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Author: Oghenovo A. Obrimah
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 39
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Book Description
This study finds crude oil prices (`oil prices') affect market or portfolio expected returns on the NSE only via inducement of changes to risk aversion parameters of the `representative agent' who has exposure to both stock market return volatility risk and oil price risk. I refer to this effect as the `risk' effect on stock returns. Independent of effects on risk aversion parameters, changes to oil prices do not have any direct, equivalently `demand' effect on market or portfolio returns. Prior studies of effects of oil prices on stock returns test for presence of the demand effect, but do not allow for possibility of inferring of the risk effect. Given the empirical framework in this study embeds the demand effect as a special case, empirical findings provide a basis for reexamination of importance and/or robustness of the demand effect. As developed, the intertemporal framework enables inferences as to the extent to which arbitrage pricing factors, e.g. crude oil prices can be characterized to derive relevance for asset pricing from interactions with preferences of agents within stock markets.
Author: Oghenovo A. Obrimah
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 39
Get Book Here
Book Description
This study finds crude oil prices (`oil prices') affect market or portfolio expected returns on the NSE only via inducement of changes to risk aversion parameters of the `representative agent' who has exposure to both stock market return volatility risk and oil price risk. I refer to this effect as the `risk' effect on stock returns. Independent of effects on risk aversion parameters, changes to oil prices do not have any direct, equivalently `demand' effect on market or portfolio returns. Prior studies of effects of oil prices on stock returns test for presence of the demand effect, but do not allow for possibility of inferring of the risk effect. Given the empirical framework in this study embeds the demand effect as a special case, empirical findings provide a basis for reexamination of importance and/or robustness of the demand effect. As developed, the intertemporal framework enables inferences as to the extent to which arbitrage pricing factors, e.g. crude oil prices can be characterized to derive relevance for asset pricing from interactions with preferences of agents within stock markets.
Author: Robert A. Jarrow
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Derivative securities
Languages : en
Pages : 472
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Book Description
Written by a number of authors, this text is aimed at market practitioners and applies the latest stochastic volatility research findings to the analysis of stock prices. It includes commentary and analysis based on real-life situations.
Author: Samya Beidas-Strom
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498333486
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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Book Description
How much does speculation contribute to oil price volatility? We revisit this contentious question by estimating a sign-restricted structural vector autoregression (SVAR). First, using a simple storage model, we show that revisions to expectations regarding oil market fundamentals and the effect of mispricing in oil derivative markets can be observationally equivalent in a SVAR model of the world oil market à la Kilian and Murphy (2013), since both imply a positive co-movement of oil prices and inventories. Second, we impose additional restrictions on the set of admissible models embodying the assumption that the impact from noise trading shocks in oil derivative markets is temporary. Our additional restrictions effectively put a bound on the contribution of speculation to short-term oil price volatility (lying between 3 and 22 percent). This estimated short-run impact is smaller than that of flow demand shocks but possibly larger than that of flow supply shocks.
Author: Craig Pirrong
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1139501976
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 238
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Book Description
Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.
Author: Jeffrey A. Frankel
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226260216
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 428
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Book Description
This timely volume addresses three important recent trends in the internationalization of United States equity markets: extensive market integration through foreign investment and links among stock prices around the world; increasing securitization as countries such as Japan come to rely more than ever before on markets in equities and bonds at the expense of banks; and the opening of national financial systems of newly industrializing countries to international financial flows and institutions, as governments remove capital controls and other barriers. Eight essays examine such issues as the current extent of international market integration, gains to U.S. investors through international diversification, home-country bias in investing, the role of time and location around the world in stock trading, and the behavior of country funds. Other, long-standing questions about equity markets are also addressed, including market efficiency and the accuracy of models of expected returns, with a particular focus on variances, covariances, and the price of risk according to the Capital Asset Pricing Model.
Author: John Y. Campbell
Publisher: OUP Oxford
ISBN: 019160691X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 272
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Book Description
Academic finance has had a remarkable impact on many financial services. Yet long-term investors have received curiously little guidance from academic financial economists. Mean-variance analysis, developed almost fifty years ago, has provided a basic paradigm for portfolio choice. This approach usefully emphasizes the ability of diversification to reduce risk, but it ignores several critically important factors. Most notably, the analysis is static; it assumes that investors care only about risks to wealth one period ahead. However, many investors—-both individuals and institutions such as charitable foundations or universities—-seek to finance a stream of consumption over a long lifetime. In addition, mean-variance analysis treats financial wealth in isolation from income. Long-term investors typically receive a stream of income and use it, along with financial wealth, to support their consumption. At the theoretical level, it is well understood that the solution to a long-term portfolio choice problem can be very different from the solution to a short-term problem. Long-term investors care about intertemporal shocks to investment opportunities and labor income as well as shocks to wealth itself, and they may use financial assets to hedge their intertemporal risks. This should be important in practice because there is a great deal of empirical evidence that investment opportunities—-both interest rates and risk premia on bonds and stocks—-vary through time. Yet this insight has had little influence on investment practice because it is hard to solve for optimal portfolios in intertemporal models. This book seeks to develop the intertemporal approach into an empirical paradigm that can compete with the standard mean-variance analysis. The book shows that long-term inflation-indexed bonds are the riskless asset for long-term investors, it explains the conditions under which stocks are safer assets for long-term than for short-term investors, and it shows how labor income influences portfolio choice. These results shed new light on the rules of thumb used by financial planners. The book explains recent advances in both analytical and numerical methods, and shows how they can be used to understand the portfolio choice problems of long-term investors.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Construction industry
Languages : en
Pages : 56
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Book Description
Author: Wing-Keung Wong
Publisher: Mdpi AG
ISBN: 9783036530802
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 232
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Book Description
The Efficient Market Hypothesis believes that it is impossible for an investor to outperform the market because all available information is already built into stock prices. However, some anomalies could persist in stock markets while some other anomalies could appear, disappear and re-appear again without any warning. A Special Issue on "Efficiency and Anomalies in Stock Markets" will be devoted to advancements in the theoretical development of market efficiency and anomaly in the Stock Market, as well as applications in Stock Market efficiency and anomalies.
Author: G. Constantinides
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 9780444513632
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 698
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Book Description
Arbitrage, State Prices and Portfolio Theory / Philip h. Dybvig and Stephen a. Ross / - Intertemporal Asset Pricing Theory / Darrell Duffle / - Tests of Multifactor Pricing Models, Volatility Bounds and Portfolio Performance / Wayne E. Ferson / - Consumption-Based Asset Pricing / John y Campbell / - The Equity Premium in Retrospect / Rainish Mehra and Edward c. Prescott / - Anomalies and Market Efficiency / William Schwert / - Are Financial Assets Priced Locally or Globally? / G. Andrew Karolyi and Rene M. Stuli / - Microstructure and Asset Pricing / David Easley and Maureen O'hara / - A Survey of Behavioral Finance / Nicholas Barberis and Richard Thaler / - Derivatives / Robert E. Whaley / - Fixed-Income Pricing / Qiang Dai and Kenneth J. Singleton.
Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1135179778
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 402
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Book Description
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
