Comparing Alternative Procedures for Estimating Random Coefficient Logit Demand Models PDF Download
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Author: Zsolt Sandor
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
We compare several nested fixed point and optimization procedures for computing the estimator of the widely-used empirical market demand model developed by Berry et al. (1995). It is well-known that the optimization may often lead to multiple local optima, which, if ignored, can lead to erroneous policy conclusions. By combining the frequencies of finding the global minima and the computing times, we propose a new indicator that provides the computing time needed for obtaining the global minima. Using this indicator, we find that the Spectral and Squarem methods (Reynaerts et al., 2012) outperform the benchmark contraction iterations method and the MPEC (Dubé et al., 2012) and ABLP (Lee and Seo, 2015) methods. Moreover, in some practically highly relevant cases, two derivative-free optimization algorithms, which require less calculations and coding than derivative-based algorithms, outperform the best derivative-based methods. A simple argument suggests that the latter statement is likely to be true for other versions of the model as well.
Author: Zsolt Sandor
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
We compare several nested fixed point and optimization procedures for computing the estimator of the widely-used empirical market demand model developed by Berry et al. (1995). It is well-known that the optimization may often lead to multiple local optima, which, if ignored, can lead to erroneous policy conclusions. By combining the frequencies of finding the global minima and the computing times, we propose a new indicator that provides the computing time needed for obtaining the global minima. Using this indicator, we find that the Spectral and Squarem methods (Reynaerts et al., 2012) outperform the benchmark contraction iterations method and the MPEC (Dubé et al., 2012) and ABLP (Lee and Seo, 2015) methods. Moreover, in some practically highly relevant cases, two derivative-free optimization algorithms, which require less calculations and coding than derivative-based algorithms, outperform the best derivative-based methods. A simple argument suggests that the latter statement is likely to be true for other versions of the model as well.
Author: Kenneth Train
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 0521766559
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 399
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Book Description
This book describes the new generation of discrete choice methods, focusing on the many advances that are made possible by simulation. Researchers use these statistical methods to examine the choices that consumers, households, firms, and other agents make. Each of the major models is covered: logit, generalized extreme value, or GEV (including nested and cross-nested logits), probit, and mixed logit, plus a variety of specifications that build on these basics. Simulation-assisted estimation procedures are investigated and compared, including maximum stimulated likelihood, method of simulated moments, and method of simulated scores. Procedures for drawing from densities are described, including variance reduction techniques such as anithetics and Halton draws. Recent advances in Bayesian procedures are explored, including the use of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and its variant Gibbs sampling. The second edition adds chapters on endogeneity and expectation-maximization (EM) algorithms. No other book incorporates all these fields, which have arisen in the past 25 years. The procedures are applicable in many fields, including energy, transportation, environmental studies, health, labor, and marketing.
Author: Hyungsik Roger Moon
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 57
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Book Description
We extend the Berry, Levinsohn and Pakes (BLP, 1995) random coefficients discrete choice demand model, which underlies much recent empirical work in IO. We add interactive fixed effects in the form of a factor structure on the unobserved product characteristics. The interactive fixed effects can be arbitrarily correlated with the observed product characteristics (including price), which accommodates endogeneity and, at the same time, captures strong persistence in market shares across products and markets. We propose a two-step least squares-minimum distance (LS-MD) procedure to calculate the estimator. Our estimator is easy to compute, and Monte Carlo simulations show that it performs well. We consider an empirical illustration to US automobile demand.
Author: Zhentong Lu
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 71
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Book Description
In this paper, we propose a two-step semi-nonparametric estimator for the widely used random coefficient logit demand model. In the first step, exploiting the structure of logit choice probabilities, we transform the full demand system into a partial linear model and estimate the fixed (non-random) coefficients using standard linear sieve generalized method of moment (GMM). In the second step, we construct a sieve minimum distance (MD) estimator to uncover the distribution of random coefficients nonparametrically. We establish the asymptotic properties of the estimator and show the semi-nonparametric identification of the model in a large market environment. Monte Carlo simulations and empirical illustrations support the theoretical results and demonstrate the usefulness of our estimator in practice.
Author:
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Category : Multilevel models (Statistics)
Languages : en
Pages : 71
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Book Description
We propose a simple nonparametric mixtures estimator for recovering the joint distribution of parameter heterogeneity in economic models, such as the random coefficients logit. The estimator is based on linear regression subject to linear inequality constraints, and is robust, easy to program and computationally attractive compared to alternative estimators for random coefficient models. We prove consistency and provide the rate of convergence under deterministic and stochastic choices for the sieve approximating space. We present a Monte Carlo study and an empirical application to dynamic programming discrete choice with a serially-correlated unobserved state variable.
Author: Matthew Shum
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 981310967X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 154
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Book Description
Economic Models for Industrial Organization focuses on the specification and estimation of econometric models for research in industrial organization. In recent decades, empirical work in industrial organization has moved towards dynamic and equilibrium models, involving econometric methods which have features distinct from those used in other areas of applied economics. These lecture notes, aimed for a first or second-year PhD course, motivate and explain these econometric methods, starting from simple models and building to models with the complexity observed in typical research papers. The covered topics include discrete-choice demand analysis, models of dynamic behavior and dynamic games, multiple equilibria in entry games and partial identification, and auction models.
