 2013 Edition has been produced by the world’s leading scientists, engineers, analysts, research institutions, and companies. All of the content is from peer-reviewed sources, and all of it is written, assembled, and edited by the editors at ScholarlyEditions™ and available exclusively from us. You now have a source you can cite with authority, confidence, and credibility. More information is available at http://www.ScholarlyEditions.com/.
Author: Anne Beyer
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 43
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Book Description
This study models the interaction between a sell-side analyst and risk-averse investors. It derives an analyst's optimal earnings forecast and investors' optimal trading decisions in a setting where the analyst's payoff depends on the trading volume the forecast generates as well as on the forecast error. In the fully separating equilibrium, we find that the analyst biases the forecast upward (downward) if his private signal reveals relatively good (bad) news.The model predicts that: (i) the analyst biases the forecast upward more often than downward and the forecast is on average optimistic; (ii) the magnitude of the analyst's bias is increasing in the per share benefit from trading volume he receives; and (iii) the analyst's expected squared forecast error may increase in the precision of his private information. Finally, we characterize the circumstances under which the (rational) analyst acts as if he overweights or underweights his private information.
Author: Xuan Wang
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781085656627
Category : Electronic dissertations
Languages : en
Pages : 90
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Book Description
This dissertation explores the informational role of sell-side analysts' change in forecasting horizon. I find that portfolios formed by buying stocks with large increase in analyst horizon and shorting stocks with large decrease in analyst horizon generate superior future return. Horizon change has information incremental to analyst earnings forecast and recommendation revisions, as well as firm fundamentals. Large increase in horizon mainly drives the result. I find that analysts who contribute to strong horizon increase are associated with higher forecast accuracy. This increase is likely associated with the career concerns of inexperienced analysts. The return predictability associated with analyst forecast horizon change exists in the information environment of high liquidity and low volatility, at the times when analyst forecasts are the most accurate. Moreover, analyst forecast horizon is partially related to analysts' profitability prediction and firm risk assessment, although the horizon change, the component predictable by firm fundamentals notwithstanding, is still able to predict return in the short-run. Overall, the findings reported in this dissertation support the view that sell-side analysts are important rational-information providers in the financial industry.
Author: Jan-Philipp Matthewes
Publisher: BoD – Books on Demand
ISBN: 3945021073
Category : Law
Languages : en
Pages : 185
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Book Description
Financial analysts play an ambivalent role on financial markets: On the one hand investors and the media frequently follow their advice, on the other hand they are regularly discredited when their forecasts or recommendations prove to be erroneous. This cumulative thesis explores the informational content of financial analysts’ forecasts for investors by addressing three specific topics: Consensus size as a rudimentary investment signal, the association of analysts’ target prices with business sentiment, and the consistency of analysts’ different investment signals in the context of the 2008 financial crisis. Overall, the thesis provides additional evidence that investors can profit from analysts’ forecasts and recommendations. However, it is also shown that investors need to be very selective about which signal to rely on and in which context to use these because analysts’ investment signals can also be heavily biased and erroneous. About the author: Jan-Philipp Matthewes studied ‘Economics’ at the University of Cologne, Germany, and holds a Dean’s Award from the Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences. His research focus on financial analysts evolved while working in equity research at a leading German bank. The PhD-thesis was supervised by Prof. Dr. Martin Wallmeier, Finance and Accounting, at the University of Fribourg, Switzerland. Since 2013 Jan-Philipp Matthewes is the managing director of the boutique private equity firm ‘Matthewes Capital Invest GmbH’.
Author: Stan Beckers
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Forecasting company earnings is a difficult and hazardous task. In an efficient market where analysts learn from past mistakes, there should be no persistent and systematic biases in consensus earnings accuracy. Previous research has already established how some (single) individual-company characteristics systematically influence forecast accuracy. So far, however, the effect on consensus earnings biases of a company's sector and country affiliation combined with a range of other fundamental characteristics has remained largely unexplored. Using data for 1993-2002, this article disentangles and quantifies for a broad universe of European stocks how the number of analysts following a stock, the dispersion of their forecasts, the volatility of earnings, the sector and country classification of the covered company, and its market capitalization influence the accuracy of the consensus earnings forecast.
