Completing the Market: Generating Shadow CDS Spreads by Machine Learning PDF Download
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Author: Nan Hu
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513525182
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 37
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Book Description
We compared the predictive performance of a series of machine learning and traditional methods for monthly CDS spreads, using firms’ accounting-based, market-based and macroeconomics variables for a time period of 2006 to 2016. We find that ensemble machine learning methods (Bagging, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest) strongly outperform other estimators, and Bagging particularly stands out in terms of accuracy. Traditional credit risk models using OLS techniques have the lowest out-of-sample prediction accuracy. The results suggest that the non-linear machine learning methods, especially the ensemble methods, add considerable value to existent credit risk prediction accuracy and enable CDS shadow pricing for companies missing those securities.
Author: Nan Hu
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513525182
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 37
Get Book Here
Book Description
We compared the predictive performance of a series of machine learning and traditional methods for monthly CDS spreads, using firms’ accounting-based, market-based and macroeconomics variables for a time period of 2006 to 2016. We find that ensemble machine learning methods (Bagging, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest) strongly outperform other estimators, and Bagging particularly stands out in terms of accuracy. Traditional credit risk models using OLS techniques have the lowest out-of-sample prediction accuracy. The results suggest that the non-linear machine learning methods, especially the ensemble methods, add considerable value to existent credit risk prediction accuracy and enable CDS shadow pricing for companies missing those securities.
Author: Nan Hu
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513524089
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 37
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Book Description
We compared the predictive performance of a series of machine learning and traditional methods for monthly CDS spreads, using firms’ accounting-based, market-based and macroeconomics variables for a time period of 2006 to 2016. We find that ensemble machine learning methods (Bagging, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest) strongly outperform other estimators, and Bagging particularly stands out in terms of accuracy. Traditional credit risk models using OLS techniques have the lowest out-of-sample prediction accuracy. The results suggest that the non-linear machine learning methods, especially the ensemble methods, add considerable value to existent credit risk prediction accuracy and enable CDS shadow pricing for companies missing those securities.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 140
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Book Description
Popular Mechanics inspires, instructs and influences readers to help them master the modern world. Whether it’s practical DIY home-improvement tips, gadgets and digital technology, information on the newest cars or the latest breakthroughs in science -- PM is the ultimate guide to our high-tech lifestyle.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475589581
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 160
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Book Description
The Global Financial Stability Report examines current risks facing the global financial system and policy actions that may mitigate these. It analyzes the key challenges facing financial and nonfinancial firms as they continue to repair their balance sheets. Chapter 2 takes a closer look at whether sovereign credit default swaps markets are good indicators of sovereign credit risk. Chapter 3 examines unconventional monetary policy in some depth, including the policies pursued by the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Author: Joanne Quinn
Publisher: Corwin Press
ISBN: 1544385404
Category : Education
Languages : en
Pages : 297
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Book Description
The leading experts in system change and learning, with their school-based partners around the world, have created this essential companion to their runaway best-seller, Deep Learning: Engage the World Change the World. This hands-on guide provides a roadmap for building capacity in teachers, schools, districts, and systems to design deep learning, measure progress, and assess conditions needed to activate and sustain innovation. Dive Into Deep Learning: Tools for Engagement is rich with resources educators need to construct and drive meaningful deep learning experiences in order to develop the kind of mindset and know-how that is crucial to becoming a problem-solving change agent in our global society. Designed in full color, this easy-to-use guide is loaded with tools, tips, protocols, and real-world examples. It includes: • A framework for deep learning that provides a pathway to develop the six global competencies needed to flourish in a complex world — character, citizenship, collaboration, communication, creativity, and critical thinking. • Learning progressions to help educators analyze student work and measure progress. • Learning design rubrics, templates and examples for incorporating the four elements of learning design: learning partnerships, pedagogical practices, learning environments, and leveraging digital. • Conditions rubrics, teacher self-assessment tools, and planning guides to help educators build, mobilize, and sustain deep learning in schools and districts. Learn about, improve, and expand your world of learning. Put the joy back into learning for students and adults alike. Dive into deep learning to create learning experiences that give purpose, unleash student potential, and transform not only learning, but life itself.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1616352477
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 94
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Book Description
The April 2012 Global Financial Stability Report assesses changes in risks to financial stability over the past six months, focusing on sovereign vulnerabilities, risks stemming from private sector deleveraging, and assessing the continued resilience of emerging markets. The report probes the implications of recent reforms in the financial system for market perception of safe assets, and investigates the growing public and private costs of increased longevity risk from aging populations.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 104
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Book Description
The Advocate is a lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender (LGBT) monthly newsmagazine. Established in 1967, it is the oldest continuing LGBT publication in the United States.
Author: Mr.Stijn Claessens
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475561008
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 66
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Book Description
This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.
Author: Jiri Podpiera
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455200573
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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Book Description
This paper attempts to identify the fundamental variables that drive the credit default swaps during the initial phase of distress in selected European Large Complex Financial Institutions (LCFIs). It uses yearly data over 2004 - 08 for 29 European LCFIs. The results from a dynamic panel data estimator show that LCFIs’ business models, earnings potential, and economic uncertainty (represented by market expectations about the future risks of a particular LCFI and market views on prospects for economic growth) are among the most significant determinants of credit risk. The findings of the paper are broadly consistent with those of the literature on bank failure, where the determinants of the latter include the entire CAMELS structure - that is, Capital Adequacy, Asset Quality, Management Quality, Earnings Potential, Liquidity, and Sensitivity to Market Risk. By establishing a link between the financial and market fundamentals of LCFIs and their CDS spreads, the paper offers a potential tool for fundamentals-based vulnerability and early warning system for LCFIs.
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309142393
Category : Law
Languages : en
Pages : 348
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Book Description
Scores of talented and dedicated people serve the forensic science community, performing vitally important work. However, they are often constrained by lack of adequate resources, sound policies, and national support. It is clear that change and advancements, both systematic and scientific, are needed in a number of forensic science disciplines to ensure the reliability of work, establish enforceable standards, and promote best practices with consistent application. Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States: A Path Forward provides a detailed plan for addressing these needs and suggests the creation of a new government entity, the National Institute of Forensic Science, to establish and enforce standards within the forensic science community. The benefits of improving and regulating the forensic science disciplines are clear: assisting law enforcement officials, enhancing homeland security, and reducing the risk of wrongful conviction and exoneration. Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States gives a full account of what is needed to advance the forensic science disciplines, including upgrading of systems and organizational structures, better training, widespread adoption of uniform and enforceable best practices, and mandatory certification and accreditation programs. While this book provides an essential call-to-action for congress and policy makers, it also serves as a vital tool for law enforcement agencies, criminal prosecutors and attorneys, and forensic science educators.