Author: Peter Rossi
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 0691145326
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 218
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Book Description
This book reviews and develops Bayesian non-parametric and semi-parametric methods for applications in microeconometrics and quantitative marketing. Most econometric models used in microeconomics and marketing applications involve arbitrary distributional assumptions. As more data becomes available, a natural desire to provide methods that relax these assumptions arises. Peter Rossi advocates a Bayesian approach in which specific distributional assumptions are replaced with more flexible distributions based on mixtures of normals. The Bayesian approach can use either a large but fixed number of normal components in the mixture or an infinite number bounded only by the sample size. By using flexible distributional approximations instead of fixed parametric models, the Bayesian approach can reap the advantages of an efficient method that models all of the structure in the data while retaining desirable smoothing properties. Non-Bayesian non-parametric methods often require additional ad hoc rules to avoid "overfitting," in which resulting density approximates are nonsmooth. With proper priors, the Bayesian approach largely avoids overfitting, while retaining flexibility. This book provides methods for assessing informative priors that require only simple data normalizations. The book also applies the mixture of the normals approximation method to a number of important models in microeconometrics and marketing, including the non-parametric and semi-parametric regression models, instrumental variables problems, and models of heterogeneity. In addition, the author has written a free online software package in R, "bayesm," which implements all of the non-parametric models discussed in the book.
Author: Peter E. Rossi
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470863684
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 368
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Book Description
The past decade has seen a dramatic increase in the use of Bayesian methods in marketing due, in part, to computational and modelling breakthroughs, making its implementation ideal for many marketing problems. Bayesian analyses can now be conducted over a wide range of marketing problems, from new product introduction to pricing, and with a wide variety of different data sources. Bayesian Statistics and Marketing describes the basic advantages of the Bayesian approach, detailing the nature of the computational revolution. Examples contained include household and consumer panel data on product purchases and survey data, demand models based on micro-economic theory and random effect models used to pool data among respondents. The book also discusses the theory and practical use of MCMC methods. Written by the leading experts in the field, this unique book: Presents a unified treatment of Bayesian methods in marketing, with common notation and algorithms for estimating the models. Provides a self-contained introduction to Bayesian methods. Includes case studies drawn from the authors’ recent research to illustrate how Bayesian methods can be extended to apply to many important marketing problems. Is accompanied by an R package, bayesm, which implements all of the models and methods in the book and includes many datasets. In addition the book’s website hosts datasets and R code for the case studies. Bayesian Statistics and Marketing provides a platform for researchers in marketing to analyse their data with state-of-the-art methods and develop new models of consumer behaviour. It provides a unified reference for cutting-edge marketing researchers, as well as an invaluable guide to this growing area for both graduate students and professors, alike.
Author: Sungho Park
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 38
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Book Description
We propose a Simulated Maximum Likelihood estimation method for the random coefficient logit model using aggregate data, accounting for heterogeneity and endogeneity. Our method allows for two sources of randomness in observed market shares - unobserved product characteristics and sampling error. Because of the latter, our method is suitable when sample sizes underlying the shares are finite. By contrast, the commonly used approach of Berry, Levinsohn and Pakes (1995) assumes that observed shares have no sampling error. Our method can be viewed as a generalization of Villas-Boas and Winer (1999) and is closely related to the quot;control functionquot; approach of Petrin and Train (2004). We show that the proposed method provides unbiased and efficient estimates of demand parameters. We also obtain endogeneity test statistics as a by-product, including the direction of endogeneity bias. The model can be extended to incorporate Markov regime-switching dynamics in parameters and is open to other extensions based on Maximum Likelihood. The benefits of the proposed approach are achieved by assuming normality of the unobserved demand attributes, an assumption that imposes constraints on the types of pricing behaviors that are accommodated. However, we find in simulations that demand estimates are fairly robust to violations of these assumptions.
Author: Joel Horowitz
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
The multinomial logit model with random coefficients is widely used in applied research. This paper is concerned with estimating a random coefficients logit model in which the distribution of each coefficient is characterized by finitely many parameters. Some of these parameters may be zero. The paper gives conditions under which with probability approaching 1 as the sample size approaches infinity, penalized maximum likelihood (PML) estimation with the adaptive LASSO (AL) penalty function distinguishes correctly between zero and non-zero parameters in a random coefficients logit model. If one or more parameters are zero, then PML with the AL penalty function often reduces the asymptotic mean-square estimation error of any continuously differentiable function of the model’s parameters, such as a market share or an elasticity. The paper describes a method for computing the PML estimates of a random coefficients logit model. It also presents the results of Monte Carlo experiments that illustrate the numerical performance of the PML estimates. Finally, it presents the results of PML estimation of a random coefficients logit model of choice among brands of butter and margarine in the British groceries market.
