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Author: Nagwa Riad
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1463973101
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 87
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Book Description
Changing Patterns of Global Trade outlines the factors underlying important shifts in global trade that have occurred in recent decades. The emergence of global supply chains and their increasing role in trade patterns allowed emerging market economies to boost their inputs in high-technology exports and is associated with increased trade interconnectedness.The analysis points to one important trend taking place over the last decade: the emergence of China as a major systemically important trading hub, reflecting not only the size of trade but also the increase in number of its significant trading partners.
Author: Nagwa Riad
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1463973101
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 87
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Book Description
Changing Patterns of Global Trade outlines the factors underlying important shifts in global trade that have occurred in recent decades. The emergence of global supply chains and their increasing role in trade patterns allowed emerging market economies to boost their inputs in high-technology exports and is associated with increased trade interconnectedness.The analysis points to one important trend taking place over the last decade: the emergence of China as a major systemically important trading hub, reflecting not only the size of trade but also the increase in number of its significant trading partners.
Author: Cristina Constantinescu
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498399134
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Book Description
This paper focuses on the sluggish growth of world trade relative to income growth in recent years. The analysis uses an empirical strategy based on an error correction model to assess whether the global trade slowdown is structural or cyclical. An estimate of the relationship between trade and income in the past four decades reveals that the long-term trade elasticity rose sharply in the 1990s, but declined significantly in the 2000s even before the global financial crisis. These results suggest that trade is growing slowly not only because of slow growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but also because of a structural change in the trade-GDP relationship in recent years. The available evidence suggests that the explanation may lie in the slowing pace of international vertical specialization rather than increasing protection or the changing composition of trade and GDP.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498338763
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 70
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Book Description
The past few decades have seen important shifts that have reshaped the global trade landscape. As a share of global output, trade is now at almost three times the level in the early 1950s, in large part driven by the integration of rapidly growing emerging market economies (EMEs). The expansion in trade is mostly accounted for by growth in noncommodity exports, especially of high-technology products such as computers and electronics. It is also characterized by a growing role of global supply chains and an ongoing shift of technology content toward EMEs. These developments in global trade have been associated with growing trade interconnectedness and carry important implications for trade patterns, in particular in response to relative price changes. The aim of this paper is to outline the factors underlying these changes and analyze their implications for the outlook for global trade patterns.
Author: Paolo Mauro
Publisher: Columbia University Press
ISBN: 0881327174
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 221
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Book Description
The world is poised on the threshold of economic changes that will reduce the income gap between the rich and poor on a global scale while reshaping patterns of consumption. Rapid economic growth in emerging-market economies is projected to enable consumers worldwide to spend proportionately less on food and more on transportation, goods, and services, which will in turn strain the global infrastructure and accelerate climate change. The largest gains will be made in poorer parts of the world, chiefly sub-Saharan Africa and India, followed by China and the advanced economies. In this new study, Tomas Hellebrandt and Paulo Mauro detail how this important moment in world history will unfold and serve as a warning to policymakers to prepare for the profound effects on the world economy and the planet.
Author: Richard Dobbs
Publisher: PublicAffairs
ISBN: 1610397622
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 256
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Book Description
Our intuition on how the world works could well be wrong. We are surprised when new competitors burst on the scene, or businesses protected by large and deep moats find their defenses easily breached, or vast new markets are conjured from nothing. Trend lines resemble saw-tooth mountain ridges. The world not only feels different. The data tell us it is different. Based on years of research by the directors of the McKinsey Global Institute, No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Forces Breaking all the Trends is a timely and important analysis of how we need to reset our intuition as a result of four forces colliding and transforming the global economy: the rise of emerging markets, the accelerating impact of technology on the natural forces of market competition, an aging world population, and accelerating flows of trade, capital and people. Our intuitions formed during a uniquely benign period for the world economy -- often termed the Great Moderation. Asset prices were rising, cost of capital was falling, labour and resources were abundant, and generation after generation was growing up more prosperous than their parents. But the Great Moderation has gone. The cost of capital may rise. The price of everything from grain to steel may become more volatile. The world's labor force could shrink. Individuals, particularly those with low job skills, are at risk of growing up poorer than their parents. What sets No Ordinary Disruption apart is depth of analysis combined with lively writing informed by surprising, memorable insights that enable us to quickly grasp the disruptive forces at work. For evidence of the shift to emerging markets, consider the startling fact that, by 2025, a single regional city in China -- Tianjin -- will have a GDP equal to that of the Sweden, of that, in the decades ahead, half of the world's economic growth will come from 440 cities including Kumasi in Ghana or Santa Carina in Brazil that most executives today would be hard-pressed to locate on a map. What we are now seeing is no ordinary disruption but the new facts of business life -- facts that require executives and leaders at all levels to reset their operating assumptions and management intuition.
