Determinants of U.S. Corporate Credit Spreads PDF Download
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Author: Ortenca Kume
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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This thesis deals with various issues regarding determinants of US corporate credit spreads. These spreads are estimated as the difference between yields to maturity for corporate bonds and default-free instruments (Treasury bonds) of the same maturity. Corporate credit spreads are considered as measures of default risk. However, the premium required by investors for holding risky rather than risk-free bonds will incorporate a compensation not only for the default risk but also for other factors related to corporate bonds such as market liquidity or tax differential between corporate and Treasury bonds. In this study we firstly examine the relationship between bond ratings and credit spreads given that bond rating changes are expected to carry some informational value for debt investors. The findings indicate that bond ratings generally carry some informational value for corporate bond investors. The Granger causal relationship is more evident for negative watch lists and during periods of uncertainty in financial markets. In line with previous studies, our results suggest that changes in credit spreads are significantly related to interest rate levels, systematic risk factors (Fama and French) factors and equity returns.
Author: Ortenca Kume
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
This thesis deals with various issues regarding determinants of US corporate credit spreads. These spreads are estimated as the difference between yields to maturity for corporate bonds and default-free instruments (Treasury bonds) of the same maturity. Corporate credit spreads are considered as measures of default risk. However, the premium required by investors for holding risky rather than risk-free bonds will incorporate a compensation not only for the default risk but also for other factors related to corporate bonds such as market liquidity or tax differential between corporate and Treasury bonds. In this study we firstly examine the relationship between bond ratings and credit spreads given that bond rating changes are expected to carry some informational value for debt investors. The findings indicate that bond ratings generally carry some informational value for corporate bond investors. The Granger causal relationship is more evident for negative watch lists and during periods of uncertainty in financial markets. In line with previous studies, our results suggest that changes in credit spreads are significantly related to interest rate levels, systematic risk factors (Fama and French) factors and equity returns.
Author: Sungmin Jo
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 35
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Book Description
This study investigates determinants of credit spreads on U.S. dollar-denominated Asian corporate bonds. Using a country-level unbalanced panel dataset of Asian corporate bond indices, I find that global factors including U.S. corporate bond spreads and the U.S. long-term Treasury yield are main determinants of Asian corporate bond spreads. Principal component analysis also demonstrates that only a few variables account for the variation in Asian corporate bond spreads. Moreover, global factors have the greatest impact on credit spreads in the financial sector and the smallest impact on credit spreads in the utility sector. Finally, my results show that Asian corporate credit spreads respond more substantially to the U.S. monetary easing than to the U.S. monetary tightening, and they also react more strongly to widening U.S. credit spreads than to narrowing U.S. credit spreads.
Author: Bo Wang
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 21
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Book Description
Based on the structural model, macroeconomic and liquidity factors are tested against credit spread changes in American OTC corporate bonds. I discovered that the volatility of long run Treasury yield has even greater explanatory power than the yield itself. Macroeconomic indicators, such as Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index, have significant explanatory power over credit spread changes while there is only weak evidence that a common liquidity factor is missing from the model.
Author: Snorre Lindset
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 30
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In this paper we analyze the credit spread on bonds rated Baa that exceeds the credit spread on bonds rated AAA (excess spread) in the US corporate bond market over the time period 1919-2006. We find several factors to be important determinants for the excess spread. The volatility in the stock market is found to be an important factor. For subsets of the sample period also inflation seems to be an important determinant. Yields on government bonds are both statistically and economically significant, but have the opposite sign of what is theoretically predicted.
Author: Astrid Van Landschoot
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 29
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This paper presents a systematic comparison between the determinants of euro and US dollar yield spread dynamics. The results show that US dollar yield spreads are significantly more affected by changes in the level and the slope of the default-free term structure and the stock market return and volatility. Surprisingly, euro yield spreads are strongly affected by the US (and not the euro) level and slope. This confirms the dominance of US interest rates in the corporate bond markets. Interestingly, I find that liquidity risk is higher for US dollar corporate bonds than euro corporate bonds. For both regions, the effect of changes in the bid-ask spread is mainly significant during periods of high liquidity risk. Finally, the results indicate that the credit cycle as measured by the region-specific default probability significantly increases US yield spreads. This is not the case for euro yield spreads.
Author: Max Kettner
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 160
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Author: Eduardo A. Cavallo
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 30
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This study explores the determinants of corporate bond spreads in emerging markets economies. Using a largely unexploited dataset, the paper finds that corporate bond spreads are determined by firm-specific variables, bond characteristics, macroeconomic conditions, sovereign risk, and global factors. A variance decomposition analysis shows that firm-level characteristics account for the larger share of the variance. In addition, the paper finds two asymmetries. The first is in line with the sovereign ceiling "lite" hypothesis which states that the transfer of risk from the sovereign to the private sector is less than 1 to 1. The second is consistent with the popular notion that panics are common in emerging markets where investors are less informed and more prone to herding.
Author: Estelle P. Roche
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Author: Biao Guo
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 53
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This paper studies the macroeconomic determinants of the term structures of Treasury yields, corporate bond credit spreads, and corporate bond liquidity spreads in a unified no-arbitrage framework. Four economic factors, monetary conditions, inflation, real output, and financial market volatility, are extracted from a set of macroeconomic and financial data series. During the pre-crisis period, volatility shocks decrease Treasury yields and widen both credit spreads and liquidity spreads for all rating classes, and credit spreads widen as monetary conditions tighten, but the effects of inflation and real output are insignificant. In times of stress, financial market volatility has a similar impact and the impacts of inflation and real output become significant as well. Ignoring the liquidity component of corporate yield spreads is shown to lead to inaccurate estimation of the impacts of economic factors on corporate credit spreads. The paper also provides evidence of ”flight-to-liquidity” behavior which strengthens in bad times and sheds light on the negative correlation between the risk-free rate and corporate yield spreads as well as on the positive correlation between credit spreads and liquidity spreads.
Author: Sebastian Wilde
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
ISBN: 334670761X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 79
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Master's Thesis from the year 2022 in the subject Economics - Finance, grade: 1,7, University of Hagen (Fakultät für Wirtschaftswissenschaft, Lehrstuhl für Bank- und Finanzwirtschaft), language: English, abstract: Corporate bond credit spreads are much larger than historical default rates, which leads to an unexplained gap between the default premium component and total credit spread. This gap is referred to as the "credit spread puzzle" in the literature and has driven the discussion of the components of credit spreads in the past decades. The size of each component affects the decision of whether to purchase a particular class of bonds; this underlines its importance in risk management, portfolio management, and valuation. The first goal of the thesis is to provide a comprehensive review of the current state of research on how to decompose credit spreads and estimate their parts. Second, in an empirical study, the systematic risk in current EUR-denominated credit spreads is estimated and compared to the results of Elton et al. (2001). Furthermore, I analyze the regime-dependence of credit spreads for different cross-sections, as systematic risk has proven important in crisis periods. Finally, implications for the calculation of debt beta are derived as in business valuations it is possible to use a debt beta if the debt of the valuation object is subject to a systematic risk that leads to a signifcant risk premium demanded by debt providers. I show that the systematic part of the credit spread for observed EUR-denominated bond spreads from 2009 to 2021 can be assumed higher than in the US bond market, is regime-dependent and would have direct implications on the calculation and relevance of a debt beta for business valuations.
