Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change PDF Download
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Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309380979
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 187
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Book Description
As climate has warmed over recent years, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded across the globe. Climate models simulate such changes in extreme events, and some of the reasons for the changes are well understood. Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts. Even with evidence of these broad trends, scientists cautioned in the past that individual weather events couldn't be attributed to climate change. Now, with advances in understanding the climate science behind extreme events and the science of extreme event attribution, such blanket statements may not be accurate. The relatively young science of extreme event attribution seeks to tease out the influence of human-cause climate change from other factors, such as natural sources of variability like El Niño, as contributors to individual extreme events. Event attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event. As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk, and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities.
Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309380979
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 187
Get Book Here
Book Description
As climate has warmed over recent years, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded across the globe. Climate models simulate such changes in extreme events, and some of the reasons for the changes are well understood. Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts. Even with evidence of these broad trends, scientists cautioned in the past that individual weather events couldn't be attributed to climate change. Now, with advances in understanding the climate science behind extreme events and the science of extreme event attribution, such blanket statements may not be accurate. The relatively young science of extreme event attribution seeks to tease out the influence of human-cause climate change from other factors, such as natural sources of variability like El Niño, as contributors to individual extreme events. Event attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event. As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk, and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities.
Author: Ceballos Francisco, Hernandez Manuel A., Paz Cynthia
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 56
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Book Description
This paper examines the continuing effects of COVID-19 and exposure to weather extremes on income, dietary, and migration outcomes in rural Guatemala. We rely on a comprehensive longitudinal survey of 1,612 smallholder farmers collected over three survey rounds in 2019, 2020, and 2021. We find improvements in incomes, food security, and dietary diversity in 2021 relative to 2020, but with levels still below pre-pandemic ones in 2019. We also find a substantial increase in the intention to emigrate that was not observed in the onset of the pandemic. In terms of the channels mediating the variations in dietary diversity and migration intentions, income shocks seem to have played a role, in contrast to direct exposure to the virus, local mobility restrictions, and food market disruptions. Importantly, households exposed to ETA and IOTA tropical storms, in addition to COVID-19, were considerably more prone to exhibit larger increases in the prevalence of moderate or severe food insecure episodes and larger decreases in their diet quality. The study provides novel evidence on vulnerable households’ wellbeing in the aftermath of a global crisis, including the effects of compound shocks.
Author: Alice C. Hill
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0197549721
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 273
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Book Description
COVID-19 exposed the world's failure to prepare for the worst -- can we learn to build back better? The COVID-19 pandemic has hit our world on a scale beyond living memory, taking millions of lives and leading to a lockdown of communities worldwide. A pandemic, much like climate change, acts as a threat multiplier, increasing vulnerability to harm, economic impoverishment, and the breakdown of social systems. Even more concerning, communities severely impacted by the coronavirus still remain vulnerable to other types of hazards, such as those brought by accelerating climate change. The catastrophic risks of pandemics and climate change carry deep uncertainty as to when they will occur, how they will unfold, and how much damage they will do. The most important question is how we can face these risks to minimize them most. The Fight for Climate after COVID-19 draws on the troubled and uneven COVID-19 experience to illustrate the critical need to ramp up resilience rapidly and effectively on a global scale. After years of working alongside public health and resilience experts crafting policy to build both pandemic and climate change preparedness, Alice C. Hill exposes parallels between the underutilized measures that governments should have taken to contain the spread of COVID-19 -- such as early action, cross-border planning, and bolstering emergency preparation -- and the steps leaders can take now to mitigate the impacts of climate change. Through practical analyses of current policy and thoughtful guidance for successful climate adaptation, The Fight for Climate after COVID-19 reveals that, just as our society has transformed itself to meet the challenge of coronavirus, so too will we need to adapt our thinking and our policies to combat the ever-increasing threat of climate change. Unapologetic and clear-eyed, The Fight for Climate after COVID-19 helps us understand why the time has come to prepare for the world as it will be, rather than as it once was.
Author: Francisco Ceballos
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Author: Laurence L. Delina
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1108976417
Category : Law
Languages : en
Pages : 175
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Book Description
The Covid pandemic has amplified the hardships people are experiencing from human-induced climate change and its impact on weather extremes. Those in the Majority World are most effected by such global crises, and the pandemic has exposed the vulnerabilities of these populations while highlighting the differences between them and those fortunate to live in the Minority World. This book presents an overview of the impact of the climate emergency punctuated by a pandemic, discussing the expanding inequalities and deteriorating spaces for democratic public engagement. Pandemic responses demonstrate how future technological, engineering, political, social, and behavioural strategies could be constructed in response to other crises. Using a critical analysis of these responses, this book proposes sociotechnical alternatives and just approaches to adapt to cascading crises in the Majority World. It will be valuable for social science students and researchers, policymakers, and anyone interested in inequality and vulnerability in developing countries.