Author: Leonie L. Stone
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
ISBN: 1000524884
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 105
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Book Description
First Published in 1997. The explosive growth of world trade in the last three decades is unparalleled in history, both due to the rapid increase in volume and to the change in the composition of trade. Historically, trade between nations has consisted largely of exchanges of products that were very different from each other, neither closely substitutable in consumption nor production processes. However, in this latest period of trade expansion, the majority of the increase in world trade has been in manufactured goods, many of which are highly substitutable differentiated products. This has led to growth in intra-industry trade, the cross-shipment of similar products. This study links increased shares of intra-industry trade with growth in newly-industrializing countries. To examine these questions, this study first gives a review of existing literature, both theoretical and empirical. Five hypotheses on intra-industry trade are then discussed. A model is then presented and estimated, using data on bilateral trade between the United States and its five major trading partners, Canada, Japan, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom.
Author: OECD
Publisher: OECD Publishing
ISBN: 9264113088
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 351
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Book Description
This book collects OECD work that builds on recent contributions to the theory and empirics of comparative advantage, putting particular emphasis on the role policy can play in shaping trade.
Author: Hyeon-Wook Kim
Publisher: Brookings Institution Press
ISBN: 0815737769
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 376
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Book Description
Growth in a Time of Change: Global and Country Perspectives on a New Agenda is the first of a two-book research project that addresses new issues and challenges for economic growth arising from ongoing significant change in the world economy, focusing especially on technological transformation. The project is a collaboration between the Brookings Institution and the Korea Development Institute. Part I of the book looks at key elements of change from a global perspective. It analyzes how technological change, shifts in investment, and demographic transition are affecting potential economic growth globally and across major groups of economies. The contributors explore possible scenarios for the global economy as the digital revolution drives rapid technological change, including impacts on growth, jobs, income distribution, trade balances, and capital flows. Technology is changing the global configuration of comparative advantage and globalization increasingly has a digital dimension. The implications of these developments for the future of sectors such as manufacturing and for international trade are assessed. Part II of the book addresses new issues in the growth agenda from the perspective of an individual major economy: South Korea. The chapters in this section analyze how macroeconomic developments and technological change are influencing the behavior of households and firms in terms of their decisions to consume, save, and invest. Rising income and wealth inequalities are a major concern globally. Against this backdrop, trends in the labor income share and wage inequalities in South Korea are analyzed in terms of the role played by technology, industrial concentration, shifts in labor demand and supply, and other factors. Throughout the book, the contributors, in their analysis of both global and Korea-specific trends and prospects, place emphasis on drawing implications for policy.
Author: Caf Dowlah
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1317447921
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 320
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Book Description
Available research suggests that less developed countries have significant competitive advantage over developed countries in three major areas of international trade: agriculture, textiles and clothing (T&C), and cross-border labor mobility. Incidentally, these are also the trade sectors which experienced widespread protectionist measures, especially in developed world, for decade after decade. Under the World Trade Organization (WTO), which replaced the General Agreement on Tariff and Trade (GATT) in 1995, much of the restrictions in T&C trade has been phased out, but still this sector faces much higher tariff and non-tariff barriers than any other manufacturing sector in world economy. The agricultural sector also experienced significant dismantling of deeply entrenched trade barriers under the WTO over the course of last two decades, but the sector still remains plagued with quite extensive domestic supports, export subsidies, and tariff barriers. At the same time, despite both theoretical expositions and empirical trends point to significant potential gains from cross-border labor mobility, the sector remains mired in a complex quagmire of economic and political restrictions around the world. Thus, all three sectors in which less developed countries have exports interests still remain less liberalized than the sectors in which developed countries have exports interests. This book provides an in-depth and up-to-date scholarly analysis of all three trade sectors—agriculture, T&C and cross-border labor mobility—with a penetrating scrutiny of historical backgrounds and developments, crosscurrents of interests and perspectives of both developed and developing countries, and evolving trade patterns and potentials in a more liberalized and globalized world economy. The book also identifies critical economic issues and options for less developed countries in the WTO negotiations for further liberalization of agriculture, T&C, and cross-border labor mobility. This volume will be an important point of reference for students, scholars, and practitioners of international trade, economic development, development economics, and WTO-related issues.
Author: Mr.Koshy Mathai
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475531710
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 84
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Book Description
China’s trade patterns are evolving. While it started in light manufacturing and the assembly of more sophisticated products as part of global supply chains, China is now moving up the value chain, “onshoring” the production of higher-value-added upstream products and moving into more sophisticated downstream products as well. At the same time, with its wages rising, it has started to exit some lower-end, more labor-intensive sectors. These changes are taking place in the broader context of China’s rebalancing—away from exports and toward domestic demand, and within the latter, away from investment and toward consumption—and as a consequence, demand for some commodity imports is slowing, while consumption imports are slowly rising. The evolution of Chinese trade, investment, and consumption patterns offers opportunities and challenges to low-wage, low-income countries, including China’s neighbors in the Mekong region. Cambodia, Lao P.D.R., Myanmar, and Vietnam (the CLMV) are all open economies that are highly integrated with China. Rebalancing in China may mean less of a role for commodity exports from the region, but at the same time, the CLMV’s low labor costs suggest that manufacturing assembly for export could take off as China becomes less competitive, and as China itself demands more consumption items. Labor costs, however, are only part of the story. The CLMV will need to strengthen their infrastructure, education, governance, and trade regimes, and also run sound macro policies in order to capitalize fully on the opportunities presented by China’s transformation. With such policy efforts, the CLMV could see their trade and integration with global supply chains grow dramatically in the coming years.
