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Author: Robert S. Erikson
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226922162
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 221
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Book Description
In presidential elections, do voters cast their ballots for the candidates whose platform and positions best match their own? Or is the race for president of the United States come down largely to who runs the most effective campaign? It’s a question those who study elections have been considering for years with no clear resolution. In The Timeline of Presidential Elections, Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien reveal for the first time how both factors come into play. Erikson and Wlezien have amassed data from close to two thousand national polls covering every presidential election from 1952 to 2008, allowing them to see how outcomes take shape over the course of an election year. Polls from the beginning of the year, they show, have virtually no predictive power. By mid-April, when the candidates have been identified and matched in pollsters’ trial heats, preferences have come into focus—and predicted the winner in eleven of the fifteen elections. But a similar process of forming favorites takes place in the last six months, during which voters’ intentions change only gradually, with particular events—including presidential debates—rarely resulting in dramatic change. Ultimately, Erikson and Wlezien show that it is through campaigns that voters are made aware of—or not made aware of—fundamental factors like candidates’ policy positions that determine which ticket will get their votes. In other words, fundamentals matter, but only because of campaigns. Timely and compelling, this book will force us to rethink our assumptions about presidential elections.
Author: Robert S. Erikson
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226922162
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 221
Get Book Here
Book Description
In presidential elections, do voters cast their ballots for the candidates whose platform and positions best match their own? Or is the race for president of the United States come down largely to who runs the most effective campaign? It’s a question those who study elections have been considering for years with no clear resolution. In The Timeline of Presidential Elections, Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien reveal for the first time how both factors come into play. Erikson and Wlezien have amassed data from close to two thousand national polls covering every presidential election from 1952 to 2008, allowing them to see how outcomes take shape over the course of an election year. Polls from the beginning of the year, they show, have virtually no predictive power. By mid-April, when the candidates have been identified and matched in pollsters’ trial heats, preferences have come into focus—and predicted the winner in eleven of the fifteen elections. But a similar process of forming favorites takes place in the last six months, during which voters’ intentions change only gradually, with particular events—including presidential debates—rarely resulting in dramatic change. Ultimately, Erikson and Wlezien show that it is through campaigns that voters are made aware of—or not made aware of—fundamental factors like candidates’ policy positions that determine which ticket will get their votes. In other words, fundamentals matter, but only because of campaigns. Timely and compelling, this book will force us to rethink our assumptions about presidential elections.
Author: Benjamin Wittes
Publisher: Brookings Institution Press
ISBN: 0815721986
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 249
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Book Description
"Campaign 2012: Twelve Independent Ideas for Improving American Public Policy" is an indispensable guide to the questions facing White House hopefuls in 2012, as well as the challenges awaiting the winner. It presents authoritative analyses of a dozen key policy issues currently testing the nation: -domestic economic growth -America's role in the world -the budget deficit -China relations -health care -Afghanistan and Pakistan -federalism -Iran -reforming government institutions -the Middle East -climate change -terrorism This is truly Brookings at its best--independent expert analysis, presented in an accessible manner and offering viable solutions.
Author: Pippa Norris
Publisher: SAGE
ISBN: 0857022121
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 233
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Book Description
To what extent are the techniques of campaigning and media management critical to the outcome of modern elections? This book brings together a group of leading scholars to provide a comprehensive analysis of the role and impact of political communications during election campaigns. They set the context of election campaigning in Britain, and the methodology used to undertand media effects, review party strategies and resulting media coverage, and draw together evidence of the impact of the 1997 British General Election campaign, analyzing how far television and the press media influenced the public′s civic engagement, agenda priorities, and party preferences.
Author: John Sides
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 0691163634
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 360
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Book Description
A unique "moneyball" look at the 2012 U.S. presidential contest between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney "Game changer." We heard it so many times during the 2012 U.S. presidential election. But what actually made a difference in the contest—and what was just hype? In this groundbreaking book, John Sides and Lynn Vavreck tell the dramatic story of the election—with a big difference. Using an unusual "moneyball" approach and drawing on extensive quantitative data, they look beyond the anecdote, folklore, and conventional wisdom that often pass for election analysis to separate what was truly important from what was irrelevant. The Gamble combines this data with the best social science research and colorful on-the-ground reporting, providing the most accurate and precise account of the election yet written—and the only book of its kind. In a new preface, the authors reflect on the place of The Gamble in the tradition of presidential election studies, its reception to date, and possible paths for future social science research.