Author: Lara Schwarz
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Background: While the detrimental health effects of extreme heat and wildfire smoke are well established in high-income countries, there is substantially less evidence in low and middle-income settings. This dissertation research aimed to quantify the effects of extreme heat and wildfire smoke through a social vulnerability approach, using the San Diego-Tijuana border as a context to study differential impacts. Methods: This dissertation includes three studies examining the differential impacts of extreme heat and wildfire smoke in a binational context. The first study evaluates the spatial variation in the effect of extreme heat across municipalities in Mexico using a within-community-matched design with a Bayesian Hierarchical model extension and meta-regression to explore socioeconomic drivers. In the second study, we used the San Diego-Tijuana region as a unique context to study the differential effects of wildfire smoke on cardio-respiratory hospitalizations across the border using synthetic control methods (SCM). The third study also used SCM to explore the potential role of wildfire smoke in driving COVID-19 mortality in the San Diego-Tijuana border region. Results: In the first study, we found substantial spatial heterogeneity in the effects of heat across Mexico at the municipality level, and disadvantaged social conditions such as low education, poor housing conditions, and higher marginalization were important predictors of these differences. In the second study, wildfire smoke increased cardio-respiratory hospitalizations in the San Diego-Tijuana border region, with a higher, albeit imprecise, relative change in Tijuana likely driven by a higher poverty rate and increased social vulnerability. Lastly, in the third study, no strong effect of wildfire smoke on COVID-19 mortality was observed in either San Diego or Tijuana. Conclusion: The results of this dissertation indicate that social vulnerability is an important factor in understanding the health risks of extreme heat and wildfire smoke. We hope that highlighting the differential susceptibility of populations to these effects can help inform binational efforts to protect those that are most vulnerable to extreme weather events which will be increasingly prevalent and severe in the context of climate change.
Author: Robert M. Rauber
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781524931681
Category : Meteorology
Languages : en
Pages : 645
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Book Description
Author: Sultan Ayoub Meo
Publisher: Cambridge Scholars Publishing
ISBN: 1527586073
Category : Medical
Languages : en
Pages : 176
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Book Description
This book highlights the relationship between climate and the COVID-19 pandemic, and discusses various biological and epidemiological trends of the pandemic. It provides insights into wide-ranging topics allied to medicine, the environment, weather conditions, environmental pollution, human rights, and emerging global scenarios, and explores the challenges faced by frontline healthcare workers. The volume also highlights the need for synchronizing the social and political order to face this pandemic, considers upcoming challenges related to climate and COVID-19, and debates future forecasts ab.
Author: Rais Akhtar
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 303138878X
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 473
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Book Description
The objective of the present edited book is to encompass studies from both developed and developing countries of Asia, Africa Europe, and Americas, to understand and present a comparative scenario of the climate change and other environmental determinants of health and disease in geographically diversified countries. Environment and health perspective dates back to Hippocrates treatise written 400 B.C.E. In his book On Airs, Waters and Places, Hippocrates described diseases as associated with environmental conditions, “Whoever wishes to investigate medicine properly, should proceed thus: in the first place to consider the seasons of the year, and what effects each of them produces for they are not at all alike, but differ much from themselves in regard to their changes. Then the winds, the hot and the cold, especially such as are common to all countries, and then such as are peculiar to each locality. We must also consider the qualities of the waters, for as they differ from one another in taste and weight, so also do they differ much in their qualities. In the same manner, when one comes into a city to which he is a stranger, he ought to consider its situation, how it lies as to the winds and the rising of the sun; for its influence is not the same whether it lies to the north or the south, to the rising or to the setting sun”. There has been a greater emphasis in the last four decades on understanding environmental factors which affect human health, after United Nations established Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988 aimed at to evaluate research on changing environmental condition, particularly climate change and its impacts on human wellbeing, including human health, as consequences of extreme heat waves conditions, sea level rise, forced migration, air pollution, droughts, and wildfires. From these studies, risk levels of vulnerable populations and regions can be assessed and level of resilience of healthcare infrastructure that may be used in environmental health policy and equity of these countries.
Author: Jay Lemery
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119670012
Category : Medical
Languages : en
Pages : 672
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Book Description
Learn more about the impact of global warming and climate change on human health and disease The Second Edition of Global Climate Change and Human Health delivers an accessible and comprehensive exploration of the rapidly accelerating and increasingly ubiquitous effects of climate change and global warming on human health and disease. The distinguished and accomplished authors discuss the health impacts of the economic, climatological, and geopolitical effects of global warming. You'll learn about: The effect of extreme weather events on public health and the effects of changing meteorological conditions on human health How changes in hydrology impact the spread of waterborne disease and noninfectious waterborne threats Adaptation to, and the mitigation and governance of, climate change, including international perspectives on climate change adaptation Perfect for students of public health, medicine, nursing, and pharmacy, Global Climate Change and Human Health, Second Edition is an invaluable resource for anyone with an interest in the intersection of climate and human health and disease.
