Do Speculators Drive Crude Oil Prices? PDF Download
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Author: Jochen Möbert
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 12
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Book Description
This article discusses the influence of speculators in the futures market on crude oil prices. The results suggest the dispersion in beliefs influences both crude oil prices and price volatility. -- Crude oil market ; futures market ; speculation
Author: Jochen Möbert
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 12
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Book Description
This article discusses the influence of speculators in the futures market on crude oil prices. The results suggest the dispersion in beliefs influences both crude oil prices and price volatility. -- Crude oil market ; futures market ; speculation
Author: Mary Grace Flannery
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 74
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Book Description
Volatile oil prices in the United States in recent years have led to a focus on speculation in the crude oil markets. Some legislators and the public place the blame for high oil prices on speculators and aim to impose greater regulation on this category of traders. However, do speculators influence price in the crude oil market, or can fundamental factors sufficiently explain the price of crude oil? This thesis examines the pros and cons of speculative activity in the U.S. crude oil market, conducts a quantitative analysis to determine the relationship between speculative activity and crude oil prices, discusses proposed legislation, and endorses selected legislation for greater disclosure of OTC derivatives.
Author: Samya Beidas-Strom
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498333486
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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Book Description
How much does speculation contribute to oil price volatility? We revisit this contentious question by estimating a sign-restricted structural vector autoregression (SVAR). First, using a simple storage model, we show that revisions to expectations regarding oil market fundamentals and the effect of mispricing in oil derivative markets can be observationally equivalent in a SVAR model of the world oil market à la Kilian and Murphy (2013), since both imply a positive co-movement of oil prices and inventories. Second, we impose additional restrictions on the set of admissible models embodying the assumption that the impact from noise trading shocks in oil derivative markets is temporary. Our additional restrictions effectively put a bound on the contribution of speculation to short-term oil price volatility (lying between 3 and 22 percent). This estimated short-run impact is smaller than that of flow demand shocks but possibly larger than that of flow supply shocks.
Author: Bassam Fattouh
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781907555442
Category : Petroleum products
Languages : en
Pages : 25
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Book Description
Author: Michael Hall Yan
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 104
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Book Description
This paper is intended to better understand the effects of speculation on crude oil prices. While speculation has many benefits such as increasing market liquidity and bearing market risks that other wish to offset, speculation can also create unwanted market volatility and economic bubbles. During the past decade, crude oil prices have been extremely volatile causing increased controversy between investors and regulators regarding the role that oil speculation has played in the price of crude oil. This report examines the relationship between crude oil spot and futures prices to determine the role arbitragers, speculators, and hedgers have had in crude oil pricing.
Author: Ikhlaas Gurrib
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 13
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Book Description
Using a VECM model, findings indicate significant short-run causality running from speculators' trading activity to futures prices. However, the magnitude of this effect was small. Long-run causality, on the other hand, runs from prices to speculators' activity and not vice versa, whenever spot prices, futures prices and speculators' net positions are cointegrated. Using conditional standard deviation as a proxy to volatility, findings support no significant relationship between large speculators trading activity and volatility in the U.S. Crude Oil futures market. Using conditional variance, however, supported a significant negative relationship between trading activity and volatility. Recursive estimates of standard deviation were more volatile than its variance counterpart, due to the higher sensitivity of standard deviation to futures prices.
Author: Alessandro Cologni
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Electronic book
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Author: Massood V. Samii
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Petroleum industry and trade
Languages : en
Pages : 29
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Book Description
Author: Samuel P. Irvin
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Speculation
Languages : en
Pages : 78
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Book Description
Author: Robert P. Murphy
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
ISBN: 1596986174
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 244
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Book Description
Most commonly accepted economic "facts" are wrong Here's the unvarnished, politically incorrect truth. The liberal media and propagandists masquerading as educators have filled the world--and deformed public policy--with politically correct errors about capitalism and economics in general. In The Politically Incorrect Guide(tm) to Capitalism, myth-busting professor Robert P. Murphy, a scholar and frequent speaker at the Ludwig von Mises Institute, cuts through all their nonsense, shattering liberal myths and fashionable socialist cliches to set the record straight.