Author: Michael Hastings
Publisher: Penguin
ISBN: 1101600896
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 161
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Book Description
One of America’s most important young journalists delivers the first substantial piece of narrative nonfiction to chronicle the hard-fought closing months of the 2012 presidential campaign in PANIC 2012. Michael Hastings – BuzzFeed correspondent at large; Rolling Stone contributor; George Polk Award winner; and critically acclaimed, New York Times-bestselling author of The Operators – presents an in-your-face, on-the-ground, real-time, singular account of how the Obama campaign privately panicked and ultimately recovered after the President’s disastrous performance in his first debate with Mitt Romney. In the tradition of iconoclastic journalists such as Hunter S. Thompson, Richard Ben Cramer, and P. J. O’Rourke, Hastings offers an edgy, rollicking, wholly original portrayal of the enormous and intense political operation that is an American presidential campaign.
Author: Calvin Trillin
Publisher: Random House Incorporated
ISBN: 0812993683
Category : Humor
Languages : en
Pages : 177
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Book Description
Presents a humorous ode to the 2012 presidential election that likens the campaign to a three-ring circus and includes riffs on figures ranging from Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich to Rick Perry and Rick Santorum.
Author: Rasmus Kleis Nielsen
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400840449
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 250
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Book Description
Political campaigns today are won or lost in the so-called ground war--the strategic deployment of teams of staffers, volunteers, and paid part-timers who work the phones and canvass block by block, house by house, voter by voter. Ground Wars provides an in-depth ethnographic portrait of two such campaigns, New Jersey Democrat Linda Stender's and that of Democratic Congressman Jim Himes of Connecticut, who both ran for Congress in 2008. Rasmus Kleis Nielsen examines how American political operatives use "personalized political communication" to engage with the electorate, and weighs the implications of ground war tactics for how we understand political campaigns and what it means to participate in them. He shows how ground wars are waged using resources well beyond those of a given candidate and their staff. These include allied interest groups and civic associations, party-provided technical infrastructures that utilize large databases with detailed individual-level information for targeting voters, and armies of dedicated volunteers and paid part-timers. Nielsen challenges the notion that political communication in America must be tightly scripted, controlled, and conducted by a select coterie of professionals. Yet he also quashes the romantic idea that canvassing is a purer form of grassroots politics. In today's political ground wars, Nielsen demonstrates, even the most ordinary-seeming volunteer knocking at your door is backed up by high-tech targeting technologies and party expertise. Ground Wars reveals how personalized political communication is profoundly influencing electoral outcomes and transforming American democracy.
Author: Glenn David Brasher
Publisher: Univ of North Carolina Press
ISBN: 0807835447
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 298
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Book Description
The Peninsula Campaign and the Necessity of Emancipation
Author: Erica Chenoweth
Publisher: Columbia University Press
ISBN: 0231527489
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 451
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Book Description
For more than a century, from 1900 to 2006, campaigns of nonviolent resistance were more than twice as effective as their violent counterparts in achieving their stated goals. By attracting impressive support from citizens, whose activism takes the form of protests, boycotts, civil disobedience, and other forms of nonviolent noncooperation, these efforts help separate regimes from their main sources of power and produce remarkable results, even in Iran, Burma, the Philippines, and the Palestinian Territories. Combining statistical analysis with case studies of specific countries and territories, Erica Chenoweth and Maria J. Stephan detail the factors enabling such campaigns to succeed and, sometimes, causing them to fail. They find that nonviolent resistance presents fewer obstacles to moral and physical involvement and commitment, and that higher levels of participation contribute to enhanced resilience, greater opportunities for tactical innovation and civic disruption (and therefore less incentive for a regime to maintain its status quo), and shifts in loyalty among opponents' erstwhile supporters, including members of the military establishment. Chenoweth and Stephan conclude that successful nonviolent resistance ushers in more durable and internally peaceful democracies, which are less likely to regress into civil war. Presenting a rich, evidentiary argument, they originally and systematically compare violent and nonviolent outcomes in different historical periods and geographical contexts, debunking the myth that violence occurs because of structural and environmental factors and that it is necessary to achieve certain political goals. Instead, the authors discover, violent insurgency is rarely justifiable on strategic grounds.
Author: Michael P. McNamara
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781432787325
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 264
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Book Description
Used in campaigns and classrooms throughout the United States, The Political Campaign Desk Reference is synonymous with planning and winning. Whether you are a candidate for office or just helping a campaign, the Political Campaign Desk Reference will make your team stronger. From planning the early stages of the campaign and asking the basic questions to mapping out the campaigns winning message and building a budget and time line, the Political Campaign Desk Reference covers it all. An entire chapter dedicated to fundraising will help every organization become better at raising money. If you have The Political Campaign Desk Reference, be glad. If your opponent has The Political Campaign Desk Reference, then get a copy for yourself.
