Crude Oil Prices: Trends and Forecast PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download Crude Oil Prices: Trends and Forecast PDF full book. Access full book title Crude Oil Prices: Trends and Forecast by Noureddine Krichene. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: Noureddine Krichene
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ISBN: 9781451869927
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 23
Get Book
Book Description
Following record low interest rates and fast depreciating U.S. dollar, crude oil prices became under rising pressure and seemed boundless. Oil price process parameters changed drastically in 2003M5-2007M10 toward consistently rising prices. Short-term forecasting would imply persistence of observed trends, as market fundamentals and underlying monetary policies were supportive of these trends. Market expectations derived from option prices anticipated further surge in oil prices and allowed significant probability for right tail events. Given explosive trends in other commodities prices, depreciating currencies, and weakening financial conditions, recent trends in oil prices might not persist further without triggering world economic recession, regressive oil supply, as oil producers became wary about inflation. Restoring stable oil markets, through restraining monetary policy, is essential for durable growth and price stability.
Author: Noureddine Krichene
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ISBN: 9781451869927
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 23
Get Book
Book Description
Following record low interest rates and fast depreciating U.S. dollar, crude oil prices became under rising pressure and seemed boundless. Oil price process parameters changed drastically in 2003M5-2007M10 toward consistently rising prices. Short-term forecasting would imply persistence of observed trends, as market fundamentals and underlying monetary policies were supportive of these trends. Market expectations derived from option prices anticipated further surge in oil prices and allowed significant probability for right tail events. Given explosive trends in other commodities prices, depreciating currencies, and weakening financial conditions, recent trends in oil prices might not persist further without triggering world economic recession, regressive oil supply, as oil producers became wary about inflation. Restoring stable oil markets, through restraining monetary policy, is essential for durable growth and price stability.
Author: Adalat Muradov
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3030114945
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 184
Get Book
Book Description
This book develops new econometric models to analyze and forecast the world market price of oil. The authors construct ARIMA and Trend models to forecast oil prices, taking into consideration outside factors such as political turmoil and solar activity on the price of oil. Incorporating historical and contemporary market trends, the authors are able to make medium and long-term forecasting results. In the first chapter, the authors perform a broad spectrum analysis of the theoretical and methodological challenges of oil price forecasting. In the second chapter, the authors build and test the econometric models needed for the forecasts. The final chapter of the text brings together the conclusions they reached through applying the models to their research. This book will be useful to students in economics, particularly those in upper-level courses on forecasting and econometrics as well as to politicians and policy makers in oil-producing countries, oil importing countries, and relevant international organizations.
Author: Mr.Manmohan S. Kumar
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451951116
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 54
Get Book
Book Description
This paper undertakes an investigation into the efficiency of the crude oil futures market and the forecasting accuracy of futures prices. Efficiency of the market is analysed in terms of the expected excess returns to speculation in the futures market. Accuracy of futures prices is compared with that of forecasts using alternative techniques, including time series and econometric models, as well as judgemental forecasts. The paper also explores the predictive power of futures prices by comparing the forecasting accuracy of end-of-month prices with weekly and monthly averages, using a variety of different weighting schemes. Finally, the paper investigates whether the forecasts from using futures prices can be improved by incorporating information from other forecasting techniques.
Author: Benjamin Beckers
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513523899
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 32
Get Book
Book Description
We carry out an ex post assessment of popular models used to forecast oil prices and propose a host of alternative VAR models based on traditional global macroeconomic and oil market aggregates. While the exact specification of VAR models for nominal oil price prediction is still open to debate, the bias and underprediction in futures and random walk forecasts are larger across all horizons in relation to a large set of VAR specifications. The VAR forecasts generally have the smallest average forecast errors and the highest accuracy, with most specifications outperforming futures and random walk forecasts for horizons up to two years. This calls for caution in reliance on futures or the random walk for forecasting, particularly for near term predictions. Despite the overall strength of VAR models, we highlight some performance instability, with small alterations in specifications, subsamples or lag lengths providing widely different forecasts at times. Combining futures, random walk and VAR models for forecasting have merit for medium term horizons.
Author: Mark Rodekohr
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Government publications
Languages : en
Pages : 54
Get Book
Book Description
Author: Mr. Aasim M. Husain
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 151357227X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 41
Get Book
Book Description
The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.
Author: Bassam Fattouh
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781907555442
Category : Petroleum products
Languages : en
Pages : 25
Get Book
Book Description
Author: Mr.Rabah Arezki
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475572360
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 30
Get Book
Book Description
This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to explore the effects of: a change in world GDP growth; a change in the efficiency of oil usage; and a change in the supply of oil. Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, our analysis suggests that an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.
Author: William Morle Brown
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 148
Get Book
Book Description
The widespread need for a realistic perspective on the likely trends in future petroleum prices first became obvious during the 1970s, and again in the mid-1980s. Businessmen associated with the petroleum trade need a rational outlook on prices; judging from past experience, however, they seem ready to adopt whatever conventional wisdom emerges about likely future trends. One of the purposes of this analysis is to determine what led earlier forecasts so far astray, and to set forth some important lessons that could lead to an improved forecasting methodology. A second purpose is to provide an analysis of the current situation in the international oil market and its implications for future petroleum prices over the near-term, mid-term, and long-term. By applying some realistic judgments about the inherent uncertainties in the principal factors likely to affect those prices, a perspective is developed that is intended to be helpful to buyers, sellers, and governments around the world, even though it does not rest upon a single trajectory of likely future petroleum prices. Keywords: Economic analysis; Forecasting; Natural gas; Crude oil.
Author: Roberto F. Aguilera
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1107110017
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 253
Get Book
Book Description
This book explains why oil prices rose so spectacularly in the past and examines how they will be suppressed in the future.
