Constraining Climate Model Properties Using Optimal Fingerprint Detection Methods PDF Download
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Author: Chris Eliot Forest
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 46
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Book Description
(Cont.) The MIT model permits one to systematically vary the model's climate sensitivity (by varying the strength of the cloud feedback) and rate of mixing of heat into the deep ocean and determine how the goodness-of-fit with observations depends on these factors. This approach provides an efficient framework for interpreting detection and attribution results in physical terms. For the aerosol forcing set in the middle of the IPCC range, two sets of model parameters are rejected as being implausible when the model response is compared with observations. The first set corresponds to high climate sensitivity and low heat uptake by the deep ocean. The second set corresponds to low sensitivities for all values of heat uptake. These results demonstrate that fingerprint patterns must be carefully chosen, if their detection is to reduce the uncertainty of physically important model parameters which affect projections of climate change.
Author: Chris Eliot Forest
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 46
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Book Description
(Cont.) The MIT model permits one to systematically vary the model's climate sensitivity (by varying the strength of the cloud feedback) and rate of mixing of heat into the deep ocean and determine how the goodness-of-fit with observations depends on these factors. This approach provides an efficient framework for interpreting detection and attribution results in physical terms. For the aerosol forcing set in the middle of the IPCC range, two sets of model parameters are rejected as being implausible when the model response is compared with observations. The first set corresponds to high climate sensitivity and low heat uptake by the deep ocean. The second set corresponds to low sensitivities for all values of heat uptake. These results demonstrate that fingerprint patterns must be carefully chosen, if their detection is to reduce the uncertainty of physically important model parameters which affect projections of climate change.
Author: Mike Christie
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119960967
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 285
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Book Description
Several points of disagreement exist between different modelling traditions as to whether complex models are always better than simpler models, as to how to combine results from different models and how to propagate model uncertainty into forecasts. This book represents the result of collaboration between scientists from many disciplines to show how these conflicts can be resolved. Key Features: Introduces important concepts in modelling, outlining different traditions in the use of simple and complex modelling in statistics. Provides numerous case studies on complex modelling, such as climate change, flood risk and new drug development. Concentrates on varying models, including flood risk analysis models, the petrol industry forecasts and summarizes the evolution of water distribution systems. Written by experienced statisticians and engineers in order to facilitate communication between modellers in different disciplines. Provides a glossary giving terms commonly used in different modelling traditions. This book provides a much-needed reference guide to approaching statistical modelling. Scientists involved with modelling complex systems in areas such as climate change, flood prediction and prevention, financial market modelling and systems engineering will benefit from this book. It will also be a useful source of modelling case histories.
Author: Manish Parashar
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470558016
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 542
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Book Description
A unique investigation of the state of the art in design, architectures, and implementations of advanced computational infrastructures and the applications they support Emerging large-scale adaptive scientific and engineering applications are requiring an increasing amount of computing and storage resources to provide new insights into complex systems. Due to their runtime adaptivity, these applications exhibit complicated behaviors that are highly dynamic, heterogeneous, and unpredictable—and therefore require full-fledged computational infrastructure support for problem solving, runtime management, and dynamic partitioning/balancing. This book presents a comprehensive study of the design, architecture, and implementation of advanced computational infrastructures as well as the adaptive applications developed and deployed using these infrastructures from different perspectives, including system architects, software engineers, computational scientists, and application scientists. Providing insights into recent research efforts and projects, the authors include descriptions and experiences pertaining to the realistic modeling of adaptive applications on parallel and distributed systems. The first part of the book focuses on high-performance adaptive scientific applications and includes chapters that describe high-impact, real-world application scenarios in order to motivate the need for advanced computational engines as well as to outline their requirements. The second part identifies popular and widely used adaptive computational infrastructures. The third part focuses on the more specific partitioning and runtime management schemes underlying these computational toolkits. Presents representative problem-solving environments and infrastructures, runtime management strategies, partitioning and decomposition methods, and adaptive and dynamic applications Provides a unique collection of selected solutions and infrastructures that have significant impact with sufficient introductory materials Includes descriptions and experiences pertaining to the realistic modeling of adaptive applications on parallel and distributed systems The cross-disciplinary approach of this reference delivers a comprehensive discussion of the requirements, design challenges, underlying design philosophies, architectures, and implementation/deployment details of advanced computational infrastructures. It makes it a valuable resource for advanced courses in computational science and software/systems engineering for senior undergraduate and graduate students, as well as for computational and computer scientists, software developers, and other industry professionals.
Author: Alexander Golub
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1134041209
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 346
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Book Description
This book presents a compendium of methodologies for evaluating the economic impact of technological innovation upon climate-change policy. There is a broad consensus on the key elements of climate-change science and agreement that near-term actions are needed to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. However, there is little agreement on the costs and benefits of climate policy. Any policy implementation will result in an irreversible but environment-improving investment in alternative technologies; this change will generate immediately-realized costs but significantly-delayed benefits. Hence, a critical element in policy selection is the inherent uncertainty in the climate and economy that can be expected over time.
Author: Patrick J. Michaels
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN: 9780742549234
Category : Nature
Languages : en
Pages : 312
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Book Description
Shattered Consensus: The True State of Global Warming convincingly demonstrates the remarkable differences between what we commonly read about global warming and what is really happening. Nine chapters describe major problems with computer simulations of future climate that are the basis for wrenching policies being proposed by world leaders. Anyone who reads this book will come away with a new appreciation of the complexity of the climate issue and will question the need for expensive policies that are likely to have little or no detectable effect on the planet's temperature.
Author: Charles Perrings
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0199560153
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 286
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Book Description
This volume addresses the issue of biological invasions from both an ecological and economic perspective, providing an in-depth evaluation of the science and its implications for managing the causes and consequences of one of the most pressing environmental issues facing humans today.
Author: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (U.S.)
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Atmospheric physics
Languages : en
Pages : 280
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Book Description
Author: Chris Eliot Forest
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 11
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Book Description
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 246
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Book Description
Author: Robert S. J. Sparks
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
ISBN:
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 428
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Book Description
What does the 21st century hold for Earth system science and geophysics? How can we optimize past discoveries and current breakthroughs? What problems continue to defy resolution? This volume responds to such questions in 30 papers by leading scientists from selected core disciplines. Papers are derived from prestigious Union Symposia at the 2003 General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG).
